New Year's Eve Weather

[srainhoutx]

NAM through 54 suggests less moisture. Some 00Z land based data (ballon data) was ingested, but some were not, fwiw...

[ticka1]

[Kludge]

Precip will be long gone on Christmas Day once the air gets cold enough. Nothing on the horizon. Don't expect anything this year.

Folklore has it that the Grinch did not father any children. I think we've found the offspring that even he doesn't claim.

[Andrew]

Precip will be long gone on Christmas Day once the air gets cold enough. Nothing on the horizon. Don't expect anything this year.

Folklore has it that the Grinch did not father any children. I think we've found the offspring that even he doesn't claim.

[biggerbyte]

Now that's funny.. What were some of the terms people use? Was it thrill kill and kill joy.

Anyway!!! Friday and Sarurday are pretty predictable at this point. Anything beyond that is pure speculation. There is always hope for changes, long range, as we are about to see with the upcoming rainfall potentials. There is no reason, at this point, to completely rule out some sort of winter fun at some point before the season ends. Three days out from today.. Some rain and colder temps.

[sleetstorm]

How good will the rain mitigate the drought here in southeast Texas?

[srainhoutx]

Some good news is we are going to get some badly needed rain. 1/2 to 1 inch amounts aren't too shabby after a month + of nothing. More good news is it appears more will fall next week as well. A Coastal Low/trough appears to form in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame via guidance with additional near 1 inch amounts to end out December and 2010. We have not seen a cloudy/damp/cool forecast in a long time, so that will be a welcome change in our drought parched area.

[wxman57]

Now that's funny.. What were some of the terms people use? Was it thrill kill and kill joy.

Anyway!!! Friday and Sarurday are pretty predictable at this point. Anything beyond that is pure speculation. There is always hope for changes, long range, as we are about to see with the upcoming rainfall potentials. There is no reason, at this point, to completely rule out some sort of winter fun at some point before the season ends. Three days out from today.. Some rain and colder temps.

Perhaps - "realist"?

[srainhoutx]

I'll take it...

[Mr. T]

That is a nice coastal low setup for next wednesday on the 12z GFS...

[TexasMetBlake]

The NWS out of Mobile now has a 50% chance of snow for northern Florida panhandle on CHRISTMAS NIGHT. What are the chances....

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... mx=1&zmy=1

[wxman57]

The NWS out of Mobile now has a 50% chance of snow for northern Florida panhandle on CHRISTMAS NIGHT. What are the chances....

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... mx=1&zmy=1

I don't buy it. Models indicate no moisture available by the time the airmass aloft cools down. As for us tomorrow evening, latest GFS drops rainfall amounts down to .25 to .50 inch. With the rather dry air overhead now, we may not get much rain when the front passes tomorrow night.

[Mr. T]

The NWS out of Mobile now has a 50% chance of snow for northern Florida panhandle on CHRISTMAS NIGHT. What are the chances....

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... mx=1&zmy=1

meh on that

this forecast was issued before the big model shifts today with this East Coast system. No snow for Florida...

[wxman57]

They updated the forecast to rain now.

[Kludge]

Now that's funny.. What were some of the terms people use? Was it thrill kill and kill joy.

Anyway!!! Friday and Sarurday are pretty predictable at this point. Anything beyond that is pure speculation. There is always hope for changes, long range, as we are about to see with the upcoming rainfall potentials. There is no reason, at this point, to completely rule out some sort of winter fun at some point before the season ends. Three days out from today.. Some rain and colder temps.

Perhaps - "realist"?

[biggerbyte]

LOL

I guess I am a long range optimist. Do you have a graphic for me???

Merry Christmas, everybody.

[Ptarmigan]

I like the cut of the NAM's jib.

Nothing says traditional Christmas like midnight Mass and thunderstorms.

The last time we had thunderstorms in the early morning hours of Christmas Eve was in 2002. It was a severe thunderstorm. Very rare to see thunderstorms on Christmas Eve. However, there is a better chance of seeing one than snow.

[sleetstorm]

What is that orange and pink colored precipitation on the Texas Panhandle Radar, freezing rain and sleet?

[srainhoutx]

What a great sight to see this morning. Rain and elevated storms across the Lone Star State. Man, has it been a long time since we've seen such a sight...





DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 AM CST FRI DEC 24 2010

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NM/WEST TX WILL TRACK
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS TX TODAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS OK/TX AND
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DESPITE STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TODAY. CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER WEST-CENTRAL
TX WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE COAST. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND THE MIDDLE TX GULF COAST
REGION. HOWEVER...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SEVERE THREAT DOES
NOT WARRANT PROBABILITIES.

..HART/SMITH.. 12/24/2010

[weatherguy425]

Interesting read regarding New Year's time frame...

ECMWF/CANADIAN STILL SHOW A MID LEVEL
TROF/SHORTWAVE DROPPING S TOWARD BAJA ON MON THEN TOWARD S TX ON
WED PROVIDING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP. GFS NO LONGER SHOWS AS
DISTINCT OF A FEATURE LIKE IT HAS IN THE PAST...BUT DOES SHOW SOME
IMPULSES RIDING THE SW FLOW ALOFT DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
LARGE BROAD TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE COUNTRY
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AND WILL EVENTUALLY SEND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THIS WAY NEXT WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS SENDS SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON INTO THE REGION...BUT IT`S JUST ONE RUN
AND THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT FAR OUT...