January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[srainhoutx]

A light freeze is looking likely for tonight as areas N of I-10 appear to be set to see ideal radiational cooling with temps in the upper 20's. Some areas S of I-10 may flirt with near freezing temps for an hour or two. Warmer temps and a dry frontal passage near mid week will offer warm days and cool nights. Fog may return by the weekend.

The next chance of precip appears in the medium range toward late next weekend as the Euro continues to advertise a potent Winter Storm taking shape across New Mexico and W and Panhandle regions of Texas and Oklahoma. If the Euro is correct, some areas along and N of I-20 may see chances of wintry mischief as a robust cold core upper low crosses the Lone Star State early next week.

Looking further ahead, guidance continues to suggest an active period beginning mid January with possible chances of the coldest air of the season building in Western Canada and beginning to drop S into the Intermountain West and Great Plains. There are some indications that a full pattern change may well be in the works in the extended as re-inforcing Arctic Air builds in NW and Western Canada. Enjoy the warmth while it lasts as changes may well be in the works...

[JackCruz]

Very off topic and not related to Texas weather in any way but....

Accuweather, weather channel, myforecast.com etc are forecasting a low for Tallahassee, Florida on Monday at 25 degrees and Tuesday night the low should be around 26 degrees, Wednesday night another possible freeze, Thursday night maybe a few degrees above the freeze mark...... interesting...nothing that interesting around the Houston area besides 32 degrees but I'll take it

Just couple days ago..that cold air mass was aimed at Houston directly...now it's shifted more towards the East ...aimed at Florida.

Keeping in mind that those forecasts are most likely not touched by a meteorologist, both the Euro and GFS forecast only around 38-40 in the Tallahassee area Monday and 30-32 on Tuesday. Nothing to indicate any colder, as there just isn't much cold behind the cold front. Temperatures behind it are barely freezing in Montana!

Low temps have dropped for Tallahassee, Fl. Still going with the 20's...a low of 20 Wednesday morning...maybe some teens.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro continues to advertise an upper air disturbance dropping into the Great Basin and Northern Mexico next weekend, although not as potent as earlier run had suggested. While the GFS is flip flopping around with this feature, the Canadian did switch to a bit 'wetter' scenario for early next week.

[srainhoutx]

Hmmm...while likely a bit too 'cold', by Tuesday morning things could get interesting for parts of Texas...

[srainhoutx]

Looking a bit further out in GFS land, the operational and ensembles are exactly opposite of each other. The OP GFS took away the cold air and suggested a +PNA, +EPO (Slightly) and +AO (Slightly) while the GFS ensembles suggest other wise regarding the mid month time frame with a -PNA, -AO (-3.5 or greater) and -EPO . What we often see during a pattern change regime is guidance struggle and flip flop, so don't get too caught up in any one solution. I am more encouraged after seeing the OP 12Z Euro that in fact a change is in the works for the mid- late January time frame.

[srainhoutx]

12Z OP Euro @ 240 hours suggests a nice strong front dropping S in the Plains...

[srainhoutx]

I'll also add that the 12Z UKMet has joined the Euro solution for the late weekend/early next week time frame suggesting a cyclone crossing Texas. HPC update remains unchanged and credence is given to the #1 Euro and #2 UKMet 500mb solution in scoring...

FINAL...

MADE ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF SPREAD WITH THE HANDLING
OF THE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE
GFS ABANDONING THE IDEA OF AN ORGANIZED CYCLONE THIS RUN...AND THE
UKMET SPINNING UP A DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DAY 6.
THE UPDATE PACKAGE REFLECTED A FLATTER SYSTEM THAN WHAT WAS
DEPICTED BY THE MODEL RUNS THAT HAVE SHOWN THE IMPULSE...SO FEEL
THAT THE UNCERTAINTY IS COVERED THEREIN FOR THE FINAL.

[srainhoutx]

Lake Charles has issued Freeze Warnings/Hard Freeze Warnings for our neighbors in far SE TX/SW LA for tonight into tomorrow morning.

[srainhoutx]

Freezing temps are looking more likely N of I-10 for 6-9 hours. Areas S may see a couple of hours near or just below freezing. Also some changes are beginning to show up for Thursday. Guidance is now suggesting a stronger short wave trough/front with moisture surging N from the Bay of Campeche. Light rain/showers may well develop along the Coastal Counties and Coastal waters with this feature over night Thursday into Friday morning.

[Portastorm]

That 192 Euro looks a lot like how recent snow miracles have occured. Moisture is usually pretty limited under the upper low, so even if it verified, it would be light. Although checking PPV forecast maps enough for some fun, depending on P-type. Over a quarter w/ 850 mb temps near/below freezing.

But, joyfully, even light snow, an inch or two, might cancel school. And work. The day after the BCS Title Game.

Not going to bite yet, but its worth watching.

I'll be curious to see how the 12z Euro ensembles look. The operational run over the weekend had the low further south than most of the ensemble members. Here's hoping for another "snow miracle."

[wxman57]

12Z Euro has temps in western Canada 20-30F above normal next weekend. The 20F+ temps drop all the way south to Nebraska by early next week. Hard to believe in a Texas snow miracle with a warm western Canada and no snow pack in the Plains. Euro ensembles have just as much warm air to our north through 240 hrs. The Euro ensembles do show a LITTLE colder than normal (5-10F) air in western Canada at 324 hrs.

[JackCruz]

http://www.myforecast.com/bin/expanded_ ... tric=false

Last night they showed "flurries" but now it's "snow" ....still A LONNNNNNNNNNNNG way out...but fun to look at

[Ptarmigan]

One happy thing, addressing WxMan's note on Canadian temps and lack of snow cover, I have found that unlike some places, Texas can have rather warm temperatures before a snow event with no change in air mass, if the near surface airmass is dry enough, and clouds minimize insolation. Back as a youngster in New York, 50ºF surface temps one afternoon were never followed by snow the next day without frontal passage, but I have seen frozen precip down hee in Texas w/o a change in airmass, as long as the airmass was sufficiently dry, dews in the single digits or teens, and clouds did their part as well.

I have noticed that too. Some snow events had warmth before it snowed. Examples of them.
February 9-10, 1973
February 17-18, 1973
December 24, 2004
December 10, 2008

The February 14-15, 1895 Snow had period of cold weather prior to the snow. I would not be surprised if it was a blizzard and thundersnow event.

[biggerbyte]

I remember one time in the 70s I was visiting family in Oklahoma. It was a warm/hot sunny day. The news said there was a very strong cold front going to be blasting through overnight. It came through alright. There was a line of severe storms that moved through with the front. We went from bad storms during the night, to knee deep snow, post frontal passage. It was amazing. I had broken my leg as a child during the Houston snow of the early 70s, which prevented any enjoyment. Needless to say, the big Oklahoma snow was a dream come true.

[srainhoutx]

Some very interesting developments via the 00Z Operational suite tonight. The GFS now has the upper low, but is very progressive and brings it through on Saturday and dry with a secondary stronger short wave passing nex Monday night. The Canadian is a bit progressive and keeps the moisture N of SE TX, but drips temps below freezing on next Monday. The Euro/UKMet suggests a potent upper low will drop through the Southern Rockies into Central/SE TX and do have some moisture to work with as the upper low passes next Monday into Tuesday.

The Euro and Canadian in the longer range near the 13th drop a strong Arctic boundary into Texas while the GFS holds the very chilly air just to the N in Kansas as a potent Winter Storm develops in the longer range. The GFS would keep the coldest air to the N and cold builds in NW Canada and the Intermountain West through the end of the period.

[Andrew]

Yea the 00z Euro suggests a cold pocket with the low that ejects east across Southeast Texas and moisture levels throughout 850mb and 700mb would suggest some possible precipitation. While that could create some interesting results I am really looking ahead to the long range. That is where things could really get going. It is interesting how Joe Bastardi stated the similarities of this upcoming POTENTIAL cold blast compared to some of the past. With heights expecting to rise in west Canada/ Alaska any cold air present up there could be sent down south. Now all we would need is a blocking pattern to the east. Probably some of the most interesting weather for winter will occur midway in January if the models are onto something.

[srainhoutx]

Yea the 00z Euro suggests a cold pocket with the low that ejects east across Southeast Texas and moisture levels throughout 850mb and 700mb would suggest some possible precipitation. While that could create some interesting results I am really looking ahead to the long range. That is where things could really get going. It is interesting how Joe Bastardi stated the similarities of this upcoming POTENTIAL cold blast compared to some of the past. With heights expecting to rise in west Canada/ Alaska any cold air present up there could be sent down south. Now all we would need is a blocking pattern to the east. Probably some of the most interesting weather for winter will occur midway in January if the models are onto something.

Andrew, the GFS ensembles are singing a much different tune. The ensemble member would have us in the cold by 240 hours as the Euro/Canadian suggest and very cold conditions continues to build in NW Canada...

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance has shifted a bit further W with the short wave trough for Thursday which would tend to increase light rain chances for Coastal Texas/Louisiana for late week. The HPC has noted this shift and has mentioned some possible increase in precip chances as moisture surges N from the Bay of Campeche.

[srainhoutx]

Interestingly the 06Z GFS has flipped to a slower, deeper cut off solution shown by the 00Z Euro for late weekend/early next week.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Cal was a terrible Football team as were the Horns. What happened to the Aggies this year? Every time those guys are supposed to be good, they crap the bed.

As a LSU fan, I will tell you that the Aggies will surpass the Horns in due time with the SEC branding and schedule, and this is coming from someone who has a hatred for them stemming from the early 90s. Texas isn't doing anything anytime soon.

So to use your college football references, I'll have to pass, but the NFL one was good. Therefore I give this snow miracle a 50% chance....


sorry for the tangent. I'm a huge CFB fan.