January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[Andrew]

Hmmm... the 12Z Euro sure looks interesting right under the upper low...

01242012 12Z Euro f48.gif

01242012 12Z Euro 12zeurohourly850mbTempAnomalyNA048.gif

SHould make for a very interesting passage if the Euro is to verify

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
112 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HAYS COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN TRAVIS COUNTY...

* UNTIL 200 PM CST.

* AT 102 PM CST...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR DRIPPING SPRINGS...AND MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BEE CAVE...LAKEWAY AND LAGO
VISTA.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro is similar to the 12Z GFS in its treatment of the upper low right up to about noon Thursday. Beyond then, the Euro weakens the low and accelerates the trof off to the east, while the GFS moves the closed upper low right across Houston Friday morning. What that would mean (GFS) is clouds continuing through about noon Friday and a good chance of light rain on Friday morning as the upper low passes. If the GFS is right, it would also mean cooler temps on Thu/Fri (highs in the 50s) due to continued cloudcover and the chance of rain.

[srainhoutx]

Liberty and Polk Counties, heads up. Some small hail may be in the storm heading N

[wxman57]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
112 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
...

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BEE CAVE...LAKEWAY AND LAGO
VISTA.

Strange name for a city. It's about 12 miles west-northwest of downtown Austin, 7-8 miles south of Lake Travis.

[ticka1]

Okay Srainhoutx - I am curious what is your take on the weather event aka rain - lots of it and severe weather?

[srainhoutx]

Okay Srainhoutx - I am curious what is your take on the weather event aka rain - lots of it and severe weather?

I suspect the system will not disappoint those wanting to see some much needed rainfall. I am concerned about the severe aspect with the dynamics involved with this U/L.

[Andrew]

Some of the Hail I received under a 2 foot ledge.

[srainhoutx]

Folks in Bryan/College Station heads up. That cell heading NNE out of Lee County looks suspect

[ticka1]

Hmmm... the 12Z Euro sure looks interesting right under the upper low...

01242012 12Z Euro f48.gif

01242012 12Z Euro 12zeurohourly850mbTempAnomalyNA048.gif

SHould make for a very interesting passage if the Euro is to verify

Can either of you explain what this model run is forecasting?

[Andrew]

Folks in Bryan/College Station heads up. That cell heading NNE out of Lee County looks suspect

[srainhoutx]

There could be enough cold air aloft for some small hail with the U/L, ticka1. We will see...

[srainhoutx]

Lake Somerville spotter measures 45mph gust

[srainhoutx]

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
129 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2012


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 25/0000 UTC THRU JAN 26/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1...

SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

THE CLOSING OFF UPR LOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. WL PUSH STEADILY ESEWD
DAY 1 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FROM FAR SWRN TX TOWARD THE BIG BEND.
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST GUIDANCE DAY 1 WITH THIS
EVOLUTION AND THE STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WL RAISE PW VALUES TO 2-3 STD ABOVE THE MEAN
ACRS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE...ALONG WITH VERY FAVORABLE UPR
DIFFLUENCE IN THE COUPLED JET ENTRANCE/EXIT REGION OVR THE SRN
PLAINS WL AND STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE ASSOC COLD
FRONT AND SFC WAVE WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD HVY
PCPN EVENT FROM CNTRL TO NERN TX...SERN OK...WRN AR AND WRN LA.
SIMILAR TO PAST RUNS...THE NAM IS A NORTHERN AND WESTERN OUTLIER
WITH ITS HEAVY QPF AXIS FROM NCNTRL TX INTO CNTRL TO ERN OK/FAR
NWRN AR. THE DAY 1 QPF CONTS TO FAVOR A MORE SEWD HEAVY QPF AXIS
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...UKMET AND HI RES ARW. ALL THESE MODELS ARE
EMPHASIZING CONVECTIVE PCPN ALONG THE EWD MOVG FRONTAL BNDRY OVR
ERN TX MORE THAN THE NAM...WHICH HAS SHOWN A BIAS TO BE TOO DRY IN
SIMILAR FLOW REGIMES. THERE ARE SOME DIFFS ALSO WITH THE SPEED AT
WHICH ANY ORGANIZED FRONTAL CONVECTION PUSHES EWD. DAY 1 QPF DID
LEAN TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF AND HI RES ARW
SOLNS HERE WITH WHAT MAY BE AN ORGANIZED N TO SOUTH ORIENTED LINE
OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BNDRY.
AREAL AVG 1-2"+ AMTS DEPICTED DAY 1 FROM NCNTRL TO NERN TX...SERN
OK...WRN AR AND WRN LA.

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN PARTS OF TX...

...TX...
1630Z FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS/WAA/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN VICINITY AND N OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT ARE
SUPPORTING ONGOING TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX TO SRN LA. THIS ACTIVITY
AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NWD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SOMEWHAT LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON /SEE SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 63 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS/. OTHERWISE...THIS
OUTLOOK MAINTAINS THE SLIGHT RISK AS STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SPREAD
EAST OVERNIGHT.

THE ONLY CHANGES WITH THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE ARE TO THE GENERAL TSTM
LINE...1/ MORE OF SWRN NM HAS BEEN ADDED AS TSTMS ARE ONGOING A
LITTLE FARTHER WSW IN SWRN NM ATTENDANT TO THE MIDLEVEL COLD POCKET
WITH THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW...2/ A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE
FL PANHANDLE ARE NOW INCLUDED IN THE GENERAL TSTM AREA FOR A
CONTINUED THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...AND 3/ TSTM THREAT OVER FAR ERN NC
HAS MOVED OFFSHORE.

[Andrew]

For those of you in Tyler County:

[Andrew]

Things are looking good for development out west:

[wxman57]

One of my coworkers received the photo below from a friend at A&M. Looks like winter in College Station, sort of:

[Andrew]

One of my coworkers received the photo below from a friend at A&M. Looks like winter in College Station, sort of:

Either Jeff received the same photo or he has been checking out the forums as he posted the same picture on his most recent email:

Storms firing along northward moving warm front and then pushing northward off the boundary. Storms have been good hail producers this morning and early afternoon with portions of College Station hit fairly good (see attached photo) with small hail.

Warm front currently extends from near Galveston Island to north of Victoria with very strong SE winds found over the areas south of the front. Sea fog bank is forming even with the strong coastal winds and Galveston is already dealing with fog and suspect fog is likely along much of the coast as low to mid 70’s degree dewpoints over S TX come racing northward over the colder water near the coast. Wharton was gusting to 33mph in the last hour. Should see a lull in the activity this evening awaiting strong forcing to arrive overnight with the main upper level storm/surface low. Latest guidance coming in from this morning continues to suggest a large thunderstorms complex will develop over SW and central TX tonight and move ESE/SE toward the TX coast early Wednesday. At the same time large scale ascent will overspread the moistening warm sector possibly allowing for the formation of supercell thunderstorms ahead of the main line with a tornado threat.

Main severe threat will be between about 300am and 300pm on Wednesday with wind damaging from bowing line segments and tornadoes the main threat. Could also see a hail threat across the N and NW areas closer to the mid level cold pool with the upper level storm.

[wxman57]

Don't know where Jeff got the photo. I just got Jeff's email with the photo attached. That's quite a lot of small hail.