January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[srainhoutx]

Heh...the Canadian says, hold there GFS, regarding late next week...

[BiggieSmalls]

In other words, it just isn't going to get extremely cold this winter, and the sooner we accept that the better.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

That's not what anyone is saying at all. Plenty of time for cold weather here... all it takes is one storm to cover the plains.

[Ptarmigan]

Here's a meteogram based on the 06Z GFS. It shows 2 rainfall maxima early next week, one early Monday morning and the second during the day on Tuesday. Note the projected high of 41 next Friday. Guess I won't be biking THAT day, and it's looking fairly cold for marathon weekend. Also note the projected 850mb temps of 50 degrees through the precip next Mon/Tue. Just cold rain for us.

Still looks like a chance of some more significant cold late in the month. I certainly don't buy any GFS solution of winter precip (snow) here that far out. About 99.9% of the time when it forecasts such a thing it's wrong. But I do think we could see a freeze with temps into the mid to upper 20s late this month.

The 0.1% of the time it gets it right. Anyways, we could use the rain and I can live without any wintry precipitation as long as we get rain.

[Ptarmigan]

Quite a big change for next Friday on the latest GFS. It was forecasting rain and a high near 40 at 06Z. Rain from late Sunday night until just before sunrise on Tuesday. Nothing too heavy indicated in any 3-hr period, though.

I wonder if there will be night time thunderstorms that wake us up. Those are rare in January, but do occur.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Well hello there Canadian Run!

[wxman57]

In other words, it just isn't going to get extremely cold this winter, and the sooner we accept that the better.

The longer we go without any appreciable snow on the ground to our north, the less the chance of any really cold weather down here. But winter is only 2 weeks old, so I think it's a tad early to declare it to be over (as much as I'd like to).

[Portastorm]

Well hello there Canadian Run!

Yep, if I'm reading that map correctly ... there could be some wintry "mischief" for west-central-southeast portions of Texas later next week! Then again, we are talking about the Canadian here.

[srainhoutx]

Heh...let it snow, let it snow, let it snow via the Canadian...we will see...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

heyooooo

[Andrew]

The CMC shows one heck of a storm! If that run would come true watch out because it would be one heck of a system for all of central and eastern USA.

[Ptarmigan]

Speaking of freezes.

December 1983
ENSO
Neutral (Came off of El Nino)

PDO
Warm

NAO
0.3
Positive

AO
0.186
Positive

PNA
-0.31
Negative


December 1989
ENSO
Neutral (Came off of La Nina)

PDO
Slight Cool

NAO
-3.4
Negative

AO
-0.644
Negative

PNA
0.87
Positive

December 1983 Freeze
http://arkansasweather.blogspot.com/201 ... break.html

December 1989 Freeze
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/events/Dec1989/

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z UKMet is similar to what the GFS/Canadian solution offered regarding the U/L and its trek across Texas. I will note that by hour 144, that model does suggest a front diving S into the Plains as well...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

This is such a beautiful map to me.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/events/Dec1989/figure9.png

[redneckweather]

And this is a La Nina? Seriously?

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro is coming in a tad further S with the U/L for early next week. That model also suggests a front diving S into the Plains behind the upper low for Wednesday night into Thursday. It also suggests a total distruption of the Alaska Vortex that has plagued them for so long and cold air spills due S along the lee side of the Rockies.

[biggerbyte]

Exciting times, folks. Short term.. Watch out for rain and storm chances. More on that tomorrow. Long term... The prospects look interesting. We'll have to wait and see how it all plays out. I'm more concerned about getting just enough cold air and conditions down here to produce snow, than I am about snow pack up north. It only needs to be cold enough. If we can get a major outbreak of cold air pushing south, I think most would be running for the fireplace, snow pack up north or not. Otherwise, without our friends up north getting some sticking "wintry mischief" of their own, these cold fronts will only somewhat moderate, and leave us with what we have been getting.

[biggerbyte]

And this is a La Nina? Seriously?

I know, right. Remember all the hype about how the drought was going to continue all the way through Spring of 2012. Long term showed this La Nina pattern and it was going to be dry, dry, dry. Models, models, and MORE MODELS. Yet another example. Need I say AGAIN, that long term forecasting is useless. May as well dig out the Almanac.

[Portastorm]

Interesting to see the 12z Euro agree with the CMC about the upper level energy crossing the state later next week ... and that would be AFTER the cold/polar airmass is in place. However, the Euro seems drier than the CMC with the system ... perhaps because it appears to be more of an open wave than an intact ULL.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting to see the 12z Euro agree with the CMC about the upper level energy crossing the state later next week ... and that would be AFTER the cold/polar airmass is in place. However, the Euro seems drier than the CMC with the system.

The more interesting feature is the 5H low trekking E from the Desert SW yet again. The GFS retrograde that W in the Pacific, but the Euro is bringing it E. What will be interesting to watch the next several days is the coastal trough/low development that the 06Z GFS sniffed out and lost , yet the Canadian went bonkers with it.