January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I know this "wintry mischief" is still in the long range forecast, but the GFS keeps predicting some winter weather long term, so I'm going to go with SE Texas (probably the northern counties) getting some kind of winter weather storm in the next 4-5 weeks.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I'd take it...

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false


http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

Edited to remove hot links that weren't working ... wxman57


Thanks wxman57

[wxman57]

Here's a meteogram based on the 06Z GFS. It shows 2 rainfall maxima early next week, one early Monday morning and the second during the day on Tuesday. Note the projected high of 41 next Friday. Guess I won't be biking THAT day, and it's looking fairly cold for marathon weekend. Also note the projected 850mb temps of 50 degrees through the precip next Mon/Tue. Just cold rain for us.

Still looks like a chance of some more significant cold late in the month. I certainly don't buy any GFS solution of winter precip (snow) here that far out. About 99.9% of the time when it forecasts such a thing it's wrong. But I do think we could see a freeze with temps into the mid to upper 20s late this month.

[srainhoutx]

I'd take it...

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

Edited to remove hot links that weren't working ... wxman57

Fixed these for you, MontgomeryCoWx

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Thanks to both of you.... still getting used to the forum.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

What do you guys think the likelihood of the NWS issuing Flash Flood Watches for our area during this upcoming event?

[wxman57]

What do you guys think the likelihood of the NWS issuing Flash Flood Watches for our area during this upcoming event?

We don't really get flash floods in southeast Texas. Our floods tend to be of the slowly developing kind. We get street flooding with heavy rain, and I suspect we could see a little of that for short periods of time in some areas. If we're lucky, we may all see 1-2 inches of rain. Nothing to cause any real problems.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

What part of Metro Houston do you think stands a chance at seeing the highest rainfall totals? Or are we too far out to make a judgement on that?

[wxman57]

What part of Metro Houston do you think stands a chance at seeing the highest rainfall totals? Or are we too far out to make a judgement on that?

Ask again on Monday and Tuesday. Won't be able to tell that until the event is in progress.

[srainhoutx]

What part of Metro Houston do you think stands a chance at seeing the highest rainfall totals? Or are we too far out to make a judgement on that?

My hunch is N and E of DT Houston. It's still too far out to know with any certainty and a lot will depend on exactly where the boundary stalls across the area. That sort of 'finer detail' will not be known until we see how everything shapes up.

[redneckweather]

wxman, where is that moisture coming from at the end of next week on your meteogram?

[wxman57]

wxman, where is that moisture coming from at the end of next week on your meteogram?

The 6z GFS was developing a wave on the front off the lower TX coast. You can see it here:



Note that the 12Z GFS dropped the feature.

[srainhoutx]

A bit different view today of the 12Z GFS suggests the U/L will trek from the 4 Corners Region across Southern New Mexico and on into Texas near or just S of the Red River Valley. The Coastal low looks to cross SE TX and heavy rains would end Tuesday morning via the GFS solution...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

srain... does this affect rainfall totals differently from yesterday?

[srainhoutx]

srain... does this affect rainfall totals differently from yesterday?

According to the GFS, no. Rain/storms move W to E on Sunday from Central Texas and linger into Monday night. Again, the U/L is just entering the RAOB network and we'll just need to see what future guidance suggests as the weekend unfolds. The shorter range meso guidance can key in on some 'finer details' and convective MSC data/potential as we get closer.

[redneckweather]

Thanks wxman. What location do you run your metrogram off of, IAH?

[wxman57]

Thanks wxman. What location do you run your metrogram off of, IAH?

Yes, it says IAH at the top. But they can be made for any lat/lon. My tutorial is still atop the weather forum listing.

New (12Z) GFS looks warmer later this month. Only a very light freeze next Friday and no further freeze through 384 hrs.

[srainhoutx]

Fairly good agreement with the GFS from the 12Z Canadian...

[wxman57]

Quite a big change for next Friday on the latest GFS. It was forecasting rain and a high near 40 at 06Z. Rain from late Sunday night until just before sunrise on Tuesday. Nothing too heavy indicated in any 3-hr period, though.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

based off your meteogram we are looking at about 1-1.5 inches of rain for IAH.

Not bad, but I hope to see 2 plus in Conroe.