June 2026

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Cpv17
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I’m not getting my hopes up about all this rain. The last time the WPC had us getting that much rain was just a few weeks ago and that was a bust.
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djmike
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2026 5:14 pm I’m not getting my hopes up about all this rain. The last time the WPC had us getting that much rain was just a few weeks ago and that was a bust.
Right. We usually get that much rain when it’s unexpected. Ive always believed that. Forecasted for days, rarely happens. Unexpected, build the ark! Lol
Mike
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DoctorMu
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djmike wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2026 5:21 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2026 5:14 pm I’m not getting my hopes up about all this rain. The last time the WPC had us getting that much rain was just a few weeks ago and that was a bust.
Right. We usually get that much rain when it’s unexpected. Ive always believed that. Forecasted for days, rarely happens. Unexpected, build the ark! Lol
"Expect the unexpected!"
Stratton20
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I understand that skepticism, but i dont see many folks missing out, not with a stalled boundary across the region and near record atmospheric levels of moisture for this time of year over head, widespread 4-8 inches for all of se texas looks good, still worried about a couple spots getting the real big bullseye which could exceed or get close to 20 inches
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DoctorMu
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North and east of us are getting rain. Nothing here. I may mow in a bit.
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2026 5:28 pm I understand that skepticism, but i dont see many folks missing out, not with a stalled boundary across the region and near record atmospheric levels of moisture for this time of year over head, widespread 4-8 inches for all of se texas looks good, still worried about a couple spots getting the real big bullseye which could exceed or get close to 20 inches
It's going to happen. Just who gets how much and where and when are too difficult to predict. Having said that, this has been the best setup for significant rain this summer: FROPA + tropical moisture + running low. Rarely seen from June 15 on in our neck of the woods.

IMFY could be a bust, but Navasota and Bryan could have flooding. Bryan seems to have received 2+ more inches of rain this month than us.

If I had to predict, I think this is south of I-10s turn...we'll see.
Cpv17
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djmike wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2026 5:21 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2026 5:14 pm I’m not getting my hopes up about all this rain. The last time the WPC had us getting that much rain was just a few weeks ago and that was a bust.
Right. We usually get that much rain when it’s unexpected. Ive always believed that. Forecasted for days, rarely happens. Unexpected, build the ark! Lol
Yeah, I’d be surprised if I end up getting more than 5” out of this.
SLM87TX
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Waco is already getting hammered. This shows how loaded the atmosphere is. Now it's a matter of waiting to see where else it will let go.
Stratton20
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00z GFS focuses the core of the heaviest rains right in the heart of the metro, 12-16 inch bullseye
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Rip76
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2026 10:53 pm 00z GFS focuses the core of the heaviest rains right in the heart of the metro, 12-16 inch bullseye
Oof.
Stratton20
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00z Euro has a bullseye of 30 inches just to the SE of the houston metro
Nuby33
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Seeing doppler radar estimated one hour rainfall accumulations of over 5 inches between Waco, Killeen, and Bryan/CS.. . With storm totals approaching the 8 to 10 inch range
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djmike
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Oof…
IMG_0683.jpeg
(298.89 KiB) Not downloaded yet
Mike
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DoctorMu
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The storms hit about 4 am. 2.5 inches IMFY. Street flooding and flash flood warnings in CLL. Bryan could have 4+ inches.
Brazoriatx979
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Man is all that slow moving mess in the hill country suppose to make it here? Thats going to be a problem
Brazoriatx979
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Rain totals have increased over night
Cpv17
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WPC is now calling for 6-12” this week.
Stratton20
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New 06z Euro has a 35 inch bullseye…. Just looked at the 6z HRRR run, it too has a 30 inch bullseye in se texas
Cpv17
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Looks like this is going to be a much bigger event for those in the eastern half of SETX.
Brazoriatx979
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Jun 15, 2026 8:01 am Looks like this is going to be a much bigger event for those in the eastern half of SETX.
I'm fine that lol I dont want a flood anyway but neither do those guys
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