Tropical Discussion 2025

[Rip76]

Erin Rapid Intensification

80 mb drop in 24 hours.

South of the cone - probably a wobble, but still...

Crazy

[sambucol]

The one coming off Africa has my attention at this point.

[snowman65]

hmmm.. what up with this?

[Pas_Bon]

hmmm.. what up with this?

Single operational GFS run 10+ days out. Nothing to be concerned with yet.
Yes, it showed similar yesterday morning, then showed a Pensacola landfall.

[Stratton20]

Lol folks over in storm2k are already writing our new lemonade wave off already, saying its going to recurve and not get into the gulf, I just dont get why people keep on saying stuff like that when we dont even have a developed system yet

[sambucol]

Lol folks over in storm2k are already writing our new lemonade wave off already, saying its going to recurve and not get into the gulf, I just dont get why people keep on saying stuff like that when we dont even have a developed system yet

Yep. But they do. It’s wise to write nothing off at this point.

[Cpv17]

We have about 5 weeks left of hurricane season for our area. I’m already losing interest in this next system. Time is starting to run out. Maybe we make it unscathed this year.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 way too early to write off this system yet since nothing has formed and so much can change with the steering pattern being 10-12 days out, also 5 weeks left is a lot of time, this comment might not age well lol

[DoctorMu]

We have about 5 weeks left of hurricane season for our area. I’m already losing interest in this next system. Time is starting to run out. Maybe we make it unscathed this year.

It depends. That would take a cooling FROPA usually to turn the easterlies to westerlies. We've been in an easterly mode for awhile. If there's one thing that Texas weather knows how to do, it's getting stuck in a pattern.

Also, those 5 weeks or so are the peak.

[Cpv17]

We have about 5 weeks left of hurricane season for our area. I’m already losing interest in this next system. Time is starting to run out. Maybe we make it unscathed this year.

It depends. That would take a cooling FROPA usually to turn the easterlies to westerlies. We've been in an easterly mode for awhile. If there's one thing that Texas weather knows how to do, it's getting stuck in a pattern.

Also, those 5 weeks or so are the peak.

Yeah, our season usually ends around the third week of September.

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 way too early to write off this system yet since nothing has formed and so much can change with the steering pattern being 10-12 days out, also 5 weeks left is a lot of time, this comment might not age well lol

I was just talking about this next system lol I know 5 weeks left is a good while, especially when peak season is nearing. I’m just not currently as interested in this next system anymore as I once was. Very little ensemble support for anything in the Gulf.

[Cpv17]

We now have an orange for future 99L.

If it goes into the Caribbean and passes south of Puerto Rico, watch out Gulf coast. Most ensembles right now have it N of there though.

[Cpv17]

Of course every storm is different, but in general, this is how it works:

[Ptarmigan]

I would be also concerned of storms that form closer to land.