May 2026

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Cpv17
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jabcwb2 wrote: Mon May 18, 2026 5:10 pm The potential for high levels of rain is over a series of days, right?
Correct. But there will be some days where someone could easily pick up 5” in one day, maybe even more than that. The mesoscale models will help a lot.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon May 18, 2026 5:24 pm
jabcwb2 wrote: Mon May 18, 2026 5:10 pm The potential for high levels of rain is over a series of days, right?
Correct. But there will be some days where someone could easily pick up 5” in one day, maybe even more than that. The mesoscale models will help a lot.
I’ll take two separate days of 5 inches spread apart, then 4-5 days of 1-2 inches.

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Stratton20
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I honestly wouldn’t be that surprised if someone receives 15-20 inches of rain. Especially if the Euro is right, moisture content is going to be extremely high, the lifting mechanism will be there with that semi- permanent western us trough, so these storms no doubt will be very efficient rain producers. Setup looks similar to the 2015 memorial day floods, i don’t think we will see flooding that bad, but i very easily could see a couple of places picking up over a foot over rain in the next 7 days , and thay doesn’t account for rain chances going even beyond that period.
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon May 18, 2026 5:42 pm I honestly wouldn’t be that surprised if someone receives 15-20 inches of rain. Especially if the Euro is right, moisture content is going to be extremely high, the lifting mechanism will be there with that semi- permanent western us trough, so these storms no doubt will be very efficient rain producers. Setup looks similar to the 2015 memorial day floods, i don’t think we will see flooding that bad, but i very easily could see a couple of places picking up over a foot over rain in the next 7 days , and thay doesn’t account for rain chances going even beyond that period.
I wouldn’t take anything off the table as of right now. Mesoscale models are about to be put to the test.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 yup. But i think generally we should all see at least 3-5 inches out of this. But yeah after looking at the euro, GFS and CMC, i am concerned about the potential for some eye opening totals somewhere
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon May 18, 2026 5:56 pm Cpv17 yup. But i think generally we should all see at least 3-5 inches out of this. But yeah after looking at the euro, GFS and CMC, i am concerned about the potential for some eye opening totals somewhere
These late May setups like this have lots of potential for training storms in this part of Texas. Wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see someone pick up some crazy totals.
Brazoriatx979
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon May 18, 2026 6:11 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Mon May 18, 2026 5:56 pm Cpv17 yup. But i think generally we should all see at least 3-5 inches out of this. But yeah after looking at the euro, GFS and CMC, i am concerned about the potential for some eye opening totals somewhere
These late May setups like this have lots of potential for training storms in this part of Texas. Wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see someone pick up some crazy totals.
Knowing our luck...we won't get anything lol
Cpv17
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Brazoriatx979 wrote: Mon May 18, 2026 6:27 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Mon May 18, 2026 6:11 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Mon May 18, 2026 5:56 pm Cpv17 yup. But i think generally we should all see at least 3-5 inches out of this. But yeah after looking at the euro, GFS and CMC, i am concerned about the potential for some eye opening totals somewhere
These late May setups like this have lots of potential for training storms in this part of Texas. Wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see someone pick up some crazy totals.
Knowing our luck...we won't get anything lol
Lmao if you don’t get anything from this you might as well just give up.
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Ptarmigan
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon May 18, 2026 5:42 pm I honestly wouldn’t be that surprised if someone receives 15-20 inches of rain. Especially if the Euro is right, moisture content is going to be extremely high, the lifting mechanism will be there with that semi- permanent western us trough, so these storms no doubt will be very efficient rain producers. Setup looks similar to the 2015 memorial day floods, i don’t think we will see flooding that bad, but i very easily could see a couple of places picking up over a foot over rain in the next 7 days , and thay doesn’t account for rain chances going even beyond that period.
I would not be surprised either.
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