June 2026

[Cpv17]

Maybe, maybe not, if the low hugs the coast, that still puts all of se texas on the dirty side of the low, way too close of a call, im not comfortable enough to say se texas wont have any big problems

I’m not that concerned unless the track goes further west. With the track it’s expected to take, I don’t see how anyone in our area would get substantial totals. Unless it’s just lopsided and has a lot of convection on the NW side of the circulation.

[Rip76]

Just got to Waxahachie. Completely dumped on me on 287. Heavy, heavy rain.

[Stratton20]

Hurricane models are in, spread between matagorda bay as landfall, up to sargent tx ( where beryl came in ), those tracks would still put se texas and the metro on the dirty side

[davidiowx]

I think Euro is nailing the path.

Ummmmm...ouch on the bullseye right over the Bayou City.

Well if anything, the Euro had close to yearly avg rainfall totals in the CWA 2-3 days before Harvey made landfall down in Rockport. It was still showing 30”+ when Harvey was a day away from landfall. Most scoffed at it, and rightfully so, considering it seemed crazy like the CMC. However, the consistency continued and we all know what happened.

This ain’t that though. However, just goes to show you can’t ever discount it. Core rains are intense. If this somehow ends up with a core and has weak steering, someone will get a lot of rain. It could be onshore, or offshore. Lots to watch.

[Ptarmigan]

I think Euro is nailing the path.

Ummmmm...ouch on the bullseye right over the Bayou City.

Well if anything, the Euro had close to yearly avg rainfall totals in the CWA 2-3 days before Harvey made landfall down in Rockport. It was still showing 30”+ when Harvey was a day away from landfall. Most scoffed at it, and rightfully so, considering it seemed crazy like the CMC. However, the consistency continued and we all know what happened.

This ain’t that though. However, just goes to show you can’t ever discount it. Core rains are intense. If this somehow ends up with a core and has weak steering, someone will get a lot of rain. It could be onshore, or offshore. Lots to watch.

Houston has dealt with many core rains. Core rains are difficult to forecast.

[Stratton20]

yup, we are in the range where mesocale models are way more valuable than global models , if we do get a core rain event in houston, those models will do a far better job at seeing that over the globals

[Brazoriatx979]

Convection is really popping off this morning..this thing may a chance to reach something before it hit land again. Watches abd warnings are probably going to be hoisted today

[tireman4]

From Jeff Lindner on Facebook

6-16-26 530am

Increased chances for a short live weak tropical storm along the mid and upper TX coast mid week

Tropical storm watches or warnings may be required today for all or portions of the mid and upper TX coast

Potential for very heavy rainfall and flash flooding


Radar images this morning show a broad area of low pressure over deep south Texas with a weak frontal boundary located over the northern portions of SE TX. Active convection is forming over the Gulf waters into the local coastal counties. NHC has increased the potential for a weak short lived tropical system to 60% although guidance support is widely varying on solutions and track due to the weak and broad structure of the system. WPC is maintaining the moderate risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding today and Wednesday.

Today:
High resolution guidance insists that a band of thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall will develop near the coast and spread somewhat inland through the midday hours. Radar is starting to show this along the coastal beaches and this is likely the start of this heavier rainfall threat for the morning into the midday hours. How far inland this activity spreads remain in question, but areas south of I-10 look to have the best chances for heavy rainfall and flash flooding through the morning hours.

Guidance shows a general decreasing trend in activity into the mid to late afternoon hours similar to Monday.

Wednesday-Thursday:
Tropical system of some sort looks to evolve between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Bay and move ENE/NE either across the area or along/offshore…uncertainty is high with respective track given the poorly organized nature of the system. However the track remains important as a track near the coast or offshore would focus the heavier rainfall on Wed-Thurs in that region while a track further inland would bring the threat for heavy rainfall into at least the I-10 corridor. Leaning more toward the coastal/offshore track, but not overly confident.

Rainfall:
Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches will be possible mainly along and south of I-10 with isolated totals of 6-10 inches through early Wednesday. Hourly rainfall rates of 2-5 inches will remain likely with the heavier storms and this will lead to rapid onset flash flooding. North of I-10 rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are most likely through today.

Hydro:
Grounds are saturated from recent rainfall and additional rainfall will convert to run-off quickly. Rises on area rivers from recent rains are in progress and additional rainfall over the next 48 hours will potentially bring some of these watersheds to flood stage by late week. Creeks and bayous across Harris County are doing good this morning, but there remains some concern that intense rainfall rates will result in significant and rapid rises.

Tides:
Coastal tides will begin to increase today into Wednesday as the coastal tropical system moves into the area. Current forecasts keep water levels around 1-2 feet above normal (3-4 feet above MLLW or the barnacle level). Some minor coastal flooding remains possible at times of high tide into Wednesday.

Winds:
Winds will increase across the coastal waters and coastal counties today into Wednesday with widespread 20-30mph and gusts into the 40mph range along with building seas. Marine conditions will become hazardous as the coastal tropical system moves across the region.

[Brazoriatx979]

Haven't received much in the way of heavy rainfall from this event yet here in Southern brazoria county

[tireman4]

294
FXUS64 KHGX 161136
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
636 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Life-threatening flooding remains possible through Wednesday. An
additional 4-10" is possible. Rainfall rates have exceeded 2-5"
per hour in some locations.

- Trough/Low may drift into the northwest Gulf today. 60% chance
of tropical development. Moderate to strong winds could develop
over the coastal waters. Cannot rule out gusts possibly to Gale.
Tropical funnels and waterspouts will also be possible along
the coastline.

- Moderate to high risk of rip currents each day. Elevated tides
may lead to minor coastal flooding, especially on
Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Life-threateing Flash Flooding remains possible across portions of
SE Texas over the next few days. Currently seeing a short lull in
rainfall early today, but anticipate activity to pick back up
heading into the daytime. SE Texas remains engulfed within a deep
tropical airmass, featuring some of the highest TPWs on recored for
this time of the year, around 2.1-2.6 inches. Forecast soundings are
still primed with a classic heavy rainfall signature from the deep
saturation, thin parcel traces showing modest instability, and a
deep warm cloud layer over 16,000ft. Corfidi upshear wind vectors
drop to around 10 knots early this morning, with downshear values
falling to 10-20 knots during portions of the late morning and early
afternoon. Both of which seem to hover around 10-25 knots in the
evening into Wednesday. A frontal boundary remains stalled out over
the region, with a front-right entrance region of a longwave trough
overtop the area as well. We should get an injection of drier air
aloft above 700mb this evening, pushing midlevel RH to 60-70% in the
Houston area by Wednesday. Drier conditions to the north should
result in some mitigation of the flooding risk over those areas,
though coastal bound locations, including the Houston area, will
remain shrouded within a potent tropical airmass.

Another layer of complexity and uncertainty with this forecast comes
from a trough of low pressure, currently situated over the eastern
Texas/Mexico boarder. This system is expected to push
north/northeast, potentially emerging over the the northwest
Gulf/Texas coastal today/early Wednesday. Once over the Gulf waters,
this low could deepen and potentially organize into a tropical
storm. NHC now gives this system a 60% chance of tropical
development within the next 48 hours. Model guidance still has a
very mixed handle on this low, with wide variations in timing. Even
if this low doesn`t develop into a tropical storm, it will still
amply heavy rainfall across the Texas coastline.

WPC maintains a Moderate (level 3/4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall over
the Texas coastline through early Thursday morning. An additional 4-
10 inches of rainfall are possible through early Thursday morning.
Rainfall rates of 2-5"/hr are expected, though these rates could be
even higher in spots, as observed on Monday. Life-threating flash
flooding will likely occur. Urban and low lying areas will be
especially at risk as well. Rises in rivers, creeks and streams will
result in minor river flooding at least. Risk of runoff continues to
grow as additional rounds of rainfall saturate soils. Once again,
Moderate Rainfall Risks are seldom issued, only when there is
strong confidence that significant, life-threatening flash flooding
could occur. Around 1 out of 5 fatalities from flooding occur on a
Moderate risk days. A Flood Watch remains in effect for all of SE
Texas until Thursday morning. Make sure to have multiple ways of
receiving warnings and remain weather aware! Do not attempt to drive
through flooded roadways. TURN AROUND, DONT DROWN!

In addition to rainfall, we will also have to watch out for many
other tropical-related hazards with this low pressure. Strong winds
will be possible as this system moves across the region. However,
there is still a wide amount of spread between models, with winds
highly contingent on the strength of the low and whether tropical
development occurs or not. Right now, we`re anticipating the
strongest winds to occur along the coast, especially over the bays
and Gulf waters. These winds could reach 20-30 knots with gusts to
Gale. Timing the onset of these winds is extremely difficult given
the large timing differences, though model guidance shows the most
intense winds occuring generally between 4AM to 4PM on Wednesday.

With the tropical airmass and the potential for tropical
development, SPC also has included a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) SWO
over portions of the SE Texas coast through early Thursday morning.
Tropical funnels and waterspouts could develop over the waters...
could potentially see some of this activity move over land too
(contingent on tropical development of course).

Strong currents are expected, with minor coastal flooding possible
on Wednesday and Thursday and high tide. A moderate to high risk of
rip currents is expected for Gulf-facing beaches as well.

The heavy rainfall threat should decline on Thursday, though a
Slight (level 2/4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall will still be in place
for lingering rains as the system departs eastward. This risk will
diminish into Friday with rain chances decreasing into the weekend
as ridging builds over the Gulf.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage this morning,
with MVFR to IFR cigs accompanying this activity. The most likely
timeframe from storms across all TAF sites is this morning, with a
lull in activity expected after 19Z. Cigs will also lift during
this lull, with VFR conditions returning during the afternoon and
early evening. Another round of storms will develop overnight,
along with a low cig (~2500`) deck after 06Z. Forecast confidence
is low and amendments to the TAF are likely as timing of the
rounds of storms becomes clearer.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Additional rounds of widespread showers/storms are expected through
the later half of the work week. Light to occasionally moderate
onshore winds and seas of 3 to 6 feet are expected to increase
tonight into Wednesday as a low moves into the northwestern Gulf.
Moderate to strong onshore winds may develop as this system tracks
through the waters. While there is a large difference in timing
between models, the most intense winds are generally anticipated to
occur some time between 4AM to 4PM on Wednesday. Intensity is
contingent on tropical development, though winds around 20-30 knots
with gusts to Gale will be possible. Seas could reach 7-10 feet,
potentially higher at times. Tropical funnels and waterspouts could
develop as well. Strong currents are expected. Minor coastal
flooding is possible on Wednesday and Thursday around high tide. A
moderate to high risk of rip currents is expected for Gulf-facing
beaches as well.

Sustained winds should drop under 25 knots around Thursday
afternoon, though seas will remain slightly elevated, only dropping
below 6 ft by around Friday afternoon/evening.

03

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A trough of low pressure currently over the eastern Texas/Mexico
boarder is expected to drift north-northeastward throughout today.
Spaghetti plots for Invest 90L all support this motion, with the
system favored to move into northwestern Gulf along the Texas coast
today. Once over the waters, this low could deepen and potentially
organize into a tropical storm. Convection within this low has
flared up overnight, showing more promising signs of TC development.
With this in mind, NHC now gives this system a 60% chance of
tropical development within the next 48 hours. Regardless of
tropical development, heavy rainfall is expected and dangerous
marine conditions are possible. Rainfall rates are expected to be
around 2-5"/hr, possibly higher, especially along the coast.
Moderate to strong winds could develop across the waters and bays
early Wednesday with gusts to gale. Tropical funnels and waterspouts
could spin up at times throughout Wednesday. Minor coastal flooding
could occur as well.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 73 88 76 / 50 10 20 0
Houston (IAH) 82 75 88 77 / 90 40 60 40
Galveston (GLS) 85 80 88 83 / 100 80 70 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...JTC
MARINE...03

[tireman4]

Josh Morgerman

[tireman4]

Jeff Lindner on Facebook

[Brazoriatx979]

Special Message from NHC Tue, 16 Jun 2026 14:11:51 +0000

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One (formerly AL90) located over southern Texas, at 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC).

[Cpv17]

Haven't received much in the way of heavy rainfall from this event yet here in Southern brazoria county

It won’t be much of an issue for us. Like I’ve been saying, east of here is going to get hit much harder.

[Nuby33]

I'm getting hammered at 242 and I-45

[tireman4]

Let me add this. Stalled fronts in the Summer interacting with moist tropical air can cause serious flooding issues no matter where you are. Tropical systems can be temperamental as well. That being said, do not let your guard down until said systems and weather makers have moved on or cleared up.

[Brazoriatx979]

sargent,tx to morgan city LA

[jasons2k]

Absolutely torrential downpours in The Woodlands. It sounds like a water cannon blasting on the breezeway at work.

[Nuby33]

I just got 3 inches in an hour

[jasons2k]

Let me add this. Stalled fronts in the Summer interacting with moist tropical air can cause serious flooding issues no matter where you are. Tropical systems can be temperamental as well. That being said, do not let your guard down until said systems and weather makers have moved on or cleared up.

This is becoming a potentially very dangerous setup. Convergence band setting up on the NE quadrant of the cyclone right over metro Houston…