June 2026

[Cpv17]

Looks like this is going to be a much bigger event for those in the eastern half of SETX.

I'm fine that lol I dont want a flood anyway but neither do those guys

Yeah, I honestly don’t even need any rain at my house and the farmers definitely don’t need any right now.

[tireman4]

From Jeff Lindner on Facebook

6-15-26 630am

Significant heavy rainfall and flash flood risk through mid week as a stalling front and weak tropical low merge over the area.

Rainfall amounts have been adjusted significantly upward overnight with widespread totals of 4-7 inches likely and isolated amounts of 8-12 inches possible. Nearly all guidance members are showing significant forecasted rainfall “bombs” over the area with many showing amounts well into the double digit range. HREF guidance continues to have a persistent signal between Houston and Beaumont for some really high maximum totals. Hard to pinpoint where some of these maximum totals will occur, but there is a growing risk level that significant rainfall amounts will be realized over portions of the area.

Given the moisture levels in place hourly rainfall rates of 2-5 inches will be possible which may yield 3-hr rainfall totals of 4-8 inches…this is the type of pattern where significant flash flooding will occur in a few hours.

Hydro:
Increased rainfall amounts support significant rises on area creeks, bayous, and rivers potentially to flooding levels. Minor and moderate flooding will be possible on any watershed over the region with some instances of major flooding possible.

Stay tuned to forecasts and have multiple ways to receive warnings.

[tireman4]

HGX AFD..

A dangerous weather pattern is beginning to take shape over SE Texas
early today with hazardous weather conditions anticipated through
late in the work week. A cold front is already making its way
through the Brazos Valley early today with reports of flooding
already ongoing over Burleson. The environment over SE Texas is
poised to be moisture rich and highly optimized for rainfall
efficiency. Forecast soundings for this morning will be a textbook
example of heavy rainfall. Deep saturation, skinny CAPE profiles
with a deep warm cloud layer spanning around 16,000ft. TPWs based
on Satellite imagery are already at 2.3 inches, though model
guidance indicates that these values could vary from 2.1-2.6
inches at times. These values all fall well beyond the 90th
climatological percentile, even exceeding the max/daily max record
for this time of the year. The frontal boundary will continue to
serve as a lifting mechanism, producing additional showers and
thunderstorms as it marches south and eventually stalls over SE
Texas, resulting in numerous showers/storms throughout today.
We`ll also be underneath the front-right entrance region of a
longwave trough aloft as well, which should further enhance
rainfall.

The heavy rainfall threat will continue to increase
into Tuesday with the introduction of another X-Factor in the
forecast. A trough of low pressure currently over northeastern
Mexico is expected to drift north-northeast towards the Texas
coastal bend. There is still some uncertainty with respect to how
this low will evolve these next few days. It could maintain
strength as a low/trough or deepen/strengthen, maybe even undergo
tropical development (30% chance from NHC within the next 7 days).
Regardless, it will still lend some hand in enhancing rainfall on
Tuesday, continuing into Wednesday as this system tracks
eastwards. Such situations like these (low/tropical wave passing
through deep tropical airmass) have been efficient rainfall
producers in the past, and model QPF totals have shown very
impressive amounts over this time frame.

With all this in mind, a Moderate (level 3/4) Risk of Excessive
Rainfall will be in effect for portions of SE Texas, mainly along
the coast, from Monday morning through Wednesday. Rainfall totals
of 2-7 inches are generally forecasted. However, these totals are
likely to fall over a very short period, with rainfall rates of
2-4"/hr expected, up to 5"/hr possible, especially near the coast.
As a result, some areas could receive very localized, high-end
amounts. Flash flooding will be possible, especially in urban and
low lying areas with poor drainage. Prolonged rainfall may also
result in rises in rivers, creeks and streams, with runoff
becoming more likely as soils become saturated. Moderate Rainfall
Risks are seldom issued, only when there is a chance for
significant, impactful flooding over the area. For perspective,
around 1 out of 5 fatalities from flooding occur on a Moderate
risk day. Make sure to have multiple ways of receiving warnings
and remain weather aware!

Strong winds may also develop along the coastline as well from
Tuesday night through Thursday, though it is contingent on the
strength and positioning of the low/trough. The heavy rainfall
threat, broadly speaking, should decline on Thursday, though a
Slight (level 2/4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall will still be in
place over the area. The flooding threat should diminish into
Friday. Ridging will slowly rebuild over the Gulf with rain
chances decreasing into the weekend.

There will also be a moderate to high risk of rip currents for the
next several days as well. If you plan to go to the beach, swim near
a lifeguard, if possible, and be sure to avoid swimming near any
rocks, jetties, and piers where rip currents frequently occur. Above
normal tides and some isolated minor coastal flooding will also be
possible along the coastline at high tide as well.

[tireman4]

Matt Lanza...



https://theeyewall.substack.com/p/signi ... dium=email





In brief: Significant heavy rain and flash flooding will impact much of the western half of the Gulf Coast through midweek. Areas between Corpus Christi and Lake Charles, as well as in southwest Mississippi are likely to see the heaviest rainfall, with max totals reaching or exceed 15 inches in isolated spots. We continue to watch the situation on the Gulf Coast, and indeed, we’re beginning to see heavy rainfall chances come to fruition. Rain totals as high as 4 to 6 inches occurred in portions of Texas yesterday and overnight. And additional heavy rain is already occurring this morning. A morning view of radar showing areas of heavy rain, numerous flash flood warnings (green boxes) and highlighted risk areas across Texas and Louisiana.
As the day goes on, this heavy rainfall is going to drop south and east some. It will begin to impact coastal areas of Texas, including the Corpus Christi, Houston, and Beaumont areas, as well as much of northern, central, and southwestern Louisiana. Additional heavy rain is likely to bubble up from the Gulf tonight, impacting the coast. Between where the decaying cold front stalls and the tropical moisture hits it will determine who is likely to see the highest rain totals once all is said and done. This would probably be along and southeast of US-59 in Texas and south of I-10 east of Houston into Louisiana.
HREF ensemble view of heavy rain risk through Tuesday morning. Lollipops of lavender and teal indicate the risk of upwards of 10 inches of rainfall will be present in some spots. Don’t focus on the specifics here but rather take this as a potential outcome. Additional waves of heavy rain are likely tomorrow into Wednesday as well as the tropical disturbance we’ve been watching moves back out over water and back ashore once more. This will lead to a building flooding threat across this region over the next few days. Coastal Texas, southwest Louisiana, and a portion of Mississippi are highlighted in a moderate risk (level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall today and tomorrow. We could see a portion of this area get upgraded to a high risk if we begin seeing consistent rain in a location. This continues for Wednesday in the Lake Charles, Beaumont, and Houston areas, particularly for the morning hours. What this means is that while not everyone is going to see significant flooding, there are likely to be pockets of considerable flash flooding across the area, particularly in urban and poor drainage locations. This means streets may become impassable at times, and if you have the ability to reschedule non-urgent travel, it’s recommended. This is the most significant rainfall setup in this area since 2024. As the WPC excessive rainfall discussion put it this morning, “any storms that develop in this environment (will have) an almost unnatural ability to produce heavy rain.
Total anticipated rainfall over the western Gulf Coast through late week. Some smaller areas are likely to see 15 inches or more when all is said and done.
Total rainfall when all is said and done will average 3 to 10 inches across this region. There may be more isolated locations that see as much as 15 inches or even more. An extremely potent rainfall event for the Gulf Coast. With respect for tropical development, that matters primarily as any storm could try to consolidate heavy rainfall and focus it on a more specific area. It is not likely that any tropical development would extend beyond depression or low-end tropical storm status. You should be thinking of this as predominantly a heavy rainstorm and flash flooding event for the Gulf Coast.

[DoctorMu]

3.87 inches and still falling. We’re in a flash flood warnings.

[Stratton20]

12z ICON has a max bullseye of 36 inches, good god. Still cant say where these bullseyes will set up for sure, but now with multiple models showing bullseyes exceeding 30 inches, this could get really ugly for someone unfortunately

[Brazoriatx979]

Has the front stalled out yet?

[tireman4]

Training starting over the Metro area and south. I think we ( hopefully) should be ok until the afternoon into the night time hours.

[Brazoriatx979]

Strong wording coming from HGX...

[MH5]

Just a firehose of moisture and heavy rain. Looks pretty concerning for those along and just E of 59 for training cells through the middle of the day. HRRR seems to be under doing it in terms of current intensity and coverage.

[tireman4]

Travis Herzog on Facebook

"POTENTIAL FOR LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING"
That's the headline from the National Weather Service in their new Flood Watch, now extended until 7AM Thursday.
They continue with more strong language:
“There is an increased danger to lives and property due to flash flooding. Flash Flooding is likely and considerable flash flooding is possible.”
“Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Extensive street flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers are possible.”
While this weather system may never get a name, it will have similar impacts to a slow-moving tropical depression or tropical storm and should be treated as such. That's one reason we've upgraded today and Tuesday to ABC13 Weather Alert Days.
We now expect 4-7" of rain to be common in Southeast Texas, and while some will get less than this range, others will pick up more than 10". In fact, some of the torrential storms could have rain rates above 4" per hour, which would overwhelm the storm drainage.
Unfortunately, this is the type of set up where water levels can eventually get high enough to come into homes and businesses if those heavy storms "train" one after another in the same spot. It’s even possible a Flash Flood Emergency could be declared somewhere in Southeast Texas over the next few days. That is the highest level of a flash flood warning and reserved only for the most life-threatening flash floods. If you have emergency alerts on your phone turned on, you will get an automatic warning from the National Weather Service if your location is placed under that type of flood warning.
The problem is we cannot pinpoint exactly where these extremely high rainfall totals will occur, so we all need to stay weather aware and check on conditions frequently while trying to go about our lives the next few days.
We will be providing continuous weather information and forecast updates on our 24/7 streaming channel, which you can watch through any of our apps or at abc13.com/live.
Stay safe and be wise when you venture out on the roadways. We'll get through this stormy period together

[tireman4]

From Jeff Lindner on Facebook

6-15-26 noon
Flash flood warning until 300pm for central Harris County.
Street flooding is occurring from heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches per hour. 2-3 inches of rain has fallen over the Spring Branch area to Aldine in the last hour.
Do not drive into high water

[Stratton20]

12z Euro with a 22 inch bullseye in houston lol, that would absolutely be enough to bring buffalo bayou out of its banks and potentially flood homes and businesses, watching so very closely

[Brazoriatx979]

So far so good here in brazoria county..seems like there is a bubble where im at

[DoctorMu]

Training starting over the Metro area and south. I think we ( hopefully) should be ok until the afternoon into the night time hours.

Yep - there's the answer on the stalled FROPA. Going as expected.

We're a little worked over up here...about 50/50 on more showers this afternoon and 60% chance tomorrow. I'm glad I mowed the front lawn at least! lol

[tireman4]

I have not seen the atmosphere this amped in a long time. PWATS 2.1-2.6, low convective temperatures and an unstable air mass that all adds up to torrential downpours. With the possibility of training, it will be a long set of days for the CWA.

[Brazoriatx979]

Looks like its all heading out and about to be over

[DoctorMu]

Radar:

[tireman4]

Looks like its all heading out and about to be over

Oh no no. This is just the first and second inning of a nine inning ballgame. There is so much more left.

[DoctorMu]

Looks like its all heading out and about to be over

Not so fast. See Corpus radar.