July 2025

[DoctorMu]

Special Weather Statement issued July 13 at 3:00PM CDT by NWS Houston/Galveston TX
At 259 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles east of Camp Creek Lake to near Snook
to near Fayetteville. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.

Locations impacted include...
College Station, Bryan, Brenham, Navasota, Madisonville, Caldwell,
Austonio, Washington, Somerville, Snook, Bedias, Kurten, Burton,
Wixon Valley, Millican, Anderson, Lake Somerville Dam, Kyle Field,
Bryan Utilities Lake, and Lake Somerville State Park & Trailway.
Instructions
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. [can confirm. lol]
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Sender NWS Houston/Galveston TX
Sent 7/13/2025 15:00 CDT
Houston; Madison; Walker; Burleson; Brazos; Washington; Grimes; Montgomery; Austin; Waller

[DoctorMu]

2-3 inch an hour rain is coming down, frequent lighting. We were a miss yesterday and Friday. This should get us to next weekend.

Survive and advance in mid-July.

[Rip76]

ICON double downs on a weak TX into Texas next weekend.

Feeling like there's some agreement on lemonade or some weak tropical influence in a week.

I noticed even long term, EURO keeps any ridging in the 10+day forecast largely on our southern flank.

Is this run through Louisiana or down into the Gulf and North into Texas?

[davidiowx]

Wife, kids and I at our lake house in Toledo Bend (Louisiana side near Many) and it’s been lightning, thunder and torrential rains for a good hour and a half with some minor let up in between. One cell followed by another and one more.

[Stratton20]

View from the Oasis at Lake Travis!

[DoctorMu]

ICON double downs on a weak TX into Texas next weekend.

Feeling like there's some agreement on lemonade or some weak tropical influence in a week.

I noticed even long term, EURO keeps any ridging in the 10+day forecast largely on our southern flank.

Is this run through Louisiana or down into the Gulf and North into Texas?

From Florida across the Gulf coast and into Texas..

The latest ICON has it moving into LA. We'll see.

[Cromagnum]

Lampasas and Llano rivers flooded yesterday and the Frio flooded this morning. More flooding rain predicted this afternoon. What a bizarre July out here.

[Rip76]

Looks very Louisiana for “Dexter.”

[Brazoriatx979]

I have a hard time believing anything 57 says on storms now, since he botched Beryl

[Pas_Bon]

I have a hard time believing anything 57 says on storms now, since he botched Beryl

I don't understand why he's seen as infallible over there. He has whiffed on some pretty big stuff.

[Cpv17]

I have a hard time believing anything 57 says on storms now, since he botched Beryl

Whenever I see him post something I just automatically scroll past it. I never read his posts anymore.

[DoctorMu]

I have a hard time believing anything 57 says on storms now, since he botched Beryl

I don't understand why he's seen as infallible over there. He has whiffed on some pretty big stuff.

Yep. Summer and winter.

[DoctorMu]

Spotty seabreeze showers around SETX. We just had a small vigorous cell just move through the A&M campus.

The Hill Country is still getting pounded. Drought or flood - seems like no in between.

[DoctorMu]

Looks very Louisiana for “Dexter.”

I'm hoping that Dexter is disorganized so we might see some rain out of it. A sip of lemonade.

Organized LA TC = HEAT for SETX

The Euro forecast would be more conducive to some showers during the weekend. The ridging stays mostly south and becomes a GoM, Caribbean hurricane blocking ridge instead of a DR... and weakens further as July ends. Temps would be about average to a degree or two below average. Less than six weeks to the start of CFB! Give me more of what Euro is offering.

[DoctorMu]

We'll see, but it looks like potential for a "Citrus Express" moisture flow setup. Give Jason and I more of this more Florida-like summer weather.

[Rip76]

Some boomers out there today.
I’ll take this everyday.

[jasons2k]

Looking south from the Rayford Kroger.

[jasons2k]

From the driveway.

[davidiowx]

Love to see the cumulonimbus clouds steady on inland. As others have noted, reminds me of the 80s and 90s summers as a kid.

[tireman4]

440
FXUS64 KHGX 150526
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1226 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

- Rain chances lowering thru midweek, but not totally eliminated.

- Chances of precipitation begin increasing again late Thurs-Sat.

- Still monitoring the tropics (northeast & north central Gulf).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Overall forecast reasoning and trends remain about the same as
previously advertised. GOES Total PW loop shows some drier air
beginning to move into the area from the Gulf. This, along with some
higher mid-upper level ridging in the area, should continue the
trend of lowering day-to-day shra/tstm chances/coverage into
midweek. Would still anticipate a few pop-up cells in association
with heating/seabreeze today, but by Wed we`ll see PW vales at or
slightly below 1.5" areawide and an even tougher environment for
storm initiation.

Inverted mid-upper trof off the east coast of Florida will be making
eastward progress and into the Gulf late today and Wednesday.
This`ll be the region NHC will be looking to see whether a well
defined llvl circulation can emerge somewhere within the disturbed
wx. And if so...where it does so. If over the water, conditions are
somewhat favorable for some additional development for a possible
depression to form in the next several days over the ne/nctrl Gulf.
Current model consensus suggests areas more to our east may see the
more impactful risk/wx...*BUT* take all that with a grain of salt
until if/when/where things become better defined.

One thing we are fairly confident in seeing is a return of higher PW
air (2.0-2.4" values) moving in from the east late Thurs into
Saturday as the mid-upper trof moves toward the western Gulf Coast.
Pattern beyond that is not exactly clear cut. Some guidance
indicates a lingering weakness in the area into early next
week...others some mild ridging. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Two areas of showers/storms are still around Southeast Texas late
this afternoon: one near CLL and pushing northward and the other
near IAH. Some of these storms are capable of producing wind gusts
in excess of 30-40kt at times and intermittent MVFR/IFR
conditions. Shower/storm activity expected to gradually decrease
after sunset, then dissipate completely by 03Z. Another round of
MVFR ceilings expected overnight for CXO and northward after 10Z.
Some periods of patchy fog possible as well going into early
Tuesday morning, especially for those that received rainfall
earlier today. VFR conditions return by 16Z areawide with
southerly winds around 7-12kt. Another round of isolated to
scattered showers/storms is possible Tuesday afternoon after
20Z...this has been covered for now with PROB30`s for SHRA for
terminals around I-10 but these could be upgraded to TS if
confidence increases on location for this convection.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow should prevail with 2-
3ft seas. Shower/thunderstorm chances increase late Thursday into
the weekend. NHC continues to monitor portions of the northeast and
north central Gulf for some potential tropical development. 47


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 74 93 73 / 20 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 93 76 95 76 / 40 10 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 92 82 92 81 / 20 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...JM