January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[srainhoutx]

And look at the cold air dropping S behind that upper low...

Can't tell what that chart represents, srain. What is the valid time? I'm comparing it to the Euro ensemble and operational forecasts (which are both much warmer) and can't match it up with anything.

That was hour 240, wxman57 via Allan's site. Here is what the 850's actual are showing via Allan's page...

[wxman57]

Hmm, can't find it. I did find this one that has the same label but much warmer temps over TX:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... yNA240.gif

And it looks like both charts are yesterday's 12Z run. Today's Euro 12Z ensemble run is in through 36 hrs now.

It appears we're going to get the Euro data via WSI's energycast website this year. At only about $2000/mo it's about 1/10th the cost of buying the raw Euro data. Maps update the instant the data are available, as the site is designed for meteorologists in the energy trading business. Can't post any of the images, but I can post a shot of what we get in the way of parameters for the Euro:

[srainhoutx]

It could be a coding issue on Allan's site. I'll check with him and see if there any issues, wxman57.

[srainhoutx]

Also of note is the UKMet drops the U/L into Northern Mexico just S of Big Bend by hour 144.

[wxman57]

It could be a coding issue on Allan's site. I'll check with him and see if there any issues, wxman57.

I don't think it's an issue, I think that today's 12Z ensembles just aren't updated yet on his site.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Also of note is the UKMet drops the U/L into Northern Mexico just S of Big Bend by hour 144.

Wouldn't that track it closer to the coast meaning a colder atmosphere across more of Houston Metro?

[wxman57]

Where do you get the UKMET beyond 120 hrs?

[srainhoutx]

Where do you get the UKMET beyond 120 hrs?

PSU site has it out to 144.

01032012 12Z UKMet f144.gif

It did check the PSU site for hour 216 via the Euro. It is warmer, so there may well be an issue with Allan's site today. I am waiting on a response from him, wxman57.

01032012 12Z Euro f216.gif

[wxman57]

Euro ensembles in through 360 hrs now. Coldest is Friday 13th when it forecasts about -2C below normal at 850mb over Houston. Slow warming after then is indicated. At the surface, the 12Z Euro ensembles have us above freezing (Houston) through the 18th (360 hrs). The operational Euro only goes out 240 hrs but has us above freezing through then.

[srainhoutx]

Heh...flip flopping along, the 18Z GFS is going to agree with the 12Z Euro and cut off the late weekend U/L in S California/Arizona.

[srainhoutx]

For the star gazers, the Quadrantid Meteor Shower peaks tonight around 1:20 AM. Look NE away from light pollution and you could see 100 meteors per hour.

[JackCruz]

I predict many chances for snow/sleet coming to the end of January.

[sleetstorm]

Gene Norman said it would be from 3:00 a.m.-5:00 a.m. early tomorrow morning, srainhoutx. I have the alarm on my cell phone set to 3 a.m. just so I can watch it.

What signs are you seeing that SE Texas will get many chances of sleet/snow near the end of this month, JackCruz?

[srainhoutx]

Showers and light rain look to stay confined to our offshore waters and possibly the Coastal Counties Thursday if the WRF/NMM is correct...speaking of Gene, he owes us a visit with that New Years Resolution of his...

[wxman57]

Well, it appears that the models have backed away from indicating any chance of snow down here next week. Euro, Canadian and GFS are all farther north with the upper low and with higher thickness values more indicative of cold rain than snow. GFS and Euro have surface temps well above freezing (40s-50s) all across TX next Mon-Wed as the upper low passes. Given the airmass in place, that seems more reasonable. I think we'll have to wait for the last week or so of January to have a chance at some much colder air here.

[redneckweather]

Yep, their just isn't any good solid cold air to work with this far south....just like during Christmas Eve.

Just a quick friendly reminder for everyone. We live in southeast Texas.

[wxman57]

There ARE signs of possible building cold air in western Canada in a few weeks. I've been expecting a relatively mild winter down here but punctuated by a few period of very cold weather with the potential for an ice storm across the Deep South. No sign of that in the next few weeks, but late January through February is typically the time for winter weather down here.

[biggerbyte]

LOL! The models are doing the typical flip flop. We are how many days now away from the Monday/Tuesday timeframe, and you guys are sure they will not flip again? Not to say that this forecast most definitely will not come to fruition, but five and six days out... You are for real?

[wxman57]

LOL! The models are doing the typical flip flop. We are how many days now away from the Monday/Tuesday timeframe, and you guys are sure they will not flip again? Not to say that this forecast most definitely will not come to fruition, but five and six days out... You are for real?

I do know that there isn't much cold air in the U.S. or western Canada. Lacking any significant cold air, I believe that Monday's runs indicating snow potential were most likely incorrect. The Euro trended away from the snow threat with yesterday's 12Z run. The GFS was a bit slower to come around, but it has as the event gets closer. Lack of cold air at the surface and aloft remains the problem.

[srainhoutx]

The next chance of precip appears in the medium range toward late next weekend as the Euro continues to advertise a potent Winter Storm taking shape across New Mexico and W and Panhandle regions of Texas and Oklahoma. If the Euro is correct, some areas along and N of I-20 may see chances of wintry mischief as a robust cold core upper low crosses the Lone Star State early next week.

Looking further ahead, guidance continues to suggest an active period beginning mid January with possible chances of the coldest air of the season building in Western Canada and beginning to drop S into the Intermountain West and Great Plains. There are some indications that a full pattern change may well be in the works in the extended as re-inforcing Arctic Air builds in NW and Western Canada. Enjoy the warmth while it lasts as changes may well be in the works...

This was a post I made on January 2nd. I continue to stick by that post...