July 2025

[869MB]

Besides maybe the CMC at times, the long range global models have been close to useless for all intents and purposes. Last week all of the models, outside of the CMC like I illustrated yesterday, depicted a hot and dry weather pattern over the majority of Central and SE TX this week through July 4th. I distinctly remember David Tillman suggesting last week we may not see any rain for 10 days straight or longer, yet here we are.

[user:null]

Besides maybe the CMC at times, the long range global models have been close to useless for all intents and purposes. Last week all of the models, outside of the CMC like I illustrated yesterday, depicted a hot and dry weather pattern over the majority of Central and SE TX this week through July 4th. I distinctly remember David Tillman suggesting last week we may not see any rain for 10 days straight or longer, yet here we are.

I very much think that models have a "dry bias" over Texas during summer. Even the recent NWS discussion (morning) made note of this.

[Ptarmigan]

Mesos are pretty much useless right now. This is a very tricky forecast.

The mesos forecast did not see this morning's event. These type of events are tricky to forecast.

[Cromagnum]

I just can't anymore with social media. I'm pretty well convinced the average person is functionally brain damaged with some of the BS I've seen spewed online.

[DoctorMu]

Understaffing a NWS (Houston down 44%) and reduced weather ballon launchings are impacting modeling.

The Euro may be less affected. TWC picked up on increased rain chances and amount of rain than NWS, models, mesos. The cuts are costing more in dollars and lives than any savings.

[DoctorMu]

Should mention that occurrence around the holidays doesn’t help in staffing and accuracy.

[tireman4]

Steve McCauley

[DoctorMu]

Clouds and rain are still around CLL, despite a 10% chance of rain forecast and forecast by HGX yesterday that the low would be gone. Lots of rain in the Hill Country NW of Waco, including Granbury.

This warm core low has not given up the ghost yet. To be fair, post, ghostly tropical systems and moisture as we know maintain energy that causes damage many after landfall. The NC mountains found that out first hand with Helene...although NWS forecasts were of great concern.

Keep in mind that Beryl's forecast and damage really snuck up on some of the forecasters and people around the July 4 holiday last year, including in Texas. Skeleton MSM and weather crews missed it.

TWC has been broadcasting programs about lobster fisherman and ice truckers instead of the deadly flooding weather in the Hill Country.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/s ... &length=24

[DoctorMu]

This was the NWS forecast discussion Thursday night when campers and counselors in Kerr County were preparing to sleep.

Tricky, but was it actionable? Kerr County was not included in the flood watch. How many counselors would have had weather alert from NOAA or local forecasts on their smart phones. Were some out of cell range? Tragic circumstances. The clues for disaster are there in the forecast discussion.

UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Updated the Flood Watch to include Bexar, Kendall, Gillespie, and
Llano Counties. The Flood Watch is in effect through 7 AM Friday.

Abundant tropical moisture continues to be pulled across the local
area this evening and stays through the overnight hours. A low level
jet is forecast to increase through the period and helps with the
development of new cells which are expected to be heavy rain
producers with precipitable water values ranging from 2 to 2.5
inches. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated 5 to 7 inches
are possible across the Flood Watch area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Scattered shower activity has been ongoing across South-Central
Texas throughout the late morning and early afternoon, with a
gradual increase in coverage. A substantial plume of deep tropical
moisture continues to stream north across South-Central Texas,
characterized by unseasonably moist precipitable water values as
high as about 2.4 inches. The 12Z Del Rio upper-air sounding this
morning observed a PW of 2.31 inches, which is near daily record
high values. The axis of a negatively tilted mid-level trough most
readily apparent on 700mb analyses is beginning to move poleward
towards the Edwards Plateau, leading to rounds of shower activity
throughout South-Central Texas into tomorrow as the advancing trough
prompts the ascent of moist air. A mesoscale convective vortex over
the Big Bend area has also enhanced moisture advection into our
region.

Observed and simulated vertical profiles show an environment
presently conducive to heavy rain, supporting 1 to 2 inch per hour
rain rates. Given the broad region of rising air and lack of
dominant surface boundaries, shower activity looks to remain widely
distributed across South-Central Texas with sufficient instability
for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Strong gusts of 40
to 50 mph are also possible as the heavy rain rates drag down cooler
air aloft. Cold pools expanding under weak deep-layer flow may
become a focusing mechanism for concentrating a few clusters of
showers and storms as depicted on some of the high-resolution
mesoscale guidance, and the heaviest rain totals may be associated
with these slow-moving clusters. Models remain in disagreement over
the placement of the heaviest rain totals, though the greatest
rainfall potential this afternoon into tonight is over the Highway
90 corridor, southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. Rainfall
totals of 1 to 3 inches appear likely, but locally higher amounts
upwards of 5 to 7 inches could materialize if slow-moving storms
begin to cluster. Given the heavy rainfall potential, some flooding
is possible. A Flood Watch is now in effect through 7 AM Friday
morning for the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country,
where the intersection of higher forecast rainfall amounts and
rainfall from the past few days is most evident. While the greatest
concentration of modeled precipitation is in the aforementioned
areas, the highest rain amounts could shift depending on where
storms aggregate, and expansion towards the I-35 corridor is
possible later this evening into the overnight as the trough moves
gradually east.

Coverage of showers and storms should begin to decrease Friday as
the axis of the trough swings out of our area. However, the
environment continues to support isolated showers favoring mostly
the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country as the moist tropical
airmass remains in place. Additional shower development could also
occur along convergent flow through the Coastal Plains towards the I-
35 corridor. Cloud cover and rain-cooled air will support
temperatures near to below average for this time of year. Highs in
the 80s to low 90s are expected with lows in the mid 70s.

&&

[Cpv17]

This was the NWS forecast discussion Thursday night when campers and counselors in Kerr County were preparing to sleep.

Tricky, but was it actionable? Kerr County was not included in the flood watch. How many counselors would have had weather alert from NOAA or local forecasts on their smart phones. Were some out of cell range? Tragic circumstances. The clues for disaster are there in the forecast discussion.

UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Updated the Flood Watch to include Bexar, Kendall, Gillespie, and
Llano Counties. The Flood Watch is in effect through 7 AM Friday.

Abundant tropical moisture continues to be pulled across the local
area this evening and stays through the overnight hours. A low level
jet is forecast to increase through the period and helps with the
development of new cells which are expected to be heavy rain
producers with precipitable water values ranging from 2 to 2.5
inches. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated 5 to 7 inches
are possible across the Flood Watch area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Scattered shower activity has been ongoing across South-Central
Texas throughout the late morning and early afternoon, with a
gradual increase in coverage. A substantial plume of deep tropical
moisture continues to stream north across South-Central Texas,
characterized by unseasonably moist precipitable water values as
high as about 2.4 inches. The 12Z Del Rio upper-air sounding this
morning observed a PW of 2.31 inches, which is near daily record
high values. The axis of a negatively tilted mid-level trough most
readily apparent on 700mb analyses is beginning to move poleward
towards the Edwards Plateau, leading to rounds of shower activity
throughout South-Central Texas into tomorrow as the advancing trough
prompts the ascent of moist air. A mesoscale convective vortex over
the Big Bend area has also enhanced moisture advection into our
region.

Observed and simulated vertical profiles show an environment
presently conducive to heavy rain, supporting 1 to 2 inch per hour
rain rates. Given the broad region of rising air and lack of
dominant surface boundaries, shower activity looks to remain widely
distributed across South-Central Texas with sufficient instability
for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Strong gusts of 40
to 50 mph are also possible as the heavy rain rates drag down cooler
air aloft. Cold pools expanding under weak deep-layer flow may
become a focusing mechanism for concentrating a few clusters of
showers and storms as depicted on some of the high-resolution
mesoscale guidance, and the heaviest rain totals may be associated
with these slow-moving clusters. Models remain in disagreement over
the placement of the heaviest rain totals, though the greatest
rainfall potential this afternoon into tonight is over the Highway
90 corridor, southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. Rainfall
totals of 1 to 3 inches appear likely, but locally higher amounts
upwards of 5 to 7 inches could materialize if slow-moving storms
begin to cluster. Given the heavy rainfall potential, some flooding
is possible. A Flood Watch is now in effect through 7 AM Friday
morning for the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country,
where the intersection of higher forecast rainfall amounts and
rainfall from the past few days is most evident. While the greatest
concentration of modeled precipitation is in the aforementioned
areas, the highest rain amounts could shift depending on where
storms aggregate, and expansion towards the I-35 corridor is
possible later this evening into the overnight as the trough moves
gradually east.

Coverage of showers and storms should begin to decrease Friday as
the axis of the trough swings out of our area. However, the
environment continues to support isolated showers favoring mostly
the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country as the moist tropical
airmass remains in place. Additional shower development could also
occur along convergent flow through the Coastal Plains towards the I-
35 corridor. Cloud cover and rain-cooled air will support
temperatures near to below average for this time of year. Highs in
the 80s to low 90s are expected with lows in the mid 70s.

&&

It’s truly sickening. There couldn’t have been a worse time for this to happen.

[DoctorMu]

^I think Kerr Co. was likely in the original flood watch, but not mentioned in that update. Smart phones should have weather updates. I have to keep in mind that unless someone is a weather geek like us, there are too many nuances and background for the general public to comprehend the potential danger. A 26 ft surge - a tidal wave with trees, logs, debris, rocks

And during a camping/holiday/down weekend.

[Rip76]

Clouds and rain are still around CLL, despite a 10% chance of rain forecast and forecast by HGX yesterday that the low would be gone. Lots of rain in the Hill Country NW of Waco, including Granbury.

This warm core low has not given up the ghost yet. To be fair, post, ghostly tropical systems and moisture as we know maintain energy that causes damage many after landfall. The NC mountains found that out first hand with Helene...although NWS forecasts were of great concern.

Keep in mind that Beryl's forecast and damage really snuck up on some of the forecasters and people around the July 4 holiday last year, including in Texas. Skeleton MSM and weather crews missed it.

TWC has been broadcasting programs about lobster fisherman and ice truckers instead of the deadly flooding weather in the Hill Country.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/s ... &length=24

CNN is running flood news non-stop.

[Rip76]

Texas radar starting to light up.

[Stratton20]

Unfortunately storms are agaib forming in the absolute worst areas possible, kerrville might get hit hard again, this wet pattern can truely piss off for central texas, just absolutely gut wrenching to think more rain could fall in some of the hardest hit areas

[DoctorMu]

Clouds and rain are still around CLL, despite a 10% chance of rain forecast and forecast by HGX yesterday that the low would be gone. Lots of rain in the Hill Country NW of Waco, including Granbury.

This warm core low has not given up the ghost yet. To be fair, post, ghostly tropical systems and moisture as we know maintain energy that causes damage many after landfall. The NC mountains found that out first hand with Helene...although NWS forecasts were of great concern.

Keep in mind that Beryl's forecast and damage really snuck up on some of the forecasters and people around the July 4 holiday last year, including in Texas. Skeleton MSM and weather crews missed it.

TWC has been broadcasting programs about lobster fisherman and ice truckers instead of the deadly flooding weather in the Hill Country.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/s ... &length=24

CNN is running flood news non-stop.

Now, they are - CNN follows shiny objects.

[DoctorMu]

Texas radar starting to light up.

Yeah, this warm core system is damn stubborn...and has enough energy to leverage daytime heating.

Indeed, Kerrville has another flood warning.