January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[srainhoutx]

Form Midalnd/Odessa in the cold sector and NESDIS...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/09/12 1105Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1045Z JANKOT
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...NEW MEXICO...
.
ATTN WFOS...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...MOD TO HEAVY SNOWS
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW UPPER-LOW JUST SSW OF NEW MEXICO WITH HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE OVER W TX SETTING THE STAGE FOR MOD TO HEAVY SNOWS
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE EXPERIMENTAL SATELLITE WIND PRODUCT INDICATES
SUB-TROPICAL JET NOSING INTO SW TX WITH DISCUSSION REGION IN LEFT
EXIT REGION OF JET PROVIDING FAVORABLE DYNAMICS TO INCREASE LIFT THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. IR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS DEFORMATION AXIS RIGHT THROUGH
WEST TX WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED LATER THIS MORNING AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT USHERS IN CHANGING MUCH OF PRECIP OVER TO SNOW. BLENDED
TPW HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS OF .6-.7"
THROUGHOUT DISCUSSION REGION PROVIDING IDEAL PW'S TO SUPPORT MOD TO HEAVY
SNOWS. THIS MOISTURE LEVEL IS RUNNING 175-225% ANOMALIES OF NORMAL. WITH
RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGHEST OMEGAS OVER DISCUSSION REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z EXPECT PRECIP TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1115-1515Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER W TX
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH UPWARDS OF 1-1.5"/HR SNOW RATES IN BEST BANDING
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
.

[srainhoutx]

Folks in Western Montgomery County heads up as strong storm moves out of Waller County heading NE.

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
511 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 AM     TSTM WND DMG     12 NE BRYAN             30.79N 96.22W
01/09/2012                   BRAZOS             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES BLOWN DOWN NEAR OSR AND FOUNTAIN SWISS RD IN NE
            BRAZOS COUNTY.

[djjordan]

Hoping Lake Conroe can get some heavy rainfall out of this without the severe implications.

[srainhoutx]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
519 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

TXC225-313-407-455-471-091145-
/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120109T1145Z/
HOUSTON TX-MADISON TX-SAN JACINTO TX-TRINITY TX-WALKER TX-
519 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 AM CST FOR WALKER...
TRINITY...SAN JACINTO...MADISON AND HOUSTON COUNTIES...

AT 512 AM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH ROTATION. THIS POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS LOCATED
7 MILES SOUTH OF MIDWAY...OR 10 MILES EAST OF MADISONVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SEBASTOPOL...TRINITY AND LOVELADY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STRONG WINDS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES OR DAMAGE
BUILDINGS. TAKE COVER NOW!

THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE ACROSS NORTHEAST
BRAZOS COUNTY.

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL YOU
SEE OR HEAR A TORNADO - TAKE COVER NOW!

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
517 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...SINGER...MERRYVILLE...DE RIDDER...

* UNTIL 545 AM CST

* AT 515 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SINGER...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
JUNCTION AND TULLA

[srainhoutx]

Storms with heavy rainfall rates moving into Austin County. Trends suggest training and areas upstream in Waller/NW Harris/Montgomery/Grimes and Walker Counties are in the path of this NE moving complex.

[srainhoutx]

Surface analysis suggest a surface 1006 mb low is developing between Zepata and Alice in S Texas. Additions shower/storms should develop near Corpus and points E as this low treks E.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/09/12 1138Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1132Z JANKOT
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...FWD...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...HEAVY RAINS
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WITH WATER VAPOR SHOWING TROF AXIS
SHIFTING EAST LAST SEVERAL HOURS EXPECT INCREASED HEAVY RAIN THREAT THIS
MORNING AS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIFT. LAST FEW
IR IMAGES HAS SHOWN RAPIDLY EXPANDING AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER SE AND
E TX WITH MERGERS LIKELY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES. TOPS HAVE COOLED TO
-63C AND SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE LOW INVOF
COLORADO COUNTY PROVIDING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. BLENDED TPW
PRODUCT HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW INCREASING GULF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO
E AND CENTRAL TX WITH DISCUSSION REGION SEEING ROUGHLY 1.4" PWATS. EXPECT
1-2"/HR RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS OF
CELL MERGERS.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1145-1445Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT HEAVY RAIN RATES FROM COLORADO ENE GRIMES COUNTY
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH 1-2"/HR RATES POSSIBLE. WITH SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
MAXIMIZED OVER REGION EXPECT UPWIND DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME
TRAINING. 3 HR FFG IS HIGH SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDE SPREAD FLASH FLOODING
BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS A QUICK 2-4" OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN SUCH HIGH MOISTURE.

[srainhoutx]

Radar estimates suggest near 1.5 inch per hour rates in Fayette/Austin Counties slowly moving ENE.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
552 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

TXZ199-212-213-091245-
HARRIS-MONTGOMERY-WALLER-
552 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 547 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PINEHURST...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH. THIS STORM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF ROTATION AND
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

FUNNEL CLOUDS...PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAGNOLIA...STAGECOACH
AND PINEHURST.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH CANS TO
BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE OR NON-CONVERTIBLE
AUTOMOBILE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
558 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

TXC149-285-091400-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FA.Y.0001.120109T1158Z-120109T1400Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FAYETTE-LAVACA-
558 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN...
CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTY...
LAVACA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 800 AM CST

* AT 557 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL FAYETTE
AND LAVACA COUNTIES. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES OF
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
INCLUDE...HALLETTSVILLE...MOULTON...SCHULENBURG...SHINER...
YOAKUM...EZZELL...SPEAKS AND SUBLIME.

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors to the NE...

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
531 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DRIFTING TOWARD
THE FOUR STATE REGION ACROSS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT WILL EXTEND WEST TO EAST FROM SOUTH TEXAS ACROSS THE AREA.
DISTURBANCES EJECTING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL BE COMBINING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER-RIDING THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
WHICH WILL BE DEVELOPING AND RIDING OVER THE SAME GENERAL
LOCATIONS.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-091930-
/O.NEW.KSHV.FF.A.0001.120109T1200Z-120110T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...
SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HOMER...RUSTON...
FARMERVILLE...MANSFIELD...COUSHATTA...BIENVILLE...JONESBORO...
MONROE...MANY...NATCHITOCHES...WINNFIELD...COLFAX...COLUMBIA...
JENA...IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...
PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...GILMER...
JEFFERSON...TYLER...LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...RUSK...HENDERSON...
CARTHAGE...NACOGDOCHES...CENTER...LUFKIN...SAN AUGUSTINE...
HEMPHILL
531 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
IN ARKANSAS...COLUMBIA...HEMPSTEAD...HOWARD...LAFAYETTE...
LITTLE RIVER...MILLER...NEVADA...SEVIER AND UNION AR. IN
LOUISIANA...BIENVILLE...BOSSIER...CADDO...CALDWELL...
CLAIBORNE...DE SOTO...GRANT...JACKSON...LA SALLE...LINCOLN...
NATCHITOCHES...OUACHITA...RED RIVER...SABINE LA...UNION LA...
WEBSTER AND WINN. IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MCCURTAIN. IN
TEXAS...ANGELINA...BOWIE...CAMP...CASS...CHEROKEE...FRANKLIN...
GREGG...HARRISON...MARION...MORRIS...NACOGDOCHES...PANOLA...
RED RIVER...RUSK...SABINE TX...SAN AUGUSTINE...SHELBY...
SMITH...TITUS...UPSHUR AND WOOD.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD ONE TO NEAR
THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO FOUR OR FIVE INCHES.

* LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE RISING WATER
THAT COULD POSE A THREAT TO MOTORISTS AND PROPERTY OWNERS.
HEAVY RAIN OVER HILLY AND MOUNTAINOUS AREAS CAN PRODUCE RAPID
WATER RUNOFF THAT CAN MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS LOW WATER CROSSINGS
AND BRIDGES.

[srainhoutx]

TORNADO WARNING
TXC339-091300-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0003.120109T1202Z-120109T1300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
602 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 700 AM CST

* AT 600 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR MAGNOLIA... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MAGNOLIA...LAKE CONROE DAM...WILLIS...PINEHURST...PANORAMA VILLAGE
AND CONROE.

[srainhoutx]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
610 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

TXC373-407-455-091245-
/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120109T1245Z/
POLK TX-SAN JACINTO TX-TRINITY TX-
610 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 AM CST FOR
TRINITY...SAN JACINTO AND POLK COUNTIES...

AT 606 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR TRINITY...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. A BROAD
ROTATION IS STILL PRESENT WITH THIS STORM...BUT HAS TRENDED WEAKER
WITH TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO MAKE SURE THIS IS NOT
TEMPORARY.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TRINITY...SEBASTOPOL AND NORTHERN LAKE LIVINGSTON

[srainhoutx]

Folks in Waller County heads up. Some rotation suggested with a cell near Hockley/Waller.

[srainhoutx]

Folks in Washington and Austin Counties heads up. Some weak rotation suggested from cell in NE Fayette County moving ENE.

[djjordan]

This looks to be setting up as a very serious situation for our CWA this morning. Montgomery County looks to be set up for a classic training situation for the next couple of hours. It's not just Montgomery but areas to the West and South as well ...... watch out for local flooding this morning.

[srainhoutx]

Yes, it does...hot off the presses. Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Highly active weather day on tap for today.

Potent upper level low near El Paso this morning will drive heavy rainfall and a slight chance of severe thunderstorms today. Main threat will focus on the rainfall potential. Diffuse frontal boundary currently is nearly stationary along a line from Lufkin to Brenham to NW of Victoria and then WSW to a surface low over the Rio Grande plains. Numerous HP supercells have developed along this boundary this morning with excessive short term rainfall rates and weak low level rotation. Streaks of very heavy rainfall 2-3 inches have already been observed by both Doppler radar and HCFCD rain gage network. Given the increasing large scale lift approaching from the upper level low to our west along with a slow moving surface boundary in the region, heavy to excessive rainfall is likely today with moisture levels pushing 175-200% above normal for early January. PWS have surged into the 1.3-1.5 inch range overnight and may peak near 1.6 inches by early this afternoon with the air mass saturated from the surface to the upper levels. This is support excessive rainfall of 1-2 inches per hour under the stronger cells. While cell motions have been 10-15mph this morning, the stronger supercells have tended to anchor in the low level flow and stretch out allowing a longer duration of heavy rainfall over the same location. Additionally, storms have been forming in linear lines and training toward the NNE which is also adding to the short term rainfall totals. Given some locations have already received over 3 inches this morning, feel storm totals will need to be bumped up to isolated amounts of 5-6 inches. Amounts of this magnitude would normal require a Flash Flood Watch, but the ongoing drought and overall dry soil conditions and low watershed water levels will preclude a watch at this time. However rapid street flooding and significant rises on urban bayous will be possible today with short term excessive rainfall.

Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be widespread today with isolated totals of 5-6 inches especially in training lines.

Other threat is the severe threat and this is marginal and mainly limited to a weak tornado threat along and SE of the above mentioned frontal boundary. Low level wind shear is more than favorable for storm rotation and in fact we have already seen rotation and warnings issued for cells up north around Huntsville this morning. However even with the favorable low level shear in place, instability remains limited so the threat for tornadoes while nonzero is low. Any storm rotation that does form will likely be short lived, but could produce a brief spin up. Current cell over SW Montgomery County looks particularly nasty.

Area will be under the gun through late this afternoon or until the surface low moves east of SE TX dragging the frontal boundary off the coast along with the deep moisture. While the upper level storms will not cross the area until later tonight, it appears a dry slot on the southern flank of the system will sweep into the region by mid evening helping to end the rainfall. Upper storm will be crossing eastern TX early Tuesday with wrap around clouds and possibly some light rainfall over our northern and eastern counties.

Strong cold front expected to cross the region Wednesday with a decent tap of cold air dropping into the plains and southward into TX ending this mild stretch of weather. Potential for light freezes both Thursday and Friday mornings. Models remain in poor agreement on if/when the next storm system/ short wave affects TX and how much cold air is in place. For now will side with the slower model solutions and delay the onset of any rain chances until next weekend.

[srainhoutx]

Cloud tops are cooling significantly from Fayette to Montgomery Counties. Rainfall rates nearing 2 inch per hour now. It appears the boundary may be sagging S a touch. Harris County needs to keep an eye on the trends as the morning progresses.