Paul Baustista wrote:IT WAS supposed to be in the 50s today. the models didnt get it right. and thats less than 12 hours. so it amazes me that you have people on this board model hugging the gfs for something 5-6 days away. if the models cant get our temps right 12-24 hours ahead of time how can you trust a model for 5-6 days out? quit model hugging people
Earlier this week, the GFS was indicating highs in the 40s today with light rain after a frontal passage this morning. The high today was in the mid 60s this morning. If anyone forecast the temp to hit the 50s this afternoon then he/she wasn't looking at any model guidance.
In fact, here's the GFS meteogram from yesterday morning, indicating temps steadily falling into the low 40s with light rain this afternoon.
The models have done fairly well once the event is within 2-3 days. Beyond then, there will likely be some changes in the projections. Model trends are a good indication of the changes to come. You can't ignore the trends.