January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[srainhoutx]

New SPC Convective Outlook will be issued shortly

[MontgomeryCoWx]

wow, what a drought buster.....

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1007 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SE
TX AND SW LA...

...UPPER TX AND SW LA COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL LOW OVER THE TX BIG BEND THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS ENEWD
OVER CENTRAL TX BY TONIGHT. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL LOW...A
SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A PRE-EXISTING FRONT
ACROSS SE TX BY THIS EVENING...AND THE LOW WILL DEVELOP NNEWD INTO E
TX OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN INFLUX OF MID-UPPER 60S BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST INTO SW LA
IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THE RICH MOISTURE WILL HELP MAINTAIN MLCAPE
VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE VWP FROM HOUSTON AND MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST...WITHIN THE
LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND SPREAD EWD
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT IS NEAR ITS PEAK IN TERMS OF
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD/NEWD
AND AWAY FROM THE MOST UNSTABLE PART OF THE WARM SECTOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THUS...THE RISK FOR A TORNADO OR
TWO...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WILL LIKELY PEAK
BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN
/NEAR AND S OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA/...AND THEN DIMINISH SOME
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OVERNIGHT...THE RISK FOR A TORNADO OR
DAMAGING GUST WILL SPREAD INTO SW LA...WHERE THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE NW GULF. THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY
WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL BE IN QUESTION AS A RESULT OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BETWEEN NOW AND TONIGHT FROM SE TX INTO W/SW
LA.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Excessive rainfall rates pounding the US 59 corridor. Flash Flood Warning is in effect until 100pm for Harris, Fort Bend, and Wharton counties.

Hourly rainfall rates from HCFCD gages showing over 3.50 inches with 15-min rainfall rates of 1.76 inches over western Harris County. Line of excessive rainfall currently extends from Wharton to downtown Houston. Large HP supercell which moved through western Harris County with wind damage has weakened. Appears the main axis of heavy rainfall will be shifting to the coastal counties over the next 1-2 hours.

Significant street flooding is in progress over portions of Harris and Fort Bend counties with numerous street impassable. Once given time, storm water will drain off when the rainfall slows.

Tornado threat remains for cells that develop and move into the line from the south or from spin ups along the line…main threat appears to be from Jackson County to southern Liberty County and southward.

[Andrew]

20,000 reported without power currently by centerpoint.

[tireman4]

There is intense rain, pea sized hail and wind in the Gulfgate area. Goodness

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Flood Warning for Liberty, Montgomery, Polk and San Jacinto Counties until 1:30PM

[srainhoutx]

When things settle down a bit, some interesting developments regarding the late week/weekend time frame. But let's get past the current situation before taking on that discussion...

[Andrew]

When things settle down a bit, some interesting developments regarding the late week/weekend time frame. But let's get past the current situation before taking on that discussion...

Haha was about to post that but we can talk later Radar continues to indicate training on the south side...

[srainhoutx]

Jeff reports water out of banks along Mayde Creek and Greenhouse Rd. Minimal effects though...so far...

[JackCruz]

Heavy rain just stopped in my area....thunder roaring....lightning illuminating the sky...crazyyyyy...it's done for now though. Sky is looking a lot brighter. Hope we get more rain in my area.

Upper 20's for lows later this week? All we need is precip...come on Mother Nature.

[tireman4]

After the Summer of Wither, who would have thought we would have a rainy December and part January? Goodness. Rain still coming down ( but has slackened somewhat) in the Gulfgate area.

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Flash Flood Warning for Chambers, Harris & Liberty Counties until 1:30PM

[wxman57]

12Z GFS indicating cold rain next Saturday again. Light freeze Friday. Canadian & Euro (Euro in particular) have been considerably drier with the next event. Here's a meteogram based on the 12Z GFS.

[ticka1]

Anyone know how bad the flooding is downtown? Is the rain tapering off?

[Ounce]

Narrow temperature spread for Saturday and Sunday, to boot. That's good for running.

Hey, Tireman4, KBFitz thinks that you're digital only, so appearing on Saturday would dispel that.


Oz

[srainhoutx]

HGX continues Flash Flood Warning for Harris, Ft Bend and Wharton Counties until 1:00PM

[tireman4]

Narrow temperature spread for Saturday and Sunday, to boot. That's good for running.

Hey, Tireman4, KBFitz thinks that you're digital only, so appearing on Saturday would dispel that.


Oz

Humm, good to hear on the temperatures for the weekend. Again, it could be a perfect day for running. Fast times. Ryan Hall thinks the times will be under 2:09. I am inclined to believe him. He is the odds on favorite, for he has run a 2:04 at Boston. Thanks Ounce. LOL. I will be there. Trust me, I would not miss this.

[Ptarmigan]

I have never heard so much thunder in a while. This has to be the heaviest rain in over a year.

[wxman57]

Narrow temperature spread for Saturday and Sunday, to boot. That's good for running.

Hey, Tireman4, KBFitz thinks that you're digital only, so appearing on Saturday would dispel that.


Oz

Humm, good to hear on the temperatures for the weekend. Again, it could be a perfect day for running. Fast times. Ryan Hall thinks the times will be under 2:09. I am inclined to believe him. He is the odds on favorite, for he has run a 2:04 at Boston. Thanks Ounce. LOL. I will be there. Trust me, I would not miss this.

Low 40s with moderate to heavy rain is perfect weather? I wouldn't even go outside in that weather much less run 26 miles in it.