June 2026

[Cpv17]

Maybe, maybe not, if the low hugs the coast, that still puts all of se texas on the dirty side of the low, way too close of a call, im not comfortable enough to say se texas wont have any big problems

I’m not that concerned unless the track goes further west. With the track it’s expected to take, I don’t see how anyone in our area would get substantial totals. Unless it’s just lopsided and has a lot of convection on the NW side of the circulation.

[Rip76]

Just got to Waxahachie. Completely dumped on me on 287. Heavy, heavy rain.

[Stratton20]

Hurricane models are in, spread between matagorda bay as landfall, up to sargent tx ( where beryl came in ), those tracks would still put se texas and the metro on the dirty side

[davidiowx]

I think Euro is nailing the path.

Ummmmm...ouch on the bullseye right over the Bayou City.

Well if anything, the Euro had close to yearly avg rainfall totals in the CWA 2-3 days before Harvey made landfall down in Rockport. It was still showing 30”+ when Harvey was a day away from landfall. Most scoffed at it, and rightfully so, considering it seemed crazy like the CMC. However, the consistency continued and we all know what happened.

This ain’t that though. However, just goes to show you can’t ever discount it. Core rains are intense. If this somehow ends up with a core and has weak steering, someone will get a lot of rain. It could be onshore, or offshore. Lots to watch.

[Ptarmigan]

I think Euro is nailing the path.

Ummmmm...ouch on the bullseye right over the Bayou City.

Well if anything, the Euro had close to yearly avg rainfall totals in the CWA 2-3 days before Harvey made landfall down in Rockport. It was still showing 30”+ when Harvey was a day away from landfall. Most scoffed at it, and rightfully so, considering it seemed crazy like the CMC. However, the consistency continued and we all know what happened.

This ain’t that though. However, just goes to show you can’t ever discount it. Core rains are intense. If this somehow ends up with a core and has weak steering, someone will get a lot of rain. It could be onshore, or offshore. Lots to watch.

Houston has dealt with many core rains. Core rains are difficult to forecast.

[Stratton20]

yup, we are in the range where mesocale models are way more valuable than global models , if we do get a core rain event in houston, those models will do a far better job at seeing that over the globals