Tropical Depression Isaac:

[Bluefalcon]

Late night at the firehouse...Recon is showing Isaac making a jog to the west with the last 3 recon fixes.

[Bluefalcon]

Now somebody is really playing tricks.

Through 48 hrs the Euro has reversed and now is moving due W along the La coast. S of Abbeville.

Hey Scott, can you post a link...I'm up anyway.

[Scott747]

Now somebody is really playing tricks.

Through 48 hrs the Euro has reversed and now is moving due W along the La coast. S of Abbeville.

Hey Scott, can you post a link...I'm up anyway.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... l&hour=048

[Bluefalcon]

Check this link out: http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weathe ... opical.php

[Scott747]

Check this link out: http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weathe ... opical.php

When you compare it to the 12z run it's literally a full reversal from E to W.

[Bluefalcon]

Recon just punched the center on the 3rd pass...978mb...Center moved due west of the last fix by 20 miles in just over an 1.5 hours.

[biggerbyte]

I knew it. There are going to be some shocked folks checking in on Tuesday.

[Bluefalcon]

Check this link out: http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weathe ... opical.php

When you compare it to the 12z run it's literally a full reversal from E to W.

I was ready to call it...The NHC...hell, everybody, was leaning heavy on the ECMWF big time. And now in the 11th hour, it flips west. Not to be to hasty...recon is showing a westward jog of the center.

[biggerbyte]

This can only mean one thing. The trough is losing its influence, and the ridge is filling back in and taking over. I'll need someone to confirm this on Tuesday. I'm still operating off my phone. Guess I'm going to have to buy battery operated fans after all. Flipping tinittus.

[Bluefalcon]

Met's on Twitter just saw the Euro run...starting to light it up. I looked on the long range out of NOLA...you can see a very clear W to WNW movement.

[Andrew]

These models....

[Scott747]

Making a few quick scans to make sure it isn't decoupling again.....

[Bluefalcon]

Recon is banging 65knt winds 105 miles north of the center. About to start it's 4th pass into the center.

[Bluefalcon]

These models....

Like a cup of coffee at 1:30 in the morning...Glad that kid on 6th st couldn't handle his "high" or I'd be sawing logs...

[Scott747]

So far I can't find any obs to indicate it's decoupling.

If this next pass shows a rise in pressure then there might be some issues.

[Andrew]

So far I can't find any obs to indicate it's decoupling.

If this next pass shows a rise in pressure then there might be some issues.

Recon has been showing a steady pressure right now.

[Bluefalcon]

What would the "ballpark" wind speed be for a 978mb storm?

[Andrew]

What would the "ballpark" wind speed be for a 978mb storm?

Prob around 80-90 knots with a regular storm but with such a large storm more around the 70-80 knot range.

[Scott747]

So far I can't find any obs to indicate it's decoupling.

If this next pass shows a rise in pressure then there might be some issues.

Recon has been showing a steady pressure right now.

Well that was the idea about seeing what the next fix showed.

Only have had the one fix since this latest movement.

[Bluefalcon]

So far I can't find any obs to indicate it's decoupling.

If this next pass shows a rise in pressure then there might be some issues.

Recon has been showing a steady pressure right now.

Well that was the idea about seeing what the next fix showed.

Only have had the one fix since this latest movement.

Recon just turned East towards the center...