January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro suggests a closed core upper low with a bit of phasing with the northern stream energy pulling down some 'colder air' into the Panhandle. The Euro also suggests heavy rainfall/storms across the region on Wednesday...

01232012 12Z Euro f48.gif

01232012 12Z Euro f72.gif

[srainhoutx]

HPC Model Diagnostics Discussion:

...INITIAL WEST COAST TROF/CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS BY THU...

PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE

THE NAM/GFS AND OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS HAD PROVIDED DECENT
STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING AGREEMENT THRU THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THE
UKMET NOW STRAYS FASTER THAN CONSENSUS LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO A
MORE AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM TROF THAT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
SYSTEM OF INTEREST... WHILE THE CANADIAN GLBL TRENDS SWWD OF THE
MAJORITY MODEL CLUSTER BY WED-THU. 06Z GEFS/09Z-12Z SREF MEANS
ALSO REMAIN ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AND TRENDS OVER THE
PAST DAY DO NOT FAVOR THE SLOWER SOLNS. THE 12Z ECMWF ADJUSTS A
LITTLE SLOWER BY THU BUT IS STILL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
NAM/GFS. IN SPITE OF REASONABLE COMPARISON OF THE NAM MID LVL
FCST TO OTHER MDLS... ITS SFC SYSTEM BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD IS WEAKER EXCEPT FOR THE CMC AND 09Z SREF/06Z-12Z GEFS
MEANS WHICH ARE QUESTIONABLY WEAKER AND/OR SLOWER ALOFT. PREFER A
GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE TO REFLECT THE MOST COMMON IDEAS OF
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SFC/ALOFT WITH INTERMEDIATE TIMING.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

[srainhoutx]

HPC Significant River Flooding Outlook...valid 1/23-28/2012...

[Belmer]

The more and more updates that are keep coming in for this rain maker starting tomorrow night, and most of the day on Wednesday is very, very concerning!! The flood event we had a few weeks ago, I was at home for winter break from college still, and I didn't sleep at all that night. I had went to bed around 1:00am, and about 2:00 or so I checked the radar before I was going to finally call it a night just to see if any rain was popping up. Sure enough, a big storm was riding up from 45s and hit the Pasadena area (where my home is) around 3:00am or so. Streets flooded within 5-8 minutes on my street, which is considered to have one of the best drainages in Pasadena, and I also live close to a bayou, so flooding doesn't happen very often at my house. I had to get up and sweep water out of my backyard/porch due to the fast rising water. It was so very close in coming into my house. I haven't done that since Tropical Storm Allison. So that storm a couple weeks ago really caught us off guard.

This looks like it could even be worse, especially if they're preparing for river flooding across all of E and SE Texas. Even parts of Central Texas. I am not home now, I am back at school here in San Marcos, and we're suppose to pick up quite a bit of rain too, but I don't think as much as Houston will see. Going to give my mom a call tomorrow and let her know, cause I won't be there to sweep water out of the backyard/porch this time. That is, if we see another 5 inch per hour rainfall amount.

[djmike]

Question:

Are the 4"-6" rain totals slowly drifting further away from us in the attached pic above? Will those totals drift eastward as the system progresses?

Just curious... Thanks

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors in Central Texas...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
220 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-240300-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
220 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012

...STORM SYSTEM TO BRING BENEFICIAL RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU LATE TUESDAY...THEN EXPAND AND
SPREAD EAST WITH TIME AFFECTING THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO EXIT INTO EAST TEXAS.

SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN
THREAT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL. ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

[Portastorm]

Yes, our local NWSFO has grown more bullish on the event in the last 24 hours. Current outlook calls for 2+ inches of rainfall from the I-35 corridor east with 1-2 inches of rain in the eastern Hill Country. Severe weather possible with hail threat further west and "damaging wind" threat further east for AUS metro.

It's been quite awhile since we've seen severe weather in the AUS area.

[wxman57]

Question:

Are the 4"-6" rain totals slowly drifting further away from us in the attached pic above? Will those totals drift eastward as the system progresses?

Just curious... Thanks

There's no way to tell where training of echoes may set up on Wednesday. Models indicated heavier rain would be north of I-10 on the 9th, and they were wrong. They missed the small area of training echoes across the Brays Bayou watershed that dumped 4-7" of rain. We'll just have to wait and see where the heavier rain develops during the day on Wednesday.

[Portastorm]

Interesting snippet from the afternoon AFD out of NWSFO Austin/San Antonio. While it pertains to the forecast area generally west of you Houston-area folks, the comparisons EWX makes to the Jan. 9th event and comments about the low center are of interest.

ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW TO PROMOTE EXCELLENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR TO
THE UPPER LOW PATTERN WHICH OCCURRED ON MONDAY...JAN 9...THIS
UPPER LOW HAS A SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT OF STABLE AND DRY PACIFIC
AIR EXPECTED TO WRAP AROUND IT AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. HOWEVER...COMPARISON OF THE FORECAST UPPER LOW FOR EARLY
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE ONE THAT MOVED THROUGH ON JAN 9 SHOWS A
SIMILAR SIZE BUT MORE N-S ORIENTATION FOR THE UPCOMING LOW INSTEAD
OF A MORE CIRCULAR AND SLIGHTLY E-W ORIENTATION OF THE JAN 9 LOW.
THUS AM EXPECTING AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR A NEAR SOLID COMPLEX OF
RAIN TO DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES
AND DRAGGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD HOPEFULLY YEILD A BIT MORE RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES AS COMPARED TO THE EVENT FROM JAN 9.

ANOTHER DIFFERENCE IS THAT THIS N-S ORIENTED FOCUS FOR RAIN
SHOULD RESULT IN STRONGER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE N-S AXIS TO
PROMOTE STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME WIND DAMAGE OR EVEN A
WEAK TORNADO. HIGHEST HELICITIES SHOLD BE EXPECTED TO OCCUR S/SE
OF SAT SOME SOME MODEL DATA SHOWING VALUES OF 300 M2/S2. THE
THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS SHOULD BE LESS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT
EVENING TIMING OF CONVECTION AND COLDER AIR ADVECTION ALOFT FROM
THE UPPER LOW COULD SUPPORT A FEW HAIL STORMS. OVERALL THE
OVERNIGHT/DAYBREAK TIMING OF A WINTER EVENT SHOULD MEAN A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX. IN ADDITION
TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...CUMULATIVE RAINS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281 COULD APPROACH 2 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE COUNTIES EAST OF A AUSTIN TO CUERO LINE.

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors in N Texas...I suspect that HGX will have a lengthy discussion as well...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
336 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A QUIET AND PLEASANTLY COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION...THE
PATTERN IS PREPARING TO CHANGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT OUR NEXT
STORM SYSTEM IS DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SLOWLY BEEN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
TONIGHT AND DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE SOME RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA WILL DIG DOWN INTO NEW
MEXICO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH...
TRACK...AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. HOWEVER...THE NAM
CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH THE OVERALL SYSTEM AND REALLY
WRAPS UP THE UPPER LOW. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER LOBE OF
VORTICITY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE CLOSED
LOW...HELPING TO PULL THE TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE BIG BEND
AND DEL RIO AREAS. THIS WILL ALSO ACT TO SLOW DOWN THE OVERALL
SYSTEM WHICH IN TURN HAS LED TO HIGHER POPS CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY AND POPS NOW EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY RETURN NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR WEST. THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO AT LEAST REACH OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
TOMORROW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY
NIGHT IS MINIMAL BUT AN ELEVATED STRONG STORM OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY PRODUCE HAIL NEAR QUARTER SIZE.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ORIENTED
MORE NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES PARALLEL TO BUT NORTH
OF THE TEXAS COAST. WITH THE OVERALL DELAY IN THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST...DO NOT THINK THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS AS
FAST AS THE MODELS DEPICT AND THUS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY
BE ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WHICH WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. AT SOME POINT...IT DOES
APPEAR THAT A SQUALL LINE OF SOME SORT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MOVE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE
ONGOING RAIN AND THICK CLOUD COVER...STILL FEEL THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOW...BUT WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE SOME
SURFACE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. THIS WOULD BE THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE RICH MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BRINGING AN END TO THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. BY THE END OF IT ALL...WIDESPREAD 1-4 INCHES
OF TOTAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION...ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT BUT THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR IMPACTS DUE TO FLOODING WOULD
BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE
FORECASTED TO FALL. WE COULD ALSO SEE RISES ON RIVERS OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING...IN PARTICULAR AT
GREENVILLE AND QUINLAN ON THE SABINE RIVER. WRAP AROUND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST INTO LOUISIANA.

[srainhoutx]

HGX Afternoon Update...chatter is the concern for severe threat and heavy rainfall rates that we just cannot 'pinpoint' at this time...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
359 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH THAT MOVED INTO CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNINGS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD OUT OF THE STATE.

OUR NEXT MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING A
SURGE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO OUR WEST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PRIMARILY THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH A BAND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM NEAR COLLEGE STATION NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CWA
BORDER INTO EAST TEXAS WHILE THE NAM FOCUSES THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS AREA COULD SEE ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS
APPROACHING 5 INCHES...WITH MOST AREAS NORTH OF HOUSTON SEEING TOTALS
OF AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES. AREAS FROM HOUSTON SOUTHWARD CAN
GENERALLY EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BEFORE THE
RAINFALL COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE BIG QUESTION MARK REMAINS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH HELICITY
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 200-300 FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED..ALTHOUGH THE MODEL RUNS TODAY HAVE INCREASED CAPE VALUES
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG
ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A MENTION
OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS.

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors in far SE TX/SW LA, LCH update...

A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...BECOMING DEEPER AS IT CROSSES THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES TONIGHT AND TUE...THE FRONT WILL
MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUE MORNING. WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA AND ISO TSRA BY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND EVENTUALLY
CUTOFF OVER TX...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ON
WED. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
SHRA/TSRA WED. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SFC LOW FORMS ALONG THE TX COAST AND MOVES NE ACROSS
SE TX/W LA. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SVR TSRA DURING THIS
TIME. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS NOT OUTLINED THE REGION IN A SLIGHT
RISK YET THOUGH.

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbor to our SW in the Corpus/Victoria area...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
325 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012

TXZ229>234-239>247-240700-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COTULLA...CALLIHAM...CROSS...
LOMA ALTA...TILDEN...GEORGE WEST...THREE RIVERS...BEEVILLE...
GOLIAD...VICTORIA...LAREDO...FREER...BENAVIDES...SAN DIEGO...
ALICE...ORANGE GROVE...KINGSVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...PORTLAND...
INGLESIDE...ARANSAS PASS...SINTON...MATHIS...ROCKPORT...REFUGIO...
WOODSBORO...PORT LAVACA
325 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012

...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SOUTH TEXAS ON
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT...AND
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
RAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTH...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY INCREASES...AND A WEAK TO MODERATE
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS. THIS
COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
281. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
WILL REALLY BEGIN TO IMPACT SOUTH TEXAS...AIDED IN PART BY
MODERATE TO STRONG FORCING NEAR THE SURFACE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA
DURING LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE POSSIBLY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 2 AM AND
NOON...INITIALLY STARTING OVER THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
OR EVEN SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
AND NORTH OF A CORPUS CHRISTI TO ALICE TO ENCINAL LINE...WITH THE
MAIN CONCERN BEING STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO. WHILE THE CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOWER
SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD NOT BE
RULED OUT.

AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND BRINGS DRIER AND COOLER AIR. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL AVERAGE FROM 1/4
INCH OR LESS OVER THE RIO GRANDE NEAR LAREDO...1/2 INCH OR MORE
NEAR AND NORTH OF A COTULLA TO CORPUS CHRISTI LINE...AND 1 INCH OR
MORE NEAR AND EAST OF A ROCKPORT TO PETTUS LINE.

RESIDENTS...ESPECIALLY EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT...
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS
UPCOMING WEATHER EVENT.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I'm ready for some nowcasting.

[ticka1]

I'm ready for some nowcasting.

LIKE

[sambucol]

I'm ready for some nowcasting.

LIKE

^ditto

[Andrew]

I'm ready for some nowcasting.

LIKE

^ditto

Oh but you can nowscast. You can examine the boundary as it makes it's way north and as the energy approaches from the NW!

http://hdwx.tamu.edu/product.php?productID=22


By the way the 00z GFS came in and is showing more rain totals to the north but the location of the surface low relative to this isn't really matching up in my eyes. It is still probable going to be anyone's guess to where the largest totals setup.

gfs_namer_090_precip_ptot.gif

395990_282284551831590_156353821091331_791860_1778372470_n.jpg

[Ptarmigan]

I get a feeling this is more of a rain event than severe weather event.

[Ptarmigan]

Interesting... I'm going to drop in on Funso and check out his/her power....

Tropical Cyclone Funso is a Category 4 storm. Forecast has it as a Category 5!

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 01208.html

It has been a problem for Mozambique.

[srainhoutx]

The SPC has expanded the Slight Risk to now include SE TX and the HPC is mentioning 2-3+ inches of very heavy rainfall for Central/SE TX with isolated totals of 5+ inches of rain where training sets up in a SW to NE axis from a line from San Antonio to Shreveport and E of that line. PW's of 1.7+ are expected setting the stage for significant very heavy rainfall rates with flooding possible. Severe storms with damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes are expected to begin to develop today across W Central Texas and move E overnight and continue on Wednesday. A deep upper low will rapidly strengthen throughout the day into Wednesday with a 50+ kt low level jet E of this Low shifting E in time. Upper level winds suggest rotating cells and training storms as well as a surface low developing near Corpus translating NE into Wednesday. The 00Z NAM was considered too far N with the axis of heavy rains into OK and was discounted. This is a significant weather event and should be monitored closely today into tomorrow as rainfall rates could exceed 2+ inches per hour and any quickly spin up of tornadoes will likely be rain wrapped and form with little warning. Flash Flooding may well be expected as well and look for very quickly changing developments over the next 24-36 hours. Stay Tuned for further updates.