Correct. But there will be some days where someone could easily pick up 5” in one day, maybe even more than that. The mesoscale models will help a lot.
May 2026
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Cpv17
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I’ll take two separate days of 5 inches spread apart, then 4-5 days of 1-2 inches.
Give it to me
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Stratton20
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I honestly wouldn’t be that surprised if someone receives 15-20 inches of rain. Especially if the Euro is right, moisture content is going to be extremely high, the lifting mechanism will be there with that semi- permanent western us trough, so these storms no doubt will be very efficient rain producers. Setup looks similar to the 2015 memorial day floods, i don’t think we will see flooding that bad, but i very easily could see a couple of places picking up over a foot over rain in the next 7 days , and thay doesn’t account for rain chances going even beyond that period.
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Cpv17
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I wouldn’t take anything off the table as of right now. Mesoscale models are about to be put to the test.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2026 5:42 pm I honestly wouldn’t be that surprised if someone receives 15-20 inches of rain. Especially if the Euro is right, moisture content is going to be extremely high, the lifting mechanism will be there with that semi- permanent western us trough, so these storms no doubt will be very efficient rain producers. Setup looks similar to the 2015 memorial day floods, i don’t think we will see flooding that bad, but i very easily could see a couple of places picking up over a foot over rain in the next 7 days , and thay doesn’t account for rain chances going even beyond that period.
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Stratton20
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Cpv17 yup. But i think generally we should all see at least 3-5 inches out of this. But yeah after looking at the euro, GFS and CMC, i am concerned about the potential for some eye opening totals somewhere
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Cpv17
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These late May setups like this have lots of potential for training storms in this part of Texas. Wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see someone pick up some crazy totals.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2026 5:56 pm Cpv17 yup. But i think generally we should all see at least 3-5 inches out of this. But yeah after looking at the euro, GFS and CMC, i am concerned about the potential for some eye opening totals somewhere
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Brazoriatx979
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Knowing our luck...we won't get anything lolCpv17 wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2026 6:11 pmThese late May setups like this have lots of potential for training storms in this part of Texas. Wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see someone pick up some crazy totals.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2026 5:56 pm Cpv17 yup. But i think generally we should all see at least 3-5 inches out of this. But yeah after looking at the euro, GFS and CMC, i am concerned about the potential for some eye opening totals somewhere
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Cpv17
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Lmao if you don’t get anything from this you might as well just give up.Brazoriatx979 wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2026 6:27 pmKnowing our luck...we won't get anything lolCpv17 wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2026 6:11 pmThese late May setups like this have lots of potential for training storms in this part of Texas. Wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see someone pick up some crazy totals.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2026 5:56 pm Cpv17 yup. But i think generally we should all see at least 3-5 inches out of this. But yeah after looking at the euro, GFS and CMC, i am concerned about the potential for some eye opening totals somewhere
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I would not be surprised either.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2026 5:42 pm I honestly wouldn’t be that surprised if someone receives 15-20 inches of rain. Especially if the Euro is right, moisture content is going to be extremely high, the lifting mechanism will be there with that semi- permanent western us trough, so these storms no doubt will be very efficient rain producers. Setup looks similar to the 2015 memorial day floods, i don’t think we will see flooding that bad, but i very easily could see a couple of places picking up over a foot over rain in the next 7 days , and thay doesn’t account for rain chances going even beyond that period.