January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests heavy rains/storms breaking out across Central/SE TX as well as heavy rains N of the boundary across N TX. The upper low closes off near the Big Bend Region as copious moisture streams N from the Gulf...there is even a hint of a meso yet again via the GFS...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Where in the world was that taken? LOL

So cold the car flipped on its side.

LOL, stupid droid camera

[wxman57]

To add some fuel to the fire (or should I say "ice"), take a gander at the possibilities alluded to by David Tolleris with Wxrisk.com:

http://www.wxrisk.com/2012/01/big-berth ... t-sisters/

I like this part:
As you can see from the image it is readily apparent that the NAO and AO have only drop into the negative territory twice since the up SEPT 15 !!! But more importantly since December there had been a several tries or surges where both the NAO and the AO have reached the Neutral Line — which I have Number as you can see. And every case the model data showing the AO or the NAO would drop to negative territory but in every instance - EVERY INSTANCE– both the AO and the NAO bounced back up strongly into positive territory and all of the model data turned out to be disastrously wrong. So again if you’re absolutely certain that the pattern to turn around and that it is going to turn out to be a great February and March 2012… BE CAREFUL. The trend here is not your friend. Of course that’s not to say the trend can not be broken but it does need to be respected.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS also suggests a Coastal Low developing during the day on Wednesday along the Lower Texas Coast. The closed upper low remains nearly stationary and pumps abundant moisture and instability across the eastern half of Texas as the Coastal low slowly treks NE up the coast...

[tireman4]

I thought he was drunk or frozen stiff taking that picture....LOL

[Big O]

To add some fuel to the fire (or should I say "ice"), take a gander at the possibilities alluded to by David Tolleris with Wxrisk.com:

http://www.wxrisk.com/2012/01/big-berth ... t-sisters/

I like this part:
As you can see from the image it is readily apparent that the NAO and AO have only drop into the negative territory twice since the up SEPT 15 !!! But more importantly since December there had been a several tries or surges where both the NAO and the AO have reached the Neutral Line — which I have Number as you can see. And every case the model data showing the AO or the NAO would drop to negative territory but in every instance - EVERY INSTANCE– both the AO and the NAO bounced back up strongly into positive territory and all of the model data turned out to be disastrously wrong. So again if you’re absolutely certain that the pattern to turn around and that it is going to turn out to be a great February and March 2012… BE CAREFUL. The trend here is not your friend. Of course that’s not to say the trend can not be broken but it does need to be respected.

Selectively quoting to feed your warm-mongering spirit??

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I like that meso picture forming!

[srainhoutx]

And looking ahead in GFS world...oh my....

[srainhoutx]

I think I just heard Mr. Extreme Heat aka wxman57 hit the floor...

[wxman57]

I doubt that the GFS is handling next week's system well. Look for some significant changes in its handling of the upper trof/upper low in the next day or so.

I'll get more concerned, srain, when you start posting graphics of the 24hr GFS that show the cold coming and not the 336hr maps.

However, it's interesting to note that the 12Z GFS doesn't have IAH below freezing through 384 hrs. Only 35F at IAH for the 384hr panel. Of course, I don't believe that, either.

[srainhoutx]

I doubt that the GFS is handling next week's system well. Look for some significant changes in its handling of the upper trof/upper low in the next day or so.

I'll get more concerned, srain, when you start posting graphics of the 24hr GFS that show the cold coming and not the 336hr maps.

Just like you have been plugging away at those 360 hour Euro weeklies?

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Canadian has the upper low near the CA/AZ border on Tuesday sliding SE.

01192012 12Z Canadian 12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_132.jpg

01192012 12Z Canadian 12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

[MontgomeryCoWx]

and just like that, the board starts to come alive...

[wxman57]

I doubt that the GFS is handling next week's system well. Look for some significant changes in its handling of the upper trof/upper low in the next day or so.

I'll get more concerned, srain, when you start posting graphics of the 24hr GFS that show the cold coming and not the 336hr maps.

Just like you have been plugging away at those 360 hour Euro weeklies?

By the way, the latest Euro weekly has our temps 2F above normal for week 3 and 4 (Jan 31-Feb 13).

[srainhoutx]

I doubt that the GFS is handling next week's system well. Look for some significant changes in its handling of the upper trof/upper low in the next day or so.

I'll get more concerned, srain, when you start posting graphics of the 24hr GFS that show the cold coming and not the 336hr maps.

Just like you have been plugging away at those 360 hour Euro weeklies?

By the way, the latest Euro weekly has our temps 2F above normal for week 3 and 4 (Jan 31-Feb 13).

I'm still waiting on those hot and dry forecasts from the Euro weeklies to verify for our area that they have been soooo adamant about since November...

[srainhoutx]

lol...the longer range Canadian retrogrades the upper low back out into the Pacific. I guess in typical Canadian fashion, storm warning would need to be issued for Southern California...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro now joins the other guidance with closing off the upper low near/just W of the Big Bend Region. That model also suggests a wet and stormy Wednesday across much of Texas...

[srainhoutx]

The Euro now joins the Canadian suggesting a retrograding upper low to the SW with storms still firing across the eastern half of Texas...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z UKMet also suggests a closed upper low to our W...

[svrwx0503]

As srain has alluded to, models continue to struggle with next week's pattern as the euro after consistently being the most progressive with the trough has now trended slightly slower than the GFS. After some discussion around the office, I am still inclined to lean toward a more progressive scenario. I do not think that we will see any cut-off low retrograde as far southwest as the 12z euro currently suggests...a more likely outcome would be closer to the 12z GFS with the low sitting around the Big Bend area before getting picked up by the westerlies. Nevertheless, it looks like we will have to watch for some active weather toward the middle of next week and then possibly turning colder as we end out the month.