Tropical Depression Isaac:

[Portastorm]

Here are the 0z models:

[djmike]

90% chance for us here in Beaumont that Wunderground has. With winds gusting to 30mph! (ofcourse, this is as of this moment..)

[cristina99]

Somehow I knew the storm would make a westward turn. I read somewhere that one of the best Isaac models has it targeting the TX/LA coast near Sabine Pass.

[wxman666]

Question for Jeff: Do you think that *if* we have a scenario where this thing actually heads towards the TX coast we will still be looking at a Wed/Thu landfall or sometime later? Or is it still too early to tell?

Not sure what to make of it, but wunderground has an 80% chance of thunderstorms on Thursday for Houston. I don't recall any rain being in the forecast earlier in the day for this week.

I was just noticing that myself.

Wow! Thanks.

[Portastorm]

Sorry for the crappy image gang ... I don't post images often and clearly need a tutorial!

Here is a link to the latest models:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[Belmer]

Good to see so many people online this evening. Hope many of our guest become members.

For one, I am actually hoping Isaac goes into SW LA or into SE TX and continues on a NW movement toward the central plains. That would be wonderful news for them as they are still in a severe drought. Although it could be bad where Isaac hits, hopes are it won't be too strong.

[cperk]

Good to see so many people online this evening. Hope many of our guest become members.

For one, I am actually hoping Isaac goes into SW LA or into SE TX and continues on a NW movement toward the central plains. That would be wonderful news for them as they are still in a severe drought. Although it could be bad where Isaac hits, hopes are it won't be too strong.

Belmer have you been drinking.

[wxman666]

Tornado Warning - Miami-Dade.

[djjordan]

Good to see so many people online this evening. Hope many of our guest become members.

For one, I am actually hoping Isaac goes into SW LA or into SE TX and continues on a NW movement toward the central plains. That would be wonderful news for them as they are still in a severe drought. Although it could be bad where Isaac hits, hopes are it won't be too strong.

Exactly what I was thinking ....... The drought stricken regions sure could use this rain.

[Paul]

thanks Port....the GFS ensembles are looking slightly west as time goes by....dont know if they are done left or not....need a good ole 0Z GFS and EURO tonight...

[srainhoutx]

Our board just broke the record for the most online set back in Ferbruary 2011 when 197 were online. We now have 200+ and nearing half a million hits today alone. Our dedicated server is functioning seemlessly...

[wxman57]

90% chance for us here in Beaumont that Wunderground has. With winds gusting to 30mph! (ofcourse, this is as of this moment..)

No meteoroogist makes those forecasts. It's data from the latest GFS run.

[Scott747]

Here is a little more defined look at 0z guidance based on the 18z model runs. The NHC up until this year would generally go with something very near the TVCN consensus but starting using the TVCA. I'd guess that we might see another small adjustment W with a track a bit E of the Mississippi mouth and near the Louisiana/Mississippi border. Intensity guidance is about the same.

[biggerbyte]

Yes, everything is smooth as butter. The old board would have most likely up chucked.

[rnmm]

KHOU has pulled in the BIG DOG! Dr. Frank will be on tonight!!!

[biggerbyte]

KHOU has pulled in the BIG DOG! Dr. Frank will be on tonight!!!

The man... Cool

[cperk]

Our board just broke the record for the most online set back in Ferbruary 2011 when 197 were online. We now have 200+ and nearing half a million hits today alone. Our dedicated server is functioning seemlessly...

Congrats srainhoutx this is truly a community weather forum.

[radiation0512]

Good to see so many people online this evening. Hope many of our guest become members.

For one, I am actually hoping Isaac goes into SW LA or into SE TX and continues on a NW movement toward the central plains. That would be wonderful news for them as they are still in a severe drought. Although it could be bad where Isaac hits, hopes are it won't be too strong.

Belmer have you been drinking.

New member here!!! I've been lurking for years and finally decided to pull the trigger! I'd also like to know what Belmer is drinking?? LOL. I can tell you that the people in extreme SW LA are the last ones that want this storm. My grandparents have been wiped out twice by storm surge from Rita and again with Ike. They are just 25miles north from Holley Beach...Not Fun!! I do agree it would be nice for some of it to get some of the drought stricken regions though.

[Bluefalcon]

Recon Mission #24 is having a hard time finding the center of Isaac. Came in on his SW leg, thought he had it, did a 180 back to the NE, then did another 180 back to the West, and after going out about 90 miles is heading back to the East. Pressure is up to 004mb. Latest Vortex:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 01:50Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 24
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 1:13:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°10'N 82°34'W (24.1667N 82.5667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 56 miles (91 km) to the WSW (241°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,377m (4,518ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 69 nautical miles (79 statute miles) to the NE (40°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 122° at 47kts (From the ESE at ~ 54.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the NNE (32°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,516m (4,974ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph) in the northwest quadrant at 23:17:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb

[Bluefalcon]

And the radar out of Key West has Isaac looking like crap...shear and dry air?