Tropical Depression Isaac:

[Rip76]

It's 14 mph not 22

edited on last page.
I thought that was crusing a little fast.

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 15:01Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 25
Observation Number: 21
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 14:37:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°01'N 85°22'W (26.0167N 85.3667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 222 miles (357 km) between the WSW and W (259°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,334m (4,377ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 78 nautical miles (90 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 123° at 47kts (From the ESE at ~ 54.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 987mb (29.15 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:

[unome]

recent tweet from @NHC_Surge - Experimental Twitter account for the Storm Surge Unit at the National Hurricane Center

https://twitter.com/NHC_Surge

" #Isaac poses a SIGNIFICANT storm #surge threat to the northern Gulf Coast; heed all orders from your local EMs "

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 27 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z AUGUST 2012
         TCPOD NUMBER.....12-100

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 
    1. TROPICAL STORM ISAAC      
       FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 76--        FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 42--
       A. 28/2100,29/0000,0300Z      A. 29/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 3209A ISAAC          B. NOAA2 3309A ISAAC  
       C. 28/1930Z                   C. 28/2000Z
       D. 29.0N 89.3W                D. 29.3N 89.6W
       E. 28/2030Z TO 29/0300Z       E. 28/2200Z TO 29/0200Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT           F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT FOUR --TEAL 77--
       A. 29/0600,0900,1200Z                   
       B. AFXXX 3409A ISAAC          
       C. 29/0430Z                   
       D. 29.1N 89.4W                
       E. 29/0530Z TO 29/1200Z       
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT           

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

[Rip76]

I have to back away...

WNW now?

[unome]

11 AM Audio Podcast from NHC, Rick Knabb http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/audio/archive/201208271505.mp3

archive of all podcasts (includes some in Spanish) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/audio/archive/

[srainhoutx]

Just an FYI: HH AF Aircraft C-130 just departed from Ellington enroute to Isaac.

[rselby0654]

I'm sorry but are they smoking something at the NHC?! Isaac is clearly not moving NW but WNW. There is something that looks like an eye on satellite imagery. I'm very curious what the hurricane aircraft will find. I'm still not convinced that Isaac won't strengthen to a major hurricane before this is all said and done.

[Rip76]

Just an FYI: HH AF Aircraft C-130 just departed from Ellington enroute to Isaac.

I wonder why out of Ellington.
I must have just missed it.

[srainhoutx]

Just an FYI: HH AF Aircraft C-130 just departed from Ellington enroute to Isaac.

I wonder why out of Ellington.
I must have just missed it.

Biloxi is in the area that is threatened...

[Rip76]

I guess you are correct there...
haha...

[TXStormjg]

Remember the famous technical term used in past storms, "WEEBLE WOBBLE"? Well, Isaac is doing just that. After going nearly blind staring at images, I saw Isaac making that NW turn, but now, I see the WNW move taking place once more. This storm could wind up in Brownsville for all we know. The "WW" movement is very typical for storms, and therefore I stick by my thought of a TX / LA border hit.

[srainhoutx]

Not at lot of change via the 12Z GFS. It may be a tad E of landfall but still very near Houma, but that operational model does suggest a W to WNW drift very near the of Central Louisiana Coast through hour 57.

[srainhoutx]

The GFS does eventually suggest the remnants of Isaac will lift NW away from Coastal Louisiana and head toward the ArkLaTex Region.

[wxman57]

Finally, the GFS is coming to its senses...

[Snowman]

Remember the famous technical term used in past storms, "WEEBLE WOBBLE"? Well, Isaac is doing just that. After going nearly blind staring at images, I saw Isaac making that NW turn, but now, I see the WNW move taking place once more. This storm could wind up in Brownsville for all we know. The "WW" movement is very typical for storms, and therefore I stick by my thought of a TX / LA border hit.

Regardless of a weeble here or a wobble there this storm is heading for southeast Louisiana. Everyone here is getting ready. Although it doesn't seem as if it will be a very strong storm

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Finally, the GFS is coming to its senses...

Please explain. Looks to me it's headed to Centrl LA to AkLaTex

[djmike]

I think already this morning we're seeing a final landfall just to the west of NOLA. With the models that shifted east and the NHC pretty close to the cluster, I have a feeling we wont see any more deviations in the track westward. NHC track isn't even considering the "coastal rider" scenario with thier track. They still show it shooting off to the NE after landfall EVEN after they mentioned the ridge seems to be getting stronger....NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST...JUST MY PERSONAL OPINION!

[rselby0654]

No weeble wobble about it. Isaac is moving WNW and has NOT made the turn. Such a waiting game! Don't forget to have supplies at hand just in case. I don't see any indication that we are out of the woods.

[JackCruz]

Just watched channel 13's weather report. Travis said that Houston would be on the dry side of the storm.

Can Houston still be impacted in any way?