New Year's Eve Weather

[tireman4]

I'm seeing such tremendous model fluctuations from run to run that it's impossible to have much confidence in the weather beyond the next 3-4 days.
\
For you to admit that is saying such. Wow...

[TexasMetBlake]

Well the GFS, more so than not, has shown a very deep trough over Texas. We'll just have to wait and see. From what I can tell, Christmas, as of 12z, looks cold but dry.

[wxman57]

Well the GFS, more so than not, has shown a very deep trough over Texas. We'll just have to wait and see. From what I can tell, Christmas, as of 12z, looks cold but dry.

Models are predicting various levels of cool/cold and dry for Christmas. Just more of the same.

[txsnowmaker]

Well the GFS, more so than not, has shown a very deep trough over Texas. We'll just have to wait and see. From what I can tell, Christmas, as of 12z, looks cold but dry.

Models are predicting various levels of cool/cold and dry for Christmas. Just more of the same.

Thank you both for the update on the latest. Will keep my fingers crossed for both the cold and perhaps a shortwave as well.

[helloitsb]

This is the 18z for today,

not sure if I did the times right but it is looking pretty cold for Christmas Eve and Christmas (even though this is so far out and you can't put confidence in it)

[Ptarmigan]

I used this link to see what Christmas will be like.
http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php

I know it is days from now, but wanted to see. Looks like it is going to be cold, even at the upper part of the atmosphere and precipitation.

[wxman57]

This is the 18z for today,

not sure if I did the times right but it is looking pretty cold for Christmas Eve and Christmas (even though this is so far out and you can't put confidence in it)

http://i56.tinypic.com/ic4doy.png

Not quite, you forgot to change the start time on the "Converted Data" tab to 12/20/2010 12:00:00 PM, and you forgot to change the chart title time to 12PM CST for the 18Z model run. I made a corrected version below. Note that when plotting this extended GFS, the temperatures are only plotted at 12AM and 12PM, so you're not seeing the highs/lows. This makes that 27 degree temp at 12am on the 26th more impressive. Of course, I have little confidence the 18Z run will verify, as the next GFS run will probably show something completely different.

[helloitsb]

This is the 18z for today,

not sure if I did the times right but it is looking pretty cold for Christmas Eve and Christmas (even though this is so far out and you can't put confidence in it)

http://i56.tinypic.com/ic4doy.png

Not quite, you forgot to change the start time on the "Converted Data" tab to 12/20/2010 12:00:00 PM, and you forgot to change the chart title time to 12PM CST for the 18Z model run. I made a corrected version below. Note that when plotting this extended GFS, the temperatures are only plotted at 12AM and 12PM, so you're not seeing the highs/lows. This makes that 27 degree temp at 12am on the 26th more impressive. Of course, I have little confidence the 18Z run will verify, as the next GFS run will probably show something completely different.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/dwh.gif

Thank you I always mess up on times

I have noticed that the other GFS runs are warmer but the 18 has been consistent on the cold weather so who knows it could end up being 80 with the model inconsistency that has been going on so far

[wxman57]

As I suspected, the 00Z and 06Z GFS runs were much warmer. Neither indicates any freezing temps through the 28th. Every run is different. I'll be more confident about the weather on Christmas by about the 22nd.

[snowman65]

I would like for all the models at this point to show much warmer temps for Christmas because I've noticed that by the time it actually gets here, most of the the time is completely opposite......this way it will be COLD for Xmas

[wxman57]

GFS vs. Euro 500mb flow for the 23rd. Big storm either coast. High pressure and cool/dry weather here going into Christmas weekend:

[srainhoutx]

Anyone notice the pattern change on suggested by the GFS after Christmas?

[harpman]

Can you elaborate, srain?

[TexasMetBlake]

Just looks like persistent troughiness over the country. Looks to keep us cool/cold but nothing that is record breaking.

[srainhoutx]

Can you elaborate, srain?

Actually is appears that the NAO is heading toward a positive as well as the PNA. The GFS is 'sniffing' this in the long range. That would suggest a more favorable Pacific and troughiness in the West. Still a long way out, but any change from the dry NW flow would be welcome.

Dodge City caught it as well...snip...

INTERESTING
ENOUGH, THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THE NAO INDEX BECOMES LESS NEGATIVE
TOWARDS CHRISTMAS WITH THE PNA INDEX BECOMING LESS NEGATIVE. ALTHOUGH
SINCE OCTOBER THESE INDICES HAVE GONE UP ONLY TO BECOME NEGATIVE AGAIN.
THIS CHANGE WOULD FAVOR A PATTERN OF A TROUGH OUT WEST AND RIDGING DOWNSTREAM.

[sleetstorm]

What does the weather look like for now on Christmas Eve and Day, srainhoutx? Cool or icy cold and will there be any precipitation?

[srainhoutx]

What does the weather look like for now on Christmas Eve and Day, srainhoutx? Cool or icy cold and will there be any precipitation?

The 12Z GFS suggests some possible showers and rather warm to start Christmas Eve, with a strong front to pass later in the day making for a chilly Christmas Day as of now.

[Portastorm]

... and the 12z GFS also suggests the first real potential at wintry weather for some parts of Texas this season ... namely after Christmas. Given how sorry this winter has been ... I guess it's come down to this, hoping on the GFS past 300 hours!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[srainhoutx]

... and the 12z GFS also suggests the first real potential at wintry weather for some parts of Texas this season ... namely after Christmas. Given how sorry this winter has been ... I guess it's come down to this, hoping on the GFS past 300 hours!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

Come on Portastorm. I've been beating the pattern change drum for a while now.

[Portastorm]

Indeed you have, sir ... indeed you have.

Now if we can just get that darn PNA to get close to neutral. See what you can do about that, srain!