December-Wet/Stormy New Years Eve Ahead

[C2G]

Nice soaking rains most of the day, evening, and now the wee hours. Very light to somewhat moderate at times.

[srainhoutx]

It looks like the upper trough/cold front is pushing E across Texas and cooler air will return for the weekend...

[wxman57]

Another 0.91" at my house in Westbury overnight. That makes 61.04" for the year - the most rain I've recorded in a year since I moved here in 1980.

[jasons2k]

Wow, I guess I wasn't paying attention. I was hoping for more rain today with the front and now I see it's already well offshore and pushing into Louisiana. I'm almost afraid to check the rain gauge.

[srainhoutx]

Oklahoma City and points E are experiencing a heavy burst of snow as the cold front sweeps through.

[jasons2k]

Total for yesterday and overnight = .06"...

[srainhoutx]

Time for a bit more attention to the New Years Eve time frame as we ring out the year 2012 and ring in 2013. The guidance is in fairly good agreement that the trough off California will split into two pieces of energy. One piece will travel across the Great Basin into the Southern Rockies/Southern Plains while a second piece drops further S and treks E over Northern Mexico and across Texas into Louisiana. With many folks planning activities for New Years Eve, a wet and potentially stormy evening into the overnight hours is lurking. The SPC has outlined an area from the Valley/Middle and Upper Texas Coast into SW Louisiana for a chance of heavier storms as a potent jet streak puts our Southern Region in a favorable right rear quadrant. While severe storms are not expected at this time, it is not out of the question that some storms may reach borderline severe criteria making for a messy New Years Eve when many folks will be out and about ringing in the New Year.

I also want to wish everyone a Very Happy New Year as we close out 2012. It has been a period of growth and improvements for our KHOU Weather Forum Community and I personally wanted to wish everyone a Joyous, Safe and Prosperous 2013!

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
340 AM EST SAT DEC 29 2012

VALID 12Z SAT DEC 29 2012 - 12Z MON DEC 31 2012

...MODEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...

THE MAJOR PLAYER DURING THE CONCLUDING WEEKEND OF 2012 WILL BE A
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE NORTHEASTERN CORRIDOR OF THE COUNTRY. AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW AN EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. ENOUGH
COLD AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE REGION TO ALLOW SNOW TO BE
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY UP THROUGH
THE UPPER MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. IT APPEARS THE
DIVIDING LINE FOR SNOW WILL OCCUR RIGHT ACROSS THE WASHINGTON D.C.
METRO AREA AND TOWARD THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS TROUGH...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE AFFECTED REGION. THE SNOW
FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS COASTAL UPPER NEW
ENGLAND AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL FALL FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE AND
ANY FURTHER SHIFT INLAND WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE FORECAST
SNOW AMOUNTS. MEANWHILE...THE OTHER ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THE SURGING COLD
FRONT. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST.

THE OTHER REGION OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION.
IN PARTICULAR...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PARTICULARLY FOCUS CLOSER
TO THE COASTLINE WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE SUPPORT SHOULD OCCUR.
HOWEVER...THIS NORTH TO SOUTH MOTION OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT THE MOST
FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL RAIN/SNOW TOTALS. EVENTUALLY THIS UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPLIT INTO TWO WITH SOME OF THE ENERGY TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SPAWN SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED. THE OTHER BATCH
OF ENERGY IS FORECAST TO SINK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH BEFORE EJECTING
EASTWARD AS ANOTHER SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES TO ITS NORTH. WHILE
THE STRONGEST ENERGETICS WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS MEXICO ON
SUNDAY...MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS BY THE
EVENING HOURS.

12292012 HPC QPF d13_fill.gif

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DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CST SAT DEC 29 2012

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MIDDLE TO UPPER TX COAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES ON
MONDAY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER MS
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY.
MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET MONDAY EVENING FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST NEWD INTO SW
LA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT VICTORIA AND GALVESTON AT 03Z/TUE SHOW
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 65 KT. IN SPITE
OF WEAK INSTABILITY...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT BEFORE A LINE OR CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVES OFFSHORE INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 12/29/2012

12292012 SPC day3otlk_0830.gif

[mckinne63]

I also want to wish everyone a Very Happy New Year as we close out 2012. It has been a period of growth and improvements for our KHOU Weather Forum Community and I personally wanted to wish everyone a Joyous, Safe and Prosperous 2013!

Happy New Year to everyone here! While I am not a weather expert or even an amateur I really enjoy coming here and reading and watching.

[skidog40]

snow tonight

[Katdaddy]

Amazing skies this evening. Looks like a Spring severe weather day.

[Katdaddy]

A very Happy New Year to everyone as well. Lets hope for a SE TX snowfall next month. Most important be safe and enjoy. After each storm there is another sunny day.

[Portastorm]

Well this certainly is interesting ... a possibility of some light sleet mixed with light rain today in south central Texas. I wasn't expecting to see that!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
950 AM CST SUN DEC 30 2012

.UPDATE...
INCREASED SKY COVER AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AT A FEW
LOCATIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO BROUGHT LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN WAS
ADVANCING A LITTLE FASTER NEWD THAN EXPECTED. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. DRT
SOUNDING SHOWS A FAIRLY WARM LAYER AT 7-10K FEET...HOWEVER THIS
LAYER IS ALSO VERY DRY...SO WITH EVAPATIVE COOLING...SOME LIGHT
SLEET COULD BE MIXED IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN TODAY

[srainhoutx]

The SPC expands the outlook area regarding storm chances for tomorrow to include portions of Central/the Victoria Crossroads Region and most of SE Texas/SW Louisiana...

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CST SUN DEC 30 2012

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE POSITIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE
CNTRL U.S. WITH BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SE WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE AND WILL MAINTAIN ELY TO SELY TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH MID 60S F DEWPOINTS REACHING THE TX COAST
OVERNIGHT.

WHILE GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER TX DURING THE
DAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND WILL STRETCH FROM ROUGHLY
SHREVEPORT TO LAREDO AT 06Z. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWD TO THE TX
COAST BY 12Z TUE...AND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

...SERN TX...
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MATERIALIZE OVERNIGHT AS A 25 KT SWLY LOW
LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NWD ACROSS SERN TX. AS THE COLD FRONT
DRIFTS S...RAIN AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY JUST N OF THE
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG...IT WILL BE
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE SAGGING BOUNDARY. THIS...COMBINED WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY AND LACK OF SBCAPE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
THREAT.

..JEWELL.. 12/30/2012

[srainhoutx]

It is looking like a very messy New Years Eve as we ring out the 2012. Stay Safe out there gang.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 AM CST MON DEC 31 2012

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL FLATTEN AS CANADIAN TROUGH PIVOTS
SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING JET /100+ KT AT 500 MB/ FROM
CENTRAL TX TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MID-MS VALLEY...EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL LA TO SOUTH
TEXAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN MOIST
ASCENT OVER THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TX AND
WESTERN LA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
ELEVATED...MAINLY POST-FRONTAL STORMS WILL REMAIN IN A POOR LAPSE
RATE/WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT IS ANTICIPATED.

..LEITMAN/EDWARDS.. 12/31/2012

12312012 SPC day1otlk_1300.gif

12312012 HPC QPF fill_94qwbg.gif

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
958 AM CST MON DEC 31 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SE TX WITH A WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS
THE COASTAL COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD -RA CURRENTLY WEST OF THE AREA.
EXPECT PATCHES OF -RA TO BEGIN MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS
MORNING AND SPREADING FURTHER EAST AS THE AFT PROGRESSES. WILL
ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME ELEVATED TSTMS DEVELOP BY
LATE AFT AS LIFT INCREASE ACROSS SE TX. FOR THE UPDATE...LOWERED
POPS SOME ACROSS CENTRAL AND COASTAL AREAS TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS FOR THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND ALSO FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A TOUGH FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFT BECAUSE IT
IS HARD TO TIME WHEN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP (LATE AFT OR
EARLY EVE). A PRETTY GOOD BET WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
W/NW AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT RAIN TO
BE ONGOING OR DEVELOPING AREAWIDE. MADE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER
ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE SW AREAS AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS UP AND DOWN TO DW PTS. WE ARE SEEING QUITE A DW PT
GRADIENT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NE
AND LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

[srainhoutx]

SPC Update:


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST MON DEC 31 2012

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES FROM THE SWRN CONUS INTO THE
PLAINS...A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ALONG THE SE TX COAST WILL
MOVE SLOWLY NWD DURING THE DAY...BEFORE RETURNING SWD AS A COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES BY WELL TO THE
NORTH. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH A
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A LARGE
AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE FRONT BEGINNING THIS EVENING ACROSS SE TX INTO WRN LA.

WHILE WIND PROFILES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE TONIGHT
WOULD OTHERWISE BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...VERY
POOR LAPSE RATES/LIMITED BUOYANCY AND GENERALLY ELEVATED NATURE OF
EXPECTED CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT.

..DEAN/HART.. 12/31/2012

[srainhoutx]

Starting to see a bit more instability and elevated storms are beginning to fire suggesting a very damp and dreary New Years Eve ahead...

[Katdaddy]

Rain will be increasing acros SE TX this evening and into the night. Everyone be safe if you are out driving with the wet streets.

[biggerbyte]

Gosh it is getting bad out there, folks. Fog and rain to go with our New Years traveling and partying. Please be careful.

Happy New Year, everybody.

[Belmer]

Here in Pasadena, my streets don't flood very often, but it flooded all the way across and down the street in about 5-8 minutes with that extremely heavy line of storms that came through. Not up to sidewalk, but still amazing to see it flood that fast. No severe with it, just really heavy rain. A few lightning flashes, but nothing too bad.
Haven't checked rain gauge yet, but probably easily an inch of rain.
Be safe tonight, everyone. Happy New Year!