Tropical Depression Isaac:

[Scott747]

Just to highlight why there was only a subtle change in the track to the W. With more G-IV data along with further data across the NW should hopefully help the models tonight with the 0z runs. For reference the 0z GFS will begin running at about 10:30 followed by the HWRF/GFDL at 11:30 and the Euro beginning around 1 am.

IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...ISAAC WILL BE NEARING
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AND SHOULD MOVE IN A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD HEADING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT LARGE
DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MODELS AFTER
THAT TIME. THE ECMWF RECURVES ISAAC AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WHILE THE GFS SLOWS ISAAC
DOWN AS THE TROUGH BYPASSES THE SYSTEM AND THE MODEL THEN TURNS
THE CYCLONE WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS BIFURCATION IS ALSO SEEN IN THE MOST RECENT
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES WITH ABOUT AN EQUAL NUMBER OF MEMBERS
SHOWING RECURVATURE VERSUS A CONTINUE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK TOWARD
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. SINCE THE UNCERTAINTY IS LARGE AND EITHER
OF THESE SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...THE NHC FORECAST IS
LIES BETWEEN THEM. THE UPDATED TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED WESTWARD...BUT IT REMAINS EAST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS TO RETAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

[ticka1]

Can someone please post the results of the 10:30 GFS and other late night models here? I admit - I am not good at finding them online - will someone be up to post it/therm here?

[Scott747]

Can someone please post the results of the 10:30 GFS and other late night models here? I admit - I am not good at finding them online - will someone be up to post it/therm here?

No problem. We should know by 11ish what the GFS is showing for landfall.

[djmike]

[quote="Scott747"]Just to highlight why there was only a subtle change in the track to the W. With more G-IV data along with further data across the NW should hopefully help the models tonight with the 0z runs. For reference the 0z GFS will begin running at about 10:30 followed by the HWRF/GFDL at 11:30 and the Euro beginning around 1 am.


Thanks for explaining.....I about fell out of my chair when I noticed the track moved only hair...or did it? Lol...my nose is touching the screen trying to pick out a land mark to see if the track moved....Still hard to tell.

[Scott747]

Just to highlight why there was only a subtle change in the track to the W. With more G-IV data along with further data across the NW should hopefully help the models tonight with the 0z runs. For reference the 0z GFS will begin running at about 10:30 followed by the HWRF/GFDL at 11:30 and the Euro beginning around 1 am.


Thanks for explaining.....I about fell out of my chair when I noticed the track moved only hair...or did it? Lol...my nose is touching the screen trying to pick out a land mark to see if the track moved....Still hard to tell.

Hear ya. I glanced at it and thought "they sure didn't move it very much" and knew it would be explained in the discussion. What we had was the shift with the 12z Euro run to the E and the shift W by the 12z and 18z GFS. Despite the Euro not having quite the season in terms of getting tracks and patterns down like it has in years past it still retains a high level of confidence and why it's prudent to wait and see what the 0z runs show.

[nuby3]

Can someone please post the results of the 10:30 GFS and other late night models here? I admit - I am not good at finding them online - will someone be up to post it/therm here?

ticka, the easiest way for me is this site.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller

click on model guidance, namer for north america, gfs or nam, the time of the run is at the top (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z), for surface layer parameters select 1000_500_thick, and select the forecast hours at the bottom, or loop, and there you have it. You can look at the gfs whenever you want. : )

[srainhoutx]

I think we can stop the 'who is safe and who is not' banter. Clearly as has been stated on this very forum by Gene, Jeff as well as others, there are a lot of uncertainties and those have been posted repeatedly. Let's get back to the storm at hand and leave the 'Monday Morning quarterbacking' for another time and place...

I'll repeat this again as well as a philosophy that Dan brought to our community that I personally have tried very hard to maintain....and it to was during potential tropical troubles...~sigh~...

wxdata Post subject: Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 9:38 pm


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wxdata Post subject: Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 9:38 pm


Site Admin



Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 4:04 pm
Posts: 1059
Location: Houston, TX Everyone, this board was created so weather info and ideas could be exchanged without a lot of drama. The moderators of this board fully recognize the wide range of personalities leading to a wide range of opinions. One opinion is no less correct or incorrect as the next. If you don't agree with a person's post, that's fine. I'm sure there are people on this board that disagree with some of my posts. That's OK. I get it, but when the discussion begins to reach into the mud, we must put the reign on things. Some may disagree that we the moderators don't step in sooner, but our philosophy is to enjoy the exchange of ideas. This is directed at no one in particular, but if you can't play nice in the sandbox, please take your toys and go elsewhere.



.

Now let's move on to Isaac and drops the personal issues. Thanks.

[ticka1]

Can someone please post the results of the 10:30 GFS and other late night models here? I admit - I am not good at finding them online - will someone be up to post it/therm here?

ticka, the easiest way for me is this site.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller

click on model guidance, namer for north america, gfs or nam, the time of the run is at the top (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z), for surface layer parameters select 1000_500_thick, and select the forecast hours at the bottom, or loop, and there you have it. You can look at the gfs whenever you want. : )

Thank you Nuby3 appreciate the link and information - I will give it a try! I am will to learn it just finding the right information where I can figure it out!

[biffb816]

Can someone please post the results of the 10:30 GFS and other late night models here? I admit - I am not good at finding them online - will someone be up to post it/therm here?

ticka, the easiest way for me is this site.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller

click on model guidance, namer for north america, gfs or nam, the time of the run is at the top (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z), for surface layer parameters select 1000_500_thick, and select the forecast hours at the bottom, or loop, and there you have it. You can look at the gfs whenever you want. : )

If you just want a quick place to find the tracks, I like http://spaghettimodels.com/

[biggerbyte]

I think we can stop the 'who is safe and who is not' banter. Clearly as has been stated on this very forum by Gene, Jeff as well as others, there are a lot of uncertainties and those have been posted repeatedly. Let's get back to the storm at hand and leave the 'Monday Morning quarterbacking' for another time and place...

I'll repeat this again as well as a philosophy that Dan brought to our community that I personally have tried very hard to maintain....and it to was during potential tropical troubles...~sigh~...

wxdata Post subject: Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 9:38 pm


Site Admin



Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 4:04 pm
Posts: 1059
Location: Houston, TX
wxdata Post subject: Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 9:38 pm


Site Admin



Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 4:04 pm
Posts: 1059
Location: Houston, TX Everyone, this board was created so weather info and ideas could be exchanged without a lot of drama. The moderators of this board fully recognize the wide range of personalities leading to a wide range of opinions. One opinion is no less correct or incorrect as the next. If you don't agree with a person's post, that's fine. I'm sure there are people on this board that disagree with some of my posts. That's OK. I get it, but when the discussion begins to reach into the mud, we must put the reign on things. Some may disagree that we the moderators don't step in sooner, but our philosophy is to enjoy the exchange of ideas. This is directed at no one in particular, but if you can't play nice in the sandbox, please take your toys and go elsewhere.



.

Now let's move on to Isaac and drops the personal issues. Thanks.

Oh man. That is wonderful. I remember his posting that. God bless him.

[Andrew]

GFS farther west

gfs_atlantic_057_500_vort_ht.gif

gfs_atlantic_072_500_vort_ht.gif

[biggerbyte]

With the models now in the last few days of runs, the fact that the GFS wants to shift west a bit concerns me. If the Euro does the same... Still does not mean they will not flip back the other direction before landfall, however.

[Scott747]

I'm using breakpoints here - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/breakpoints.shtml

0z GFS is roughly Morgan City to the Mouth Mississippi River

Moving WNW across the coast....

[Andrew]

I'm using breakpoints here - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/breakpoints.shtml

0z GFS is roughly Morgan City to the Mouth Mississippi River

Moving WNW across the coast....

Misses the trough. Will prob continue wnw until it gets picked up on the next one.

[ticka1]

I'm using breakpoints here - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/breakpoints.shtml

0z GFS is roughly Morgan City to the Mouth Mississippi River

Moving WNW across the coast....

Misses the trough. Will prob continue wnw until it gets picked up on the next one.

how far is that?

[sambucol]

[jasons2k]

I'd like to see what the Euro does, but the shift west is significant and reflected in the ensembles as well. This is eerily similar to a certain "K" storm when a significant shift from the FL Panhandle to NOLA was required.

I would not want to be in the NHC's shoes right now. On the right hand, you've got the Convention about to start in Tampa with all kinds of logistical considerations. On the left hand, you have NOLA and you don't want to scare them into action unless you really mean it. Wow.

[Scott747]

At hr 93 it's barely moving and E a bit from Cameron.

[sambucol]

[Scott747]

Hr 102 S of Lake Charles moving slowly WNW.