December-Wet/Stormy New Years Eve Ahead

[mckinne63]

Ha! And just when I post, the pretty droplets of moisture start to fall from the sky!

[srainhoutx]

Folks in Pasadena, Deer Park & La Porte heads up. Strong cell heading E. Baytown needs to watch that cell as well.

[tireman4]

Wow - US 59 corridor is getting nailed now, esp NE of downtown towards Kingwood/Humble. Enjoy it - you guys stole my thunder - literally

Yep, we did. It is still coming down. Goodness.

[texoz]

Glad you guys in SE Texas are getting rain, but Central TX received little to none. Camp Mabry in Austin had 0.04. Breaks the 50 day streak of no measurable rain, but it's almost cruel.

[Rip76]

This will make it to the coast later?

Unless the line just falls apart, you should get rain.

[Belmer]

I'm back home for winter break (Pasadena) and woke up to a beautiful sound of what sounded like a wide waterfall hitting my roof. No severe weather here though (no hail or wind or even lightning/thunder) just very heavy rain. Haven't checked the rain gauge yet, but my guess is over an inch easily. Still raining, but nothing nearly what it was earlier.

As far as the "cold weather" near Christmas time, folks need to relax and go run off your worries. You can't rely on EVERY model. They flip flop. If you've been in Houston for other winters, you should know this. Models have been consistent of cold weather, I believe we will see that cold weather. Be patient. The pattern change that has been talked about so much is here. And that is very evident from this morning and the much needed rain.

[srainhoutx]

Just shy of 2 inches of rain up here in NW Harris County. I'm hoping for more opportunities for our folks in Central/N Texas as this progressive pattern continues.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2161
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0954 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...SW/CENTRAL LA...SW/CENTRAL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 682...

VALID 161554Z - 161730Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 682
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS. THE WIND THREAT MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO SW/CENTRAL MS BY MIDDAY
AS THE LOW LEVELS WARM/MOISTEN.

DISCUSSION...AN EXTENSIVE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING SLOWLY SEWD ON WEAK CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...WHILE INDIVIDUAL
CELLS MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD ALONG THE LINE. THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER /MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS/ AHEAD OF THE STORMS FROM SE
TX INTO LA WILL SUPPORT REGENERATION OF STORMS ALONG THE COMPOSITE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS/MOISTENS...AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET
DEVELOPS ENEWD FROM TX TOWARD LA/MS. THE OVERALL SETUP STILL
APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF PRIMARY EMBEDDED LINE SEGMENTS WITH AN
ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN MODEST
INSTABILITY S OF THE ONGOING STORMS AND LARGELY LINE-PARALLEL
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG...ANY MORE DISCRETE STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO FORM S
OF THE BAND MAY POSE A MARGINAL TORNADO RISK.

..THOMPSON/CORFIDI.. 12/16/2012


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...

[srainhoutx]

Looking ahead to mid week, the 12Z Op GFS suggest a 1052mb Arctic High developing across Canada as heights build in Alaska suggesting a very strong blocking signal and a bit of a cross Polar flow. The model will likely not handle these features well as a potent Winter Storm ejects from the 4 Corners Region and taps into the very chilly air across Western Canada. Stiff N/NW winds behind that Winter Storm should be enough to dislodge a piece of the very cold air over the Yukon Territories bringing it S into the Plains near Christmas.

HPC:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1059 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2012

VALID 12Z WED DEC 19 2012 - 12Z SUN DEC 23 2012

...A STORMY WINTER PATTERN FOR THE MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST...

THE 15-12Z AND 16-00Z GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN IN VERY
GOOD LONGWAVE MEDIUM RANGE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5-6 ACROSS THE
CONUS. AN ENERGETIC PACIFIC SYSTEM EJECTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND DEEPENS AS IT MIGRATES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM (WHAT AMOUNTS TO A BROAD OCCLUSION ON THE SURFACE
GRAPHICS BY DAY 6) OPENS THE DOOR FOR AN APPRECIABLY COLD AND
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AND HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE TO SURGE
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE GULF COAST AND
FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM SETTLES IN CENTRAL QUEBEC BY DAY 6...WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL WAVES (POSSIBLY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM) TO REINFORCE AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CARVE OUT THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
YIELD A GENERALLY COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE EAST OF 95W...INCLUDING
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MS VALLEY...THE GREAT
LAKES...NORTHEAST...THE OHIO VALLEY...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC STATES.

THE DAY 6-7 FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION AND A STAGNANT...SLOW-MOVING TROUGH ALONG
THE WEST COAST. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
CONTINENT. THE ECMWF/GEFS MEANS AND THEIR DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE
PERHAPS A BIT QUICK IN ALLOWING THE BULK OF THIS PACIFIC TROUGH TO
MIGRATE INLAND GIVEN THE CUTOFF NATURE OF THE SURFACE WAVE AND THE
BLOCKY PATTERN DEVELOPING IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

BOTH MEANS ESSENTIALLY KEEP THE CYCLONIC FLOW MAINLY OVER OPEN
WATER AND MAINTAIN A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS WOULD GENERALLY KEEP THE SURFACE WAVE MIGRATING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THEN ATTEMPTING TO COME
ASHORE BENEATH THE SOUTHERN STREAM IN A SPLIT-FLOW SCENARIO.

VOJTESAK

12162012 12Z GFS 12zgfs850mbTSLPNA168.gif

[jasons2k]

.45" here. That's 37.09" for the year. Better than nothing but I sure would like to get on the main action next time.

[Rip76]

It's been raining here in 77089 for about 2 hours straight.

[txflagwaver]

Raining for hours here and we have not even gotten the heavy stuff yet...would not be surprised to see watch extended

[srainhoutx]

HGX has issued an areal flood advisory for Brazoria, Ft Bend, Galveston & Harris Counties

[Portastorm]

I hope y'all in SE Texas are enjoying and appreciating your rain. We received a whopping .13 inches of rain here in the Austin area. I'm thinking this coming summer's big sport will be driving across Lake Travis. It'll probably be shallow enough by then.

[Rip76]

HGX has issued an areal flood advisory for Brazoria, Ft Bend, Galveston & Harris Counties

Other than Gal. County, HGX seems a touch late on that one.

[srainhoutx]

Looking ahead towards Christmas, the 12Z Euro suggests another rather potent storm system crossing the Great Basin/Southern Rockies providing high elevation snow across New Mexico/Colorado and possibly the Panhandle and yet again another severe potential in the warm sector. We will see.

12162012 12Z Euro 12zeuro500mbHeightAnomalyNA216.gif

12162012 12Z Euro 12zeuro850mbWinds216.gif

12162012 12Z Euro 12zeurohourly850mbTempAnomalyNA216.gif

12162012 12Z Euro 12zeurohourly850mbTempAnomalyNA240.gif

[Belmer]

Here in Pasadena, recieved two inches of rain exactly. Sure is nice to see my rain gauge that full. I believe this is just the beginning in the rain department as we are already looking forward to our next rain system on Thursday. Hope the ones who didn't see the rain they were hoping for today, I hope the best of luck for Thursday as our next strong front comes in.

Eric Berger in the Houston Chronicle is keeping me belief in a cold Christmas as his highs for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day are in the low to mid 40s and his lows are in the upper 20s low 30s.
David Paul believes that as well.

This is already looking like a more promising winter than last winter. I mean, it technically isn't even winter yet, and some are already disappointed. At least wait till the season gets here before you feel like we have no hope.

[srainhoutx]

Snow falling in Taos NM. Good to see the Southern Rockies as far S as New Mexico adding up the snow pack after a multi year drought...

Edit to add also snow @ Ski Apache in Ruidoso...

http://www.skiapache.com/the-mountain/the-mountain-cam/

[jasons2k]

This is already looking like a more promising winter than last winter. I mean, it technically isn't even winter yet, and some are already disappointed. At least wait till the season gets here before you feel like we have no hope.

I just want to point out -- the meteorological winter consists of December, January, and February. The astronomical winter, based on the solstice that occurs December 21st, isn't really reflective of weather patterns. By that time, typically, winter has already started in earnest in the northern hemisphere.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter

[Katdaddy]

Picked up around 2.45" today (per Harris County Bay Area and Clear Creek rain guage 1.35 miles away) of well needed rainfall. Weather station sensor for the rain gauge has died or bird poop......it officially says 0.08" for the day. Big travel day Friday and the weather looks to be on everyone's side at this point. We will be N of Ft Worth for Christmas week.