Tropical Discussion 2025

[Stratton20]

I think that will change in a few weeks, should see the rising air thats been focused over the eastern pacific, it should begin to push into the atlantic basin in 7-10 days , that should start to make the basin a bit more favorable for development

[Cpv17]

I think that will change in a few weeks, should see the rising air thats been focused over the eastern pacific, it should begin to push into the atlantic basin in 7-10 days , that should start to make the basin a bit more favorable for development

Too much dry air in the Atlantic rn.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 that is true, however im starting to notice that dust plumes coming off of africa are coming off at a higher latitude compared to june/july, its definitely still dry out their, but the saharan dust season will likely be wrapping up by early august as it usually does, still a lot of upper ocean heat content in the gulf/ western caribbean, all its going to take is one or two of these waves coming off of africa to find a pocket of favorite conditions closer to US ( gulf coast or US in general)

[Ptarmigan]

Cpv17 that is true, however im starting to notice that dust plumes coming off of africa are coming off at a higher latitude compared to june/july, its definitely still dry out their, but the saharan dust season will likely be wrapping up by early august as it usually does, still a lot of upper ocean heat content in the gulf/ western caribbean, all its going to take is one or two of these waves coming off of africa to find a pocket of favorite conditions closer to US ( gulf coast or US in general)

More concerned what forms closer to North America.

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 that is true, however im starting to notice that dust plumes coming off of africa are coming off at a higher latitude compared to june/july, its definitely still dry out their, but the saharan dust season will likely be wrapping up by early august as it usually does, still a lot of upper ocean heat content in the gulf/ western caribbean, all its going to take is one or two of these waves coming off of africa to find a pocket of favorite conditions closer to US ( gulf coast or US in general)

More concerned what forms closer to North America.

Same here. I’m not big on what happens out in the MDR unless they have a chance at getting into the Gulf.

[Cpv17]

Ensembles still look pretty meh for tropical activity in the Atlantic basin. The Pacific remains active.

[Stratton20]

I have a feeling we are going to get clobbered down the line, even if this is a quieter season , some pretty nasty storms have hit texas in quieter seasons

[Pas_Bon]

I have a feeling we are going to get clobbered down the line, even if this is a quieter season , some pretty nasty storms have hit texas in quieter seasons

I've been saying this, too. I have a really weird feeling about it.

[Brazoriatx979]

I have a feeling we are going to get clobbered down the line, even if this is a quieter season , some pretty nasty storms have hit texas in quieter seasons

I've been saying this, too. I have a really weird feeling about it.

Well if we do, the. We know we are getting one hell of a snow storm then lol.

[Stratton20]

Rising air over the eastern pacific is starting to slowly shift its way into the atlabtic basin, MJO rotation goes into 8/1/2 and 3, should start to see activity pick up within the next 2 weeks, ensembles are waking up, basin is starting to look more favorable in mid august

[Pas_Bon]

I have a feeling we are going to get clobbered down the line, even if this is a quieter season , some pretty nasty storms have hit texas in quieter seasons

I've been saying this, too. I have a really weird feeling about it.

Well if we do, the. We know we are getting one hell of a snow storm then lol.

YASSSSSS