New Year's Eve Weather

[redneckweather]

Well it looks like we are getting close enough to take some stabs on what the models are showing around Christmas Eve/Day. So is it going to be flip flop weather, heavy coats and snowy or somewhere inbetween?

[TexasMetBlake]

I was just getting ready to start this topic!

Well, Christmas, at least right now, is looking cool with a cold front passing through on the night of the 23rd. Here's the GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml

[wxman57]

Plotted a meteogram of 2m temps from the 6z GFS. Looks like lows in the mid 30s and highs near 60. Of course, given the typical long-range error in the GFS, I'd add an error range in there of +/= 25 degrees from 384 hrs out.

We need to wait until the 15th of December before the Euro and Canadian extend out to Christmas.

[weatherguy425]

Well the Euro does show an interesting ULL setup around the 17th

INTERESTINGLY GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGED QUITE A
BIT WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES LATE NEXT WEEK. ECMWF INDICATE A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER REGION FRIDAY.

[srainhoutx]

Well the Euro does show an interesting ULL setup around the 17th

INTERESTINGLY GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGED QUITE A
BIT WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES LATE NEXT WEEK. ECMWF INDICATE A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER REGION FRIDAY.

Use with extreme caution...

[redneckweather]

Now THAT would be very nice srain.......so make it happen!

[Ptarmigan]

Past Christmas Day weather records.

Houston 1921-1968

Code: Select all

Year	High	Low	Average	Rainfall
1921	53	31	42	0
1922	75	51	63	0
1923	59	48	53.5	0
1924	37	27	32	0
1925	59	45	52	T
1926	48	33	40.5	0.28
1927	56	43	49.5	0.01
1928	58	43	50.5	0
1929	69	41	55	0
1930	58	46	52	1.31
1931	70	53	61.5	0
1932	68	50	59	0
1933	74	59	66.5	0
1934	78	64	71	T
1935	57	43	50	T
1936	72	58	65	0
1937	75	61	68	0
1938	51	46	48.5	1.42
1939	45	41	43	1.81
1940	70	54	62	0.48
1941	67	52	59.5	0.46
1942	79	67	73	0
1943	38	35	36.5	0.01
1944	77	65	71	0.29
1945	62	46	54	0
1946	73	50	61.5	0
1947	51	34	42.5	0
1948	64	41	52.5	0
1949	65	46	55.5	T
1950	74	53	63.5	0
1951	75	61	68	0.13
1952	54	42	48	0
1953	55	33	44	0
1954	70	57	63.5	T
1955	79	63	71	0
1956	61	41	51	0
1957	67	53	60	0.32
1958	54	42	48	0.05
1959	63	54	58.5	T
1960	65	47	56	0
1961	63	42	52.5	0
1962	57	48	52.5	0.04
1963	70	45	57.5	0
1964	82	59	70.5	0
1965	57	40	48.5	0
1966	48	40	44	0.13
1967	64	48	56	0
1968	66	48	57	0

Bush Intercontinental Airport 1969-2009

Code: Select all

Year	High	Low	Average	Rainfall
1969	69	41	55	0
1970	65	39	52	0
1971	73	59	66	0
1972	66	34	50	0
1973	51	45	48	T
1974	51	43	47	0.12
1975	46	35	40.5	T
1976	61	45	53	0.59
1977	59	39	49	0
1978	66	30	48	0
1979	70	33	51.5	0
1980	50	30	40	0
1981	56	33	44.5	0
1982	74	51	62.5	1.64
1983	28	11	19.5	0
1984	64	49	56.5	0.01
1985	45	29	37	0
1986	68	41	54.5	0
1987	78	51	64.5	0.04
1988	65	50	57.5	T
1989	61	20	40.5	0
1990	44	26	35	0
1991	56	37	46.5	0
1992	62	51	56.5	T
1993	64	33	48.5	0
1994	64	34	49	0
1995	60	42	51	0
1996	59	32	45.5	0
1997	59	38	48.5	0
1998	41	31	36	0
1999	58	36	47	0
2000	57	48	52.5	T
2001	54	33	43.5	0
2002	50	32	41	0
2003	61	43	52	T
2004	49	32	40.5	0
2005	69	44	56.5	0
2006	53	39	46	0.01
2007	62	33	47.5	0
2008	74	60	67	0
2009	49	32	40.5	0

Overall 1921-2009

Temperature
Highs
Average High
61.2

Median High
62

Standard Deviation
10.6

Lows
Average Low
43.3

Median Low
43

Standard Deviation
10.6

Lowest Low
11°F 1983

Highest Low
67°F 1942

Highest High
82°F 1964

Lowest High
28°F 1983


Rainfall
Average Rainfall
0.12

Median
0

Standard Deviation
0.36

Wettest
1.81 1939


Houston WB 1921-1968

Temperature
Highs
Average High
63.2

Median High
64

Standard Deviation
10.7

Lows
Average Low
47.7

Median Low
46.5

Standard Deviation
9.4

Lowest Low
27°F 1924

Highest Low
67°F 1942

Highest High
82°F 1964

Lowest High
37°F 1924


Rainfall
Average Rainfall
0.16

Median
0

Standard Deviation
0.4

Wettest
1.81 1939


Bush Intercontinental Airport 1969-2009

Temperature
Highs
Average High
58.8

Median High
60

Standard Deviation
10.2

Lows
Average Low
38.2

Median Low
37

Standard Deviation
9.7

Lowest Low
11°F 1982

Highest Low
60°F 2008

Highest High
78°F 1987

Lowest High
28°F 1983


Rainfall
Average Rainfall
0.07

Median
0

Standard Deviation
0.29

Wettest
1.64 1982

[TexasMetBlake]

Christmas is looking cold...at least when looking at the 18z. It seems that the gfs has been showing a deep trough deepening through the central plains with a 1042 high dropping down into Montana. The last few runs including 00z and 6z (except 12z) have been pretty similar showing a rather deep trough. Now if we can just get a coastal low...

Christmas Eve:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _348.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _360.shtml

Christmas Day:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _372.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml

[srainhoutx]

Christmas is looking cold...at least when looking at the 18z. It seems that the gfs has been showing a deep trough deepening through the central plains with a 1042 high dropping down into Montana. The last few runs have been pretty similar showing a rather deep trough. Now if we can just get a coastal low...

+PNA Ridge popping up as well.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro is MUCH weaker with the front around the 18th-19th and the low center is way up north. Even the Euro is flipping all over the place in the past few runs. I'd be VERY cautious making a forecast beyond the next 2-3 days using any model. That said, the 12Z GFS forecasts a low in the upper 30s on Christmas. Probably with a high in the 50s. Again, take those temps as being accurate to within about 20 degrees either way this far out. I see no indication of any chance of freezing/frozen precip prior to Christmas. Just pretty much weather as we've experienced for the past month. Cool and dry.

[srainhoutx]

12Z Euro is MUCH weaker with the front around the 18th-19th and the low center is way up north. Even the Euro is flipping all over the place in the past few runs. I'd be VERY cautious making a forecast beyond the next 2-3 days using any model. That said, the 12Z GFS forecasts a low in the upper 30s on Christmas. Probably with a high in the 50s. Again, take those temps as being accurate to within about 20 degrees either way this far out. I see no indication of any chance of freezing/frozen precip prior to Christmas. Just pretty much weather as we've experienced for the past month. Cool and dry.

Oh, I see. So we could see lows in the teens to highs in the 70's.

[tireman4]

Now that is a weather forecast......

[Baseballdude2915]

00z GFS has the cold needed for winter fun at Christmas, but not the moisture.

Could this be a repeat of 2004? A few wacky runs of snowfall end up proving true 15 days later?

Twice in our lifetime, probably not. Time will tell.

[Kludge]

Well it looks like we are getting close enough to take some stabs on what the models are showing around Christmas Eve/Day. So is it going to be flip flop weather, heavy coats and snowy or somewhere inbetween?

Thanks for starting this topic, redneck. We can talk about upcoming SE Texas weather here. The topic I was following previously somehow became "east coast freeze".

[wxman57]

12Z GFS forecasts a low in the upper 40s and a high in the low-mid 60s on Christmas day with clouds and onshore flow. No freezing temps indicated between the 18th and 26th. Again, the standard GFS long-range caveat of the temperature error being +/- about 20 degrees.

[srainhoutx]

Well it looks like we are getting close enough to take some stabs on what the models are showing around Christmas Eve/Day. So is it going to be flip flop weather, heavy coats and snowy or somewhere inbetween?

Thanks for starting this topic, redneck. We can talk about upcoming SE Texas weather here. The topic I was following previously somehow became "east coast freeze".

It seems our December Topic was hijacked, but that's OK. Some may disagree, but there are signals or 'hints' to a colder pattern setting up in our area near Christmas, +/- several days. We have seen the GFS occasionally spit out some solutions in the longer range suggesting this. What is catching my eye is the tanking AO, NAO and some hints of the PNA cooperating in the Pacific. The fly in the ointment is the Gulf of Alaska Low that has been present all season. If that feature can shift W, the door could open for some mighty cold air to spill S along the front range of the Rockies and not pass us in a glancing fashion as we have seen of late. Just something to watch and see if it pans out.

AO near record negative levels (Blocking pattern)...



NAO remaining negative to near neutral...



PNA rising from negative to slightly positive (suggests ridging building in the NE Pacific)...



00ZGFS 12/11/2010 Long Range...(Pacific View(500mb) CONUS View (850mb))

[Ptarmigan]

Here is a scatter plots I made for AO, NAO, and PNA.

AO and Rainfall

Not much of a corrleation between AO and rain.

AO and Temperature

There is a correlation between AO and temperature. The more negative AO is, the cooler it is.

NAO and Rainfall

Not much of a corrleation between AO and rain.

NAO and Temperature

There is a correlation between NAO and temperature. The more negative NAO is, the cooler it is.

PNA and Rainfall

Some correlation with PNA and rain, which is a positive correlation.

PNA and Temperature

The more positive PNA is, the cooler it is.

[wxman57]

I'm seeing such tremendous model fluctuations from run to run that it's impossible to have much confidence in the weather beyond the next 3-4 days.

[srainhoutx]

I'm seeing such tremendous model fluctuations from run to run that it's impossible to have much confidence in the weather beyond the next 3-4 days.

I have to agree. The unusually high heights seen across Canada in response to the -AO are wreaking havoc on the guidance. The HPC is siding with the Euro for now in the medium range toward next weekend.





Day ten Euro...

[txsnowmaker]

Anything of interest with the latest Euro run in either the medium or long term?