July 2025
Besides maybe the CMC at times, the long range global models have been close to useless for all intents and purposes. Last week all of the models, outside of the CMC like I illustrated yesterday, depicted a hot and dry weather pattern over the majority of Central and SE TX this week through July 4th. I distinctly remember David Tillman suggesting last week we may not see any rain for 10 days straight or longer, yet here we are.
I very much think that models have a "dry bias" over Texas during summer. Even the recent NWS discussion (morning) made note of this.869MB wrote: ↑Sat Jul 05, 2025 3:48 pm Besides maybe the CMC at times, the long range global models have been close to useless for all intents and purposes. Last week all of the models, outside of the CMC like I illustrated yesterday, depicted a hot and dry weather pattern over the majority of Central and SE TX this week through July 4th. I distinctly remember David Tillman suggesting last week we may not see any rain for 10 days straight or longer, yet here we are.
I just can't anymore with social media. I'm pretty well convinced the average person is functionally brain damaged with some of the BS I've seen spewed online.
Understaffing a NWS (Houston down 44%) and reduced weather ballon launchings are impacting modeling.
The Euro may be less affected. TWC picked up on increased rain chances and amount of rain than NWS, models, mesos. The cuts are costing more in dollars and lives than any savings.
The Euro may be less affected. TWC picked up on increased rain chances and amount of rain than NWS, models, mesos. The cuts are costing more in dollars and lives than any savings.
Should mention that occurrence around the holidays doesn’t help in staffing and accuracy.
Clouds and rain are still around CLL, despite a 10% chance of rain forecast and forecast by HGX yesterday that the low would be gone. Lots of rain in the Hill Country NW of Waco, including Granbury.
This warm core low has not given up the ghost yet. To be fair, post, ghostly tropical systems and moisture as we know maintain energy that causes damage many after landfall. The NC mountains found that out first hand with Helene...although NWS forecasts were of great concern.
Keep in mind that Beryl's forecast and damage really snuck up on some of the forecasters and people around the July 4 holiday last year, including in Texas. Skeleton MSM and weather crews missed it.
TWC has been broadcasting programs about lobster fisherman and ice truckers instead of the deadly flooding weather in the Hill Country.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/s ... &length=24
This warm core low has not given up the ghost yet. To be fair, post, ghostly tropical systems and moisture as we know maintain energy that causes damage many after landfall. The NC mountains found that out first hand with Helene...although NWS forecasts were of great concern.
Keep in mind that Beryl's forecast and damage really snuck up on some of the forecasters and people around the July 4 holiday last year, including in Texas. Skeleton MSM and weather crews missed it.
TWC has been broadcasting programs about lobster fisherman and ice truckers instead of the deadly flooding weather in the Hill Country.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/s ... &length=24