Tropical Discussion 2025

[Stratton20]

I think that will change in a few weeks, should see the rising air thats been focused over the eastern pacific, it should begin to push into the atlantic basin in 7-10 days , that should start to make the basin a bit more favorable for development

[Cpv17]

I think that will change in a few weeks, should see the rising air thats been focused over the eastern pacific, it should begin to push into the atlantic basin in 7-10 days , that should start to make the basin a bit more favorable for development

Too much dry air in the Atlantic rn.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 that is true, however im starting to notice that dust plumes coming off of africa are coming off at a higher latitude compared to june/july, its definitely still dry out their, but the saharan dust season will likely be wrapping up by early august as it usually does, still a lot of upper ocean heat content in the gulf/ western caribbean, all its going to take is one or two of these waves coming off of africa to find a pocket of favorite conditions closer to US ( gulf coast or US in general)

[Ptarmigan]

Cpv17 that is true, however im starting to notice that dust plumes coming off of africa are coming off at a higher latitude compared to june/july, its definitely still dry out their, but the saharan dust season will likely be wrapping up by early august as it usually does, still a lot of upper ocean heat content in the gulf/ western caribbean, all its going to take is one or two of these waves coming off of africa to find a pocket of favorite conditions closer to US ( gulf coast or US in general)

More concerned what forms closer to North America.

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 that is true, however im starting to notice that dust plumes coming off of africa are coming off at a higher latitude compared to june/july, its definitely still dry out their, but the saharan dust season will likely be wrapping up by early august as it usually does, still a lot of upper ocean heat content in the gulf/ western caribbean, all its going to take is one or two of these waves coming off of africa to find a pocket of favorite conditions closer to US ( gulf coast or US in general)

More concerned what forms closer to North America.

Same here. I’m not big on what happens out in the MDR unless they have a chance at getting into the Gulf.

[Cpv17]

Ensembles still look pretty meh for tropical activity in the Atlantic basin. The Pacific remains active.

[Stratton20]

I have a feeling we are going to get clobbered down the line, even if this is a quieter season , some pretty nasty storms have hit texas in quieter seasons

[Pas_Bon]

I have a feeling we are going to get clobbered down the line, even if this is a quieter season , some pretty nasty storms have hit texas in quieter seasons

I've been saying this, too. I have a really weird feeling about it.

[Brazoriatx979]

I have a feeling we are going to get clobbered down the line, even if this is a quieter season , some pretty nasty storms have hit texas in quieter seasons

I've been saying this, too. I have a really weird feeling about it.

Well if we do, the. We know we are getting one hell of a snow storm then lol.

[Stratton20]

Rising air over the eastern pacific is starting to slowly shift its way into the atlabtic basin, MJO rotation goes into 8/1/2 and 3, should start to see activity pick up within the next 2 weeks, ensembles are waking up, basin is starting to look more favorable in mid august

[Pas_Bon]

I have a feeling we are going to get clobbered down the line, even if this is a quieter season , some pretty nasty storms have hit texas in quieter seasons

I've been saying this, too. I have a really weird feeling about it.

Well if we do, the. We know we are getting one hell of a snow storm then lol.

YASSSSSS

[sambucol]

I have a feeling we are going to get clobbered down the line, even if this is a quieter season , some pretty nasty storms have hit texas in quieter seasons

I've been saying this, too. I have a really weird feeling about it.

Same here.

[Cpv17]

I still like the 10th-20th timeframe for the models to really start to ramp up with activity and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see 1-2 Gulf storms this month.

[Stratton20]

I wouldn’t either, interesting the 6–10 and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks from NOAA have pretty good odds of precipitation across much of the gulf coast including se texas

[DoctorMu]

I still like the 10th-20th timeframe for the models to really start to ramp up with activity and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see 1-2 Gulf storms this month.

Climo and not much shear...

So, here. we. go.

[Pas_Bon]

Hold onto your britches, folks…..it’s going to be an interesting next few weeks. May fortune find us in Texas (and Louisiana….and errbody, for that matter).

[tireman4]

Colin Myers

[Stratton20]

Not even day later after myers posted that, and we likely already have dexter by later tonight and two other areas to watch, so much for that “ slow start” lol

[Stratton20]

Man that is a pretty concerning look in regards to OHC

[Pas_Bon]

Man that is a pretty concerning look in regards to OHC