Tropical Depression Isaac:

[Portastorm]

I said from the start that my gut was saying west of Florida rather than the recurve up the east coast (as per Bastardi). Question is, how far west? I was feeling good about the fairly good model agreement suggesting the western FL panhandle yesterday. The shift west to southeast LA/MS this morning wasn't unexpected, though, as I'd been telling our clients there that if we were to shift the track at all it would be westward toward MS.

Presently, the 12z GFS run is a complete outlier. It's disturbing, regardless, as it could impact the entire LA coast. Just saw the 12Z Canadian and it says southeast Mississippi. Unfortunately, the Canadian isn't a model I'd generally pay attention to. Will be interesting to see how the 12Z Euro handles the ridge over TX. The 12Z GFS takes Isaac westward right into its own ridge while it has a clear avenue of lower pressure to its north, which is strange.

I'm still not concerned about the Houston area. Even a direct hit to Lake Charles would mean just a bit of rain here.

I expect the NHC will adjust its track westward at 4pm. Probably to New Orleans or not far east of there.

The 12z GFS run shows 1-2 inches of rain for the HOU metro area.

[wxman666]

I said from the start that my gut was saying west of Florida rather than the recurve up the east coast (as per Bastardi). Question is, how far west? I was feeling good about the fairly good model agreement suggesting the western FL panhandle yesterday. The shift west to southeast LA/MS this morning wasn't unexpected, though, as I'd been telling our clients there that if we were to shift the track at all it would be westward toward MS.

Presently, the 12z GFS run is a complete outlier. It's disturbing, regardless, as it could impact the entire LA coast. Just saw the 12Z Canadian and it says southeast Mississippi. Unfortunately, the Canadian isn't a model I'd generally pay attention to. Will be interesting to see how the 12Z Euro handles the ridge over TX. The 12Z GFS takes Isaac westward right into its own ridge while it has a clear avenue of lower pressure to its north, which is strange.

I'm still not concerned about the Houston area. Even a direct hit to Lake Charles would mean just a bit of rain here.

I expect the NHC will adjust its track westward at 4pm. Probably to New Orleans or not far east of there.

The 12z GFS run shows 1-2 inches of rain for the HOU metro area.

That sounds quite a bit more significant than "dry and hot".

[skidog40]

also the clouds extend far west from storm. this storm looks to be massive

[cisa]

when do the next models run?

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS Ensemble members:

[kellybell4770]

what concerns me at this point is that when the predictions first started a few days ago it was Florida, Florida, Florida - the models have since shifted West - if they have shifted this far west thus far then who's to say that trend won't continue? I would just hate for the Houston area to be caught off guard

[wxman666]

what concerns me at this point is that when the predictions first started a few days ago it was Florida, Florida, Florida - the models have since shifted West - if they have shifted this far west thus far then who's to say that trend won't continue? I would just hate for the Houston area to be caught off guard

We usually are. Lol! I jest. I'm certainly not discounting that possibility yet.

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 17:51Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 21
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 17:09:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°50'N 81°17'W (23.8333N 81.2833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 59 miles (95 km) to the SSE (148°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,390m (4,560ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the ENE (74°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 147° at 51kts (From the SSE at ~ 58.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 44 nautical miles (51 statute miles) to the ENE (65°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 995mb (29.38 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,394m (4,573ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:41:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:41:20Z

[Andrew]

Euro looks like it will catch the trof.

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFDL:

[Andrew]

Euro 48:

[clc]

According to the latest coordinates, Isaac is now moving due west.

[wxman666]

According to the latest coordinates, Isaac is now moving due west.

I'm betting the euro flops back and joins the other models. Not sure why it's stubborn on that trough.

[cperk]

12Z GFDL:

Pretty much unchanged from the 6oz.

[Andrew]

72:

[kellybell4770]

Holy cow Isaac! make up your mind! LOL

[Andrew]

According to the latest coordinates, Isaac is now moving due west.

Still looks relatively NW according to Key west radar.

[Rip76]

Movement currently looks NW to me.

[srainhoutx]

The Euro suggests a potential landfall near Mobile. That model also suggests a weaker trough and continues to slowly move Isaac N as it dissipates over the Tennessee Valley Region.

[clc]

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 80.8W

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 81.5W


Per the NHC, due west.