December-Wet/Stormy New Years Eve Ahead

[mckinne63]

It it's going to be cloudy, muggy and gloomy, could we at least get some rain?

[srainhoutx]

HPC Morning Update for next week as we enter the busy Holiday travel period...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1050 AM EST SAT DEC 15 2012

VALID 12Z TUE DEC 18 2012 - 12Z SAT DEC 22 2012

...A VERY ACTIVE MID-DECEMBER WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...

SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES AND WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
GRADUALLY SHIFTS FOCUS NEXT WEEK FROM THE WEST...GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS...MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE ADJUSTMENT NEEDED EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WITH THE 15/00Z ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES IN VERY
GOOD LONGWAVE AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES EJECTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OUT THE CENTRAL ROCKIES NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN TRACKS THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST. SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONTINENTAL US BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE SOUTH AND
A COASTAL STORM FOR THE NORTHEAST. A BUILDING SURFACE AND
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE KEY BEING...A QUASI-STATIONARY
RIDGE...IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NATION SPELLS A COLD AND
BLUSTERY TROUGH PATTERN EAST OF 90W LONGITUDE FROM THE CANADIAN
BORDER TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND EASTERN SEABOARD FOR DAY
6-7.

IN THE WEST...A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE LOCKS
INTO PLACE BEHIND THE TUESDAY PACIFIC FRONT...AND BY FRIDAY...THIS
RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY WESTWARD TO THE COASTLINE. THE RESULTANT
STAGNATION OF THE FLOW PATTERN IN THE WEST IS HANDLED REASONABLY
WELL BY THE GEFS/ECMWF MEANS...ALLOWING FOR A CUTOFF LOW TO
MEANDER OFFSHORE INVOF 130W-135W LONGITUDE WITH NO APPRECIABLY TAP
OF MOISTURE/DYNAMICS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF/GFS ARE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT IN HANDLING THE WEAK SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF...BUT BOTH ESSENTIALLY KEEP THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OPEN WATER AND MAINTAIN A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT.

VOJTESAK

[JackCruz]

Wow..so we go from the possibility of a HUGE artic outbreak with moisture to now 70s on Christmas? We might as well just get some 90s and just call it the end of winter. Been hearing about thos pattern change since November..we're currently at 80 degrees. I'm so depressed right now.

[harpman]

Yeah, Jack, I agree. Who thought we'd have back to back mild winters!! Only hope is to start looking forward to January.

[biggerbyte]

We will be in this sort of rollercoaster pattern for the foreseeable future. Just going to have to wait to see if January will actually lock in winter like weather. . We have moved from a stagnant pattern to a more progressive one, meaning better chances for rain, and now these cold snaps. That also means that we will get warmer periods in between.

[srainhoutx]

Just picked up a quick 1/4 inch of rain in NW Harris County with a passing shower. The HPC is a bit more bullish on our rainfall chances than some of the guidance suggests. We will see.

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
141 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2012


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 16/0000 UTC THRU DEC 17/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1...

SOUTHERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST...

SRN PORTION OF COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TX/LA SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRES LIFTS NWD THRU THE UPR MS
VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES ARE FCST TO
POOL ALONG THE BNDRY OVERNIGHT AND SUN AS UPSTREAM 300 MB JET
ENCROACHES FROM THE SRN PLAINS. THIS JET OF 130-150 KT PRODUCES
DIVERGENCE MAXIMA WHICH COMBINE WITH 850-700 MB CONVERGENCE TO
PRODUCE AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE MODELS HAVE
MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AND QPF DIFFERENCES. THE 12 KM NAM
CONTINUES TO LOOK UNDERDONE...GIVEN THE HIGH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...AS BOTH PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES AND 850-700 MB
MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES ARE 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL.

[srainhoutx]

Another rather sharp cold snap appears in the works late Wednesday into Thursday as a potent Winter Storm ejects out of the 4 Corners Region and heads NE into the Western Great Lakes dropping down another strong Canadian front.

[wxman57]

Wow..so we go from the possibility of a HUGE arctic outbreak with moisture to now 70s on Christmas? We might as well just get some 90s and just call it the end of winter. Been hearing about this pattern change since November..we're currently at 80 degrees. I'm so depressed right now.

Now you're finally coming around to my line of thinking! Unfortunately, the 18Z GFS is back to indicating a large mass of cold air moving out of Canada around Christmas and reaching us the 26th. I doubt it's handling the pattern well, as it warms the cold airmass too quickly if it DOES move south.

[C2G]

Thank you wxman57 for this most recent warm and muggy weather, absolutely love it. This last cold snap played a number on my sinuses and throat, for which I'm still recovering.
Thanks again.

[wxman666]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 682
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 682 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC005-015-021-039-041-051-071-073-089-123-149-157-167-177-185-
199-201-225-239-241-245-285-287-289-291-313-321-331-339-347-351-
361-373-395-403-405-407-419-455-457-471-473-477-481-161900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0682.121216T1150Z-121216T1900Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANGELINA AUSTIN BASTROP
BRAZORIA BRAZOS BURLESON
CHAMBERS CHEROKEE COLORADO
DEWITT FAYETTE FORT BEND
GALVESTON GONZALES GRIMES
HARDIN HARRIS HOUSTON
JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON
LAVACA LEE LEON
LIBERTY MADISON MATAGORDA
MILAM MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES
NEWTON ORANGE POLK
ROBERTSON SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
SAN JACINTO SHELBY TRINITY
TYLER WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON WHARTON
$$

[wxman666]

Looks like a potentially active morning across SE TX this morning and early afternoon. Hope everyone stays safe. When thunder roars, go indoors.

[srainhoutx]

Watch covers portions of Central/SE/E Texas and Louisiana. Potent short wave moving along that Pacific frontal boundary is the trigger. Where training develops, 1-2 inches of rainfall are possible. As a 'teaser' for Wednesday into Thursday, the SPC is already making mention of another Severe Outbreak potential with the sharp Canadian front mainly for parts of E/NE TX/Louisiana and on E. The progressive pattern rolls along....

[jasons2k]

So far, I've managed the thread the needle again and sit right between the line that formed to the south of me, and the main line moving-in from the north and west. And there's a split in that line to my north/west...headed right towards me...again....

At least it's raining here now, even if it is light. Closely watching & hoping a cell can move this way and give me a real downpour. I think it's been since August or something crazy since I've had anything more than 1/4"

Edited: Geez, just as I typed this the line to the north basically evaporated and the line to the south completely filled-in and turned solid red. It is now dominant as it cutoff off the inflow up here. Ugh, I feel like I'm in a cartoon.."foiled again!"

[JackCruz]

See, Larry is now hinting at the cancellation of winter. This gets more ridiculous day by day. Bring on the 90s and 100 degree weather!

[biggerbyte]

I've said this before. If you frequent the comments of some forecasters, it will drive you insane. They change their mind as the models flip and flop, sometimes daily. If you are going to forecast using such means, the idea is to look for trends/ consistencies. That, or go find yourself a real old fashioned weatherman. Doc comes to mind.

[wxman666]

Had a heck of a storm here in Cypress. Watching the stuff up north filling in with yellow. Anyone think it may develop?

[jasons2k]

Wow - US 59 corridor is getting nailed now, esp NE of downtown towards Kingwood/Humble. Enjoy it - you guys stole my thunder - literally

[srainhoutx]

Folks in Liberty County...heads up. Bow echo moving out of Montgomery County. Remember yesterday we mentioned that guidance is doing a poor job handling the short waves and strength of the troughs and upper air pattern. We certainly saw a change around the 10th and are expecting another freeze potential following the sharp Canadian front Wednesday night. Don't let the mega ego hypsters fool ya. The pattern has indeed changed...

[SusieinLP]

This will make it to the coast later?

[mckinne63]

Not a drop here in Stafford. Very cloudy and gloomy, but thus far no rain. Looking at the radar all the rain is just above us. Enjoy for those of you getting a soaking.