Tropical Depression Isaac:

Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis
rnmm
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Tropical Depression Isaac:

Post by rnmm » Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:23 pm

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208170358
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2012, DB, O, 2012081700, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942012
AL, 94, 2012081606, , BEST, 0, 106N, 120W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2012081612, , BEST, 0, 107N, 136W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2012081618, , BEST, 0, 109N, 155W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2012081700, , BEST, 0, 110N, 172W, 20, 1010, DB, 34
Last edited by srainhoutx on Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:34 pm, edited 27 times in total.
Reason: Edit Title
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rnmm
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Re: 94L off the Coast of Africa

Post by rnmm » Sat Aug 18, 2012 12:01 am

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE AZORES...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HELENE
LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM HELENE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN
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srainhoutx
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Re: 94L off the Coast of Africa

Post by srainhoutx » Sat Aug 18, 2012 7:38 am

06Z Tracks & Intensity:
Attachments
08182012 06Z Tracks 94 aal94_2012081806_track_early.png
08182012 06Z Intensity 94 aal94_2012081806_intensity_early.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: 94L off the Coast of Africa

Post by TexasBreeze » Sat Aug 18, 2012 2:01 pm

Overall models for this one keep shifting westward and for reasons Jeff Linder mentioned it will need to be watched. We'll have to see what the east coast trough does.

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Re: 94L off the Coast of Africa

Post by srainhoutx » Sat Aug 18, 2012 2:50 pm

94L is looking a bit more organized via microwave imagery. Also the HWRF and GFDL will be running with the 18Z output and tentative RECON has been tasked as it gets closer to the Caribbean Islands.
Attachments
08182012_1940_f17_x_composite_94LINVEST_25kts-1008mb-133N-320W_98pc.jpg
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: 94L off the Coast of Africa

Post by djjordan » Sat Aug 18, 2012 3:03 pm

I'm thinking this one may very well be the first major Hurricane in the Atlantic Basin this season.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~

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Re: 94L off the Coast of Africa

Post by srainhoutx » Sat Aug 18, 2012 5:53 pm

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 550 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: 94L off the Coast of Africa

Post by srainhoutx » Sat Aug 18, 2012 6:21 pm

For what it's worth, the 18Z GFDL is not impressed with developing 94L while the HWRF suggests a moderate Tropical Storm moving through the Antilles.
Attachments
08182012 18Z HWRF 94L panel_c_20.png
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Re: 94L off the Coast of Africa

Post by srainhoutx » Sun Aug 19, 2012 3:37 am

06Z Tracks & Intensity:
Attachments
08192012 06Z Track 94 aal94_2012081906_track_early.png
08192012 06Z Intensity 94 aal94_2012081906_intensity_early.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: 94L off the Coast of Africa

Post by srainhoutx » Sun Aug 19, 2012 7:43 am

12Z Tracks & Intensity:
Attachments
08192012 12Z Tracks 94L aal94_2012081912_track_early.png
08192012 12Z Intensity 94L aal94_2012081912_intensity_early.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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