December-Wet/Stormy New Years Eve Ahead

[srainhoutx]

E-mail from Jeff:

Freezing warning will be issued this afternoon for all areas except inside the 610 loop and the immediate coastal areas.

Long awaited and well advertised cold blast arrive overnight with current temperatures running some 20-30 degrees colder than this time on Sunday.

Strong Canadian cold front continues to plow across the Gulf of Mexico as large polar high builds down into central TX. Strong cold air advection continue early this afternoon under slowly clearing skies from the NW. Even under sunny skies temps. remain in the 40’s with gusty NNW winds of 15-25mph. Large surface high will expand into SE TX this evening with winds weakening, but not likely going calm. Air mass is already very dry with dewpoints in the 20s and once the sun sets, temperatures will begin to fall toward those dewpoints. Weak overnight winds will keep temperatures from bottoming out near the bone dry dewpoints and save most of the region from a hard freeze.

Lows Tuesday/Wednesday AM:

27-29: north of HWY 105

29-32: all other areas

33-35: inside 610 loop and beaches

Temperatures will be at or below freezing for between 3-7 hours. Sensitive tropical vegetation will be impacted and should be protected.

Warming only into the low to mid 50’s on Tuesday with polar high moving nearly overhead by late afternoon. Winds will be weaker (near clam) Tuesday night/Wednesday morning and equally cold temperatures are likely again. Would go a little lower on the Wednesday morning lows, but the surface ridge axis may shift just enough eastward to allow a very weak E wind toward morning which could halt the temperature fall.

Warm up begins on Thursday as the polar high moves eastward and SE winds return to the area. Gulf moisture will begin to deepen as low pr3essure develops over the southern plains supporting southerly flow. Models have been waffling back and forth with rain chances for the Friday-Saturday period. What looked to be a decent chance of rain yesterday is much more questionable today and given the drought conditions in place…will side with the drier side of things for now. Temperatures will rebound back toward the 70’s for highs and 50’s for lows by Saturday ahead of a weak front late Saturday which will return the area to normal.

[wxman57]

Euro is still forecasting a return of at least a high overcast by 9pm this evening and continuing through midnight tomorrow. It's hard to get to freezing with a broken to overcast cirrus deck.

[srainhoutx]

Euro is still forecasting a return of at least a high overcast by 9pm this evening and continuing through midnight tomorrow. It's hard to get to freezing with a broken to overcast cirrus deck.

Not going to happen. Crystal clear skies and not a hint of high cloudiness except maybe in the Valley. Sadly my long growing (since the last freeze in 2010/11) English ivy will be toast.

[srainhoutx]

Euro is still forecasting a return of at least a high overcast by 9pm this evening and continuing through midnight tomorrow. It's hard to get to freezing with a broken to overcast cirrus deck.

Not going to happen. Crystal clear skies and not a hint of high cloudiness except maybe in the Valley. Sadly my long growing (since the last freeze in 2010/11) English ivy will be toast.

That is why I tell people to be happy for what they wish for. Not that wishing actually causes it.


Could you try the Florida citrus method of running the sprinklers all night, even if ice forms, it acts as an insulator.

Not going to wrap my two mystery citrus with thorns. They live or die on their own. My fan palms may have a little leaf burn, but they have always pulled through.

No worries. I started them from two 4 inch runners two years ago. They'll grow back in time. I have to give wxman57 a hard time since he probably is hugging the euro to be right so he doesn't loose that office pool for the first freeze date @ IAH...

IMG_20121210_170830_226.jpg

Oh and from Srain's house to all the KHOU Weather Forum Family...Happy Holidays...

[wxman57]

Satellite loop shows high clouds streaming quickly NE out of Mexico into south Texas and toward Houston. Should be overhead in a few hours, as per the Euro forecast. I had noticed a good bit of high clouds overhead already by sunset.

Update: IAH reporting a broken cirrus deck as of 8pm.

[Andrew]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/sc/flash-vis.html

[Belmer]

Euro was right all along. Clouds have moved in. Probably bump the low temps up a degree or two maybe from what was predicted.

[srainhoutx]

Just dropped to 32 degrees at my location in NW Harris County. That makes the coldest night I've seen this Fall/Winter Season so far.

[biggerbyte]

Folks, low to mid 30s tonight, especially north of the beltway. Pets and plants. You may need to add pipes to that for Tuesday night as we flirt with the possibility of mid to upper 20s about the area.

Love the house, Srain.

Merry Christmas, everybody.

[unome]

temp is right at freezing here, of course that's when the dog wakes me up to go outside...

http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman ... &lat=&lon=

http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman ... 3&refrsh=0

[Belmer]

It's not 6:00am yet, so temperature can still drop a little, but only 29 here in San Marcos. Low was predicted to be anywhere from 23-26 degrees.
Studying for my final exams this week and I've loved being out in this weather at 3-6 in the morning. Really wakes you up after studying for hours.

As for Christmas outlook, things are still iffy.

[unome]

clouds are clearing in our area, it will drop further

loop here: http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satelli ... g&itype=ir

[Portastorm]

Sitting at 27 degrees here at 6 am in southwest Travis County. Quite chilly!

[srainhoutx]

28 degrees @ DW Hooks matches my temp this morning making for the coldest air of the season I've seen so far. Gradual warmup should begin with one more very chilly night tonight and increasing clouds as our wind flow turns E ahead of the next trough/upper air disturbance and Pacific front on Saturday.

The next in a series of strong upper air (500mb) low/trough enters the picture on Sunday to our W over Arizona/New Mexico. The GFS is quicker and drier with this feature passing over Kansas while the Euro and its ensembles suggest a much further S track and 'hint' at a closed cold core upper low meandering E across the Southern Plains. A strong blocking pattern over the Hudson Bay Region of Canada tends to favor a more southern/slower track suggesting a potent Winter Storm yet again crossing New Mexico/Texas/Oklahoma. Confidence is very low in the medium range forecast so expect changes in this progressive pattern.

[srainhoutx]

A light frost this morning while walking the dogs on car tops and roof tops. A bit more detailed look at the 00Z Euro and its ensembles and the HPC/SPC morning update...

HPC:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 AM EST TUE DEC 11 2012

VALID 12Z SAT DEC 15 2012 - 12Z TUE DEC 18 2012

THE MEDIUM RANGE PLAYERS APPEAR TO BE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC
RIDGING COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING RIDGING OVER HUDSON BAY... WHICH
OFFER POSITIVE FEEDBACK BETWEEN EACH OTHER. THESE CENTERS
TELECONNECT TO TROUGHING THROUGH THE WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH INTERMITTENT WEAKER RIDGING/TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
SPEED/AMPLITUDE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
OVER THE NEXT WEEK BUT HAVE MANAGED TO MAINTAIN BROAD CONTINUITY
WITH THE LATEST 00Z RUNS. THE GFS/GEFS MEAN ARE STILL A BIT
QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF/12Z ECWMF ENSEMBLE MEAN... AS CAN BE
TYPICAL. WHILE THE TREND FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN
QUICKER RATHER THAN SLOWER... THE INCREASED BLOCKING OVER HUDSON
BAY MAY ACT TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN... RELIED ON THE
ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN GIVEN ITS BETTER FIT TO CONTINUITY
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. BY NEXT WEEK... SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
SHOULD EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... BUT THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES BY SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES. MEAN CENTROID POSITION BY TUE/D7 OF THIS POTENTIAL
SYSTEM IS AROUND THE 12Z/10 ECMWF RATHER THAN THE VERY SOUTHERLY
00Z/11 ECMWF. A MODEST WEIGHTING OF THE 12Z/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
WAS USED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS A GOOD BALANCE BETWEEN THE TWO
MOST RECENT ECMWF RUNS.


FRACASSO


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST TUE DEC 11 2012

VALID 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH MODEST SPREAD PERSISTS AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS COMING FRIDAY/SATURDAY IS FAIRLY HIGH. HOWEVER...AT
LEAST IN PART DUE TO SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE ONLY BEING IN THE
PROCESS OF RETURNING AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES... JUXTAPOSITION OF THE
MORE FAVORABLE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND WARM SECTOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION REMAINS FAR FROM CERTAIN. EVEN
SO...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION...PARTICULARLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
NORTHERN TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE FRIDAY...THROUGH
ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/NORTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY LATE SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WAVE
MAY BE TO HELP ESTABLISH SUFFICIENT MOISTENING...ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND GULF COAST REGION...TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WITH THE NEXT
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...WHICH MAY SUPPORT STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE
SPREAD AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA...THOUGH...IS
STILL MUCH TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY ASCERTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
REGION SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND GRAPHICALLY DELINEATE AN AREA.

..KERR.. 12/11/2012

12112012 00Z Euro 00zeuro500mbHeightAnomalyNA144.gif

12112012 00Z Euro 00zeuro500mbHeightAnomalyNA168.gif

12112012 00Z ECMWFENs 00zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA168.gif

12112012 00Z GEFS Euro ENS test8.gif

[Belmer]

Got down to 26 here in San Marcos. I forgot how much I loved the cold. Too bad the warm up is on the way. I'm starting to get use to this.

[biggerbyte]

So, Srain, are you of the opinion, like some on other forums, that this could be a good year for snow chances for a larger part of Texas?

[biggerbyte]

Wow! I seem to be having some strange problems with the forum, Srain. Can you help me?

[srainhoutx]

Wow! I seem to be having some strange problems with the forum, Srain. Can you help me?

Doug Delony, KHOU11 Web & Social Media Producer has been working very hard the past couple of weeks and we have completed a major platform upgrade. There are some changes and more are likely to come as we continue to make improvements in the platform. Take a little time and look over the new features and were they are located and everything should become easier. We had to make these changes due to the platform being extremely out of date and now the board has been fully backed up on a separate operating system and a 'test board' created so we can continue to test and make improvements and add features. Hopefully this will help. Our little weather community has grown so much and become so active and monitored well beyond the 'local' area, these changes needed to happen as we have become a more regional weather board. This was the plan that Dan and I envisioned back in February 2010 when we received this new platform. Dan had dreamed of a more regional board that spread beyond SE TX and we have been moving in that direction for some time. We are on a dedicated server with increased load capacity. A special thanks to the good folks at KHOU for understanding our needs and desires as a community and helping with all the technical and most of all the money. The dedicated server expense per month is not cheap. A lot has been going on 'behind the scenes' over the past 6-7 months to make our board a First Class Weather Forum Community.

[wxman57]

IAH is our freeze contest location. Only 33F on the hourlies, but could have dipped lower between hours. My date is the 17th.

OK, this is enough for the winter of 2012-2013. I'm ready for summer now!