January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[JackCruz]

Release the COLD

[ticka1]

Release the COLD

I second that - RELEASE THE COLD - this is winter after all.

[srainhoutx]

The major weather headline will likely be the southern cut off low expect to drop S through the Southern Rockies early next week. The HPC has shown interests in this event and has tasked Winter RECON form HI and possibly from AK. The West continues active with a strong flow off the Pacific and changes across the NE Pacific suggest a deep trough and potent U/L energy developing. What remains to be seen is if we see some phasing of the northern jet and southern cut off low. Severe potential increases and future RECON data should iron out the guidance struggles. This event may well have a wide spread impact as it ejects NE.



NOUS42 KNHC 201815
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0115 PM EST FRI 20 JANUARY 2012
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JANUARY 2012
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-051

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49
A. P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 22/0000Z
B. NOAA9 04WSC TRACK56
C. 21/1930Z
D. 16 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 22/0600Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION...
P38/ DROP 9 (34.5N 178.3E)/ 23/0000Z.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE C-130J MISSION
FOR 24/0000Z.
SEF

[srainhoutx]

Wet and stormy via the 00Z Canadian...

[Katdaddy]

Flooding rains and severe weather looking more likely next week. From the mornings Houston-Galveston AFD:

CHANGES BEGIN ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. MOISTURE RETURN IS ROBUST WITH PW VALUES
REACHING 1.40 INCHES BY AFTERNOON. DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
COUPLED WITH A STRONG VORT LOBE SHOULD GIVE THE REGION A CHANCE
OF SHRA/TSRA. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT AND PW VALUES RISE
TO 1.70 INCHES. DYNAMICS LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM
HELICITIES ARE PROGGED TO EXCEED 200 AND THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO 40 KNOTS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTH TEXAS WED MORNING AND THIS FEATURE WILL ELONGATE INTO
WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER FLOW. TRAINING OF STORMS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY
SO FEEL HEAVY RAIN IS A REAL THREAT. THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER
ACROSS TEXAS THURS/FRI KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BRING SOME CLEARING
ON SATURDAY.

[srainhoutx]

The over night guidance remains very persistent suggesting s deep cut off low developing Tuesday in Northern Mexico, very near the Big Bend Region and slowly ejecting E. The 00Z Euro is now on the faster side of all guidance as models continue to struggle with just how fast this deep cyclone ejects NE. It still appears a track across Central Texas will be the likely solution and with pw's near 1.7 and Coastal Low developing along the Middle Texas Coast, a very active period is ahead with wide spread 1-2 inch amounts of rain and isolated 5+ amounts under any heavier storms and where training may become established. Storminess appears to begin late afternoon Tuesday and continue into Wednesday. Wrap around moisture could continue into Thursday as well.

[wxman57]

Models continue to indicate a prolonged rain and possibly severe weather event across TX Wed-Thu (maybe into Fri). Beyond then, there isn't much agreement. Long-range GFS now says no freezing temps here again through the 1st week of February. So much for that big Arctic outbreak it had been forecasting for early February. However, I don't buy its current solution either. I believe it out through about next Tue-Wed, and that's about it. Too much disagreement beyond then.

[srainhoutx]

The cold front has passed NW Harris County at this hour. Temps are in the mid 40's in Austin behind that front. The air is noticeably 'cooler' once the front passes. The $64,000 question will be does it make it to the Coast?

[Portastorm]

We dropped 17 degrees since midnight. Temps bottomed out at 42 degrees here in southwest Austin/Travis County. Temps holding in the mid 40s throughout most of the AUS metro. Definitely feels a bit chillier today!

Meanwhile, the 12z GFS looks a little slower and deeper with next week's storm system.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z version of the GFS suggests the U/L will be further S than previously shown coming onshore along the Central California Coast and dropping SE, S of Arizona into old Mexico...

01212012 12Z GFS gfs_namer_087_500_vort_ht.gif

01212012 12Z GFS gfs_namer_096_500_vort_ht.gif

01212012 12Z GFS gfs_namer_108_500_vort_ht.gif

[srainhoutx]

We dropped 17 degrees since midnight. Temps bottomed out at 42 degrees here in southwest Austin/Travis County. Temps holding in the mid 40s throughout most of the AUS metro. Definitely feels a bit chillier today!

Meanwhile, the 12z GFS looks a little slower and deeper with next week's storm system.

The slower and deeper solution would tend to agree with the pattern we have seen with most of these southern storms since November. The 12Z GFS solution does suggest very heavy rains for drought parched Texas...

01212012 12Z GFS gfs_namer_132_precip_ptot.gif

01212012 12Z GFS gfs_namer_156_precip_ptot.gif

[srainhoutx]

The final go ahead has been given for the 22/00Z Winter RECON mission. Another WSR (Winter Storm RECON) may be scheduled for 1/24. The 1/23 mission has been cancelled.

[mckinne63]

What just happened? Had the a/c on because it was so humid and muggy. Walked outside 15 minutes later and what a change! Forecast said that cool front would be North of here. I'll take the cooler temps.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS is suggesting some 5+ inch totals across Central/E Texas through hour 189. Those are some very impressive totals. The 2200Z RECON data will likely 'settle down' the guidance and offer a sensible solution to exactly what we can expect via the 22/12Z output.

[Portastorm]

I'd definitely sign on for those rainfall totals. Lake Travis is looking mighty paltry these days.

[srainhoutx]

The longer range GFS is suggesting a pattern similar to what the 00Z long range Canadian offered. A deep mid latitude trough develops across the Plains and 'colder air' sinking S into Texas. What remains to be seen is just how much of that cold air building in Western Canada can be tapped. My hunch is a very changeable forecast lies ahead and if things work out just right, much chillier temps and even wintry mischief may be in the cards for parts of Texas...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Canadian also suggests a stalled cut off upper low to our W in old Mexico through late next week with copious rains/storms across the Lone Star State.

[txflagwaver]

Still warm and muggy here

[tireman4]

Still warm and muggy here in Humble. I want the front to come through so my run does not feel like a torture chamber. Sigh.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro is onboard with a deep closed core upper low to our W in old Mexico as well bringing heavy rains/storms to Texas...edit to add the Euro has also slowed the progression of the U/L keeping rain chances around until next Friday...

01212012 12Z Euro f96.gif

01212012 12Z Euro f120.gif

01212012 12Z Euro f144.gif