December-Wet/Stormy New Years Eve Ahead

[unome]

some pretty good storms by Magnolia, lightning all over imap

[srainhoutx]

Lightning with thunder in NW Harris County now. HGX suggests hail also possible with these elevated storms.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1247 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

TXZ177-198-199-212-250715-
WALLER TX-WALKER TX-MONTGOMERY TX-GRIMES TX-
1247 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WALLER...
SOUTHWESTERN WALKER...NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHEASTERN
GRIMES COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CST...

AT 1244 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MAGNOLIA...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PINEHURST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PINEHURST...MAGNOLIA...NEW WAVERLY...MONTGOMERY AND TODD MISSION.

[gocuse22]

Im impressed how these storms are ramping up...and this isnt even the main event....

[Andrew]

Already some stronger storms to the north:

[unome]

pretty good cell growing south of Lake Charles also

[srainhoutx]

Meso discussion coming out...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2203
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN TX...WRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 250701Z - 250800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SUPERCELL TSTMS ARE LIKELY
WITH LARGE HAIL POSING THE PRIMARY THREAT. A WW IS LIKELY PRIOR TO
08Z.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
THAT WAS LOCATED FROM COT NEWD TO JUST NW OF HOU TO NORTH OF BPT AT
06Z. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WAA IN ADVANCE OF
AN INTENSE SEWD-MOVING SHORTWAVE APCHG W TX. THE ENVIRONMENT NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT IS CHARACTERIZED BY 40-45 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 55-60 KT BY 12Z. MUCAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND A SVR TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 08Z.

..BUNTING/MEAD.. 12/25/2012


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

[weatherguy425]

Nice cell moving ashore near Cameron,La. CG increasing in my area ( NE Harris County) as well as eastern Montgomery and Liberty counties.Lift just now making it's presence known across the area... should be interesting to say the least.


Also noticing forward speed is decent with these storm. Sure sign of the craziness in the upper levels and could add to damaging wind threat.

[gocuse22]

Wonder if they will include Ft Bend county when they issue a WX watch

[Andrew]

Storms south and East of Huntsville are showing 30-40kt winds based on radar estimates.

[gocuse22]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch is out...

[Andrew]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 691
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC003-011-019-031-053-069-081-085-115-251500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0691.121225T0740Z-121225T1500Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU
DE SOTO JEFFERSON DAVIS NATCHITOCHES
RED RIVER SABINE VERNON


TXC001-005-027-035-041-051-073-099-145-161-185-199-213-217-225-
241-287-289-291-293-309-313-331-339-347-349-351-361-365-373-395-
401-403-405-407-419-423-455-457-471-477-491-251500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0691.121225T0740Z-121225T1500Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON ANGELINA BELL
BOSQUE BRAZOS BURLESON
CHEROKEE CORYELL FALLS
FREESTONE GRIMES HARDIN
HENDERSON HILL HOUSTON
JASPER LEE LEON
LIBERTY LIMESTONE MADISON
MCLENNAN MILAM MONTGOMERY
NACOGDOCHES NAVARRO NEWTON
ORANGE PANOLA POLK
ROBERTSON RUSK SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO SHELBY
SMITH TRINITY TYLER
WALKER WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON


ATTN...WFO...LCH...EWX...HGX...SHV...FWD...

[Texas Pirate]

Do you think this will eventually affect the bay area?

[David Paul]

Not seeing much re development of storms to the southwest of the big storms in Walker Polk San Jacinto counties. Things may settle down until the upper level low and jet streak get closer along with surface cold front later in the day.

[Texas Pirate]

Thanks. Then I'm off to dreamland - got my NOAA wx radio to jolt me awake if things start to pop in the bay area.
Merry Christmas y'all. And stay safe.

[unome]

SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 691
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN LOUISIANA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 140 AM UNTIL 900 AM CST.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF
TEMPLE TEXAS TO 20 MILES EAST OF FORT POLK LOUISIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY EARLY THIS MORNING AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING SRN HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE W WILL COINCIDE WITH A
MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS TO PROMOTE MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...MEAD

[Andrew]

Not expecting too much development on the south side for the next hour or so. A lot of those storms were associated with the warm front backtracking north. Once the Mid Level trough gets further south and the stronger vorticity gets closer then we should really see stuff develop. Jet Streak should also get closer and increase shear as we head further into the morning hours. Keep an eye out everyone. Going to get some sleep in the meantime. Will get back up around 4.

[unome]

latest PWO from SPC

Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 250815
ALZ000-FLZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-251800-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM EAST TEXAS ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIALLY
STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADOES FROM EAST TEXAS ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHEAST TEXAS

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS EAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST.

AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM
EAST TEXAS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE UNSTABLE AIR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE RAPIDLY EAST AND NORTHEAST.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..MEAD/BUNTING.. 12/25/2012

$$

[Andrew]

Also keep an eye on 500mb levels and watch the trough extend south. Comparing to the 00z GFS, looks a tad slower and its digging a little farther to the west. Something to keep an eye on.

[wxman666]

Currently in California celebrating Christmas with family. Watching this storm closely. Very, VERY concerned about tornadoes back home in NW and N Harris county. It has been awhile since I've seen a forecast like this (2005 if I'm not mistaken). My heart is with my fellow Houstonians. Hang in there guys. if anyone near Cypress can post pictures or give descriptions of what's going on in the area as the storms hit, it would be greatly appreciated, as long as it does not put anyone in harm's way.