January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

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MontgomeryCoWx
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January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Tue Dec 20, 2011 3:23 pm

[*]Too early? Anyone want to start taking shots at our first experiences with 2012?


Here's to a brutally cold and wintry begin to 2012!
Last edited by srainhoutx on Mon Jan 30, 2012 7:06 am, edited 30 times in total.
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Re: SE TX Weather -- January Outlook

Post by srainhoutx » Wed Dec 21, 2011 3:11 pm

Once we get beyond the long Holiday Weekend, I'll post some thoughts regarding January. A little teaser, things are beginning to look a bit interesting around January 12th, +/- a couple of days for significant pattern change... ;)
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Re: SE TX Weather -- January Outlook

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Wed Dec 21, 2011 4:18 pm

Sounds right... That blocking high moves over Alaska around the 1st
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Re: SE TX Weather -- January Outlook

Post by Katdaddy » Wed Dec 21, 2011 7:53 pm

If we can get can get some deeper cold air down from Canada and this active southern storm track continues....maybe just maybe....however only a far off thought for now.

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Re: SE TX Weather -- January Outlook

Post by srainhoutx » Thu Dec 22, 2011 7:25 am

Just for grins and as a teaser looking ahead to January, the la la land 06Z GFS suggests a nice 1056mb Arctic High Pressure across NW Canada and a strong +PNA ridge in the Gulf of Alaska. While we certainly cannot trust the models at this range, it does fit with some of the indications showing a MWW/SSW event and should these trends continue, we may well see a pattern change bringing some mighty chilly air into the lower 48. We will see... ;)
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Re: SE TX Weather -- January Outlook

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Thu Dec 22, 2011 8:01 am

That's a beautiful Omega block in Alaska. :D


I'm definitely ready to hit the slopes in January.
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Re: SE TX Weather -- January Outlook

Post by wxman57 » Thu Dec 22, 2011 11:00 am

Taking a look at the stratospheric temps (10mb) on the GFS for the next 16 days, I see some warming in about 10 days but the warming in western Canada fades after then. 12Z GFS does indicate temps finally falling below normal in western Canada by January 6th, down to 30-35F below normal. Until then, the GFS is indicating temps from 10-30F above normal in western Canada. So we might have a shot at some sub-freezing temps by the 2nd week of January. That's assuming the extended part of the GFS forecast is correct (big assumption). Until then, it looks like a more typical La Nina pattern across the U.S. (not like last year).

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Re: SE TX Weather -- January Outlook

Post by redneckweather » Thu Dec 22, 2011 8:01 pm

Yep, looks like some good solid cold air could be coming down in January BUT the wet pattern we have been in is long gone. Cold without frozen precip (excluding hunting and the holiday season) is for the birds.

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Re: SE TX Weather -- January Outlook

Post by JackCruz » Thu Dec 22, 2011 8:14 pm

I'll still accept the cold..even if we end up snowless....after all it is winter. :)

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Re: SE TX Weather -- January Outlook

Post by wxman57 » Sun Dec 25, 2011 3:04 pm

The latest GFS run dropped the prediction of much-below temps in western Canada in about 14 days. It's considerably warmer than previous runs.

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