Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1152 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
...New LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
We remain within a fairly benign pattern over the next 36 hours or
so, with continued warm and humid conditions accompanied by fairly
widespread cloud cover expected to prevail in the immediate term.
High temperatures thus far this afternoon have risen into the
lower 80s as of 330 PM CDT, perhaps running a few degrees lower
than expected due to a slight overperformance of cloud cover.
Breezy conditions also have developed this afternoon, with wind
gusts approaching 25 mph area-wide. Winds should relax with the
loss of diurnal heating this evening, accompanied by an expansion
of low stratus that will work to inhibit radiative cooling. Low
temperatures should follow that of the past few days, with most
locations around 70 (75 at the immediate coast). Some overnight
fog development is possible, but winds should remain high enough
to mitigate any widespread and/or dense fog. Still, typically
prone areas could see some reduced visibility around sunrise.
It`s effectively a persistence forecast tomorrow ahead of our next
potentially active period on Wednesday with highs expected to
reach the low 80s at the coast and the mid 80s further inland. The
prevailing midlevel ridge will begin to break down heading into
Tuesday night, but the arrival of a fairly robust shortwave isn`t
expected until Wednesday (more on that below). Another night of
lows in the lower 70s is on the cards yet again.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
With mid-upper trof making further eastward progress away from the
area, the upper pattern will transition to a more quasi-zonal
flow - but still allowing for scattered diurnally driven precip
Thursday. Shower/tstm chances increase Friday and Friday night as
a weak, slow moving frontal boundary moves closer and eventually into
SE TX and serve as a focusing mechanism for precip. This boundary
should make it close to the coast by Saturday morning then
eventually put on the brakes as it loses support (unless mesoscale
driven) for a further southward push. Slightly cooler/drier
airmass is anticipated for a short while north of the front, but
with pooling deeper moisture to its south returning back inland,
southern and swrn parts of the CWA can probably expect some continued
rain chances on Sat. As the next upper trof taking shape to our
west, a building ridge should suppress, but not completely
eliminate, chances of shra/tstms somewhat Sunday & Monday. 47
&&
April 2025
It looks like the same long-term forecast, but wave/low ejects out but cold front sags in. FROPA naturally tanks at the coast but will trigger showers. Enjoy!
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
723 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 719 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025
Ridging across the Southern Plains/SE/E CONUS continues to shift
eastward today as closed low approaches from the Desert Southwest.
Subsidence and dry mid-lower levels should work to suppress rainfall
today, though modest PWs and weak impulses preceding the low will
keep rain chances from being zero. This especially during the
afternoon hours as daytime heating destabilizes the environment.
Warm conditions are still on the tap for today with highs in the 80s
and lows in the upper 60s/70s. The tightening pressure gradient from
the approaching disturbance should keep breezy southeasterly winds
in place through mid week. Paired with the partly to mostly cloudy
skies, this should make for fairly comfortable weather.
Wednesday should start to see more active weather as the
aforementioned low/upper level trough pushes into the Southern
Plains/Texas. A 25-30 knot LLJ sets up over SE Texas, with the jet
axis positioned north/northeast of our area. Parameter space for
this environment shows overall lower CIN than the day prior with
greater instability. HREF has ML CAPE ranging from 1300-2200 J/KG
with SFC CAPE around 1500-2700 J/KG. 0-6KM Shear climbs above 35
knots, though cloud-layer shear remains rather low. Midlevel lapse
rates range from 7.0-7.5 DegC/km, though the freezing level and WBZ
level are rather high. HREF model updraft helicity paint balls
greater than 25m2/s2 largely keep north of our CWA, with only a
few individual models showing clusters near the Brazos
Valley/Piney Wood area. Besides shortwaves impulses, a weak cold
front will also be approaching SE Texas late Wednesday night.
Interestingly enough, the 06z HRRR places this boundary further
south than currently depicted in the current NBM/HREF. Broader
models trends suggest that it`ll slow/stall, with convection
petering out through the early morning hours of Thursday, though
it`s exact positioning is less certain for the moment.
The Storm Prediction Center has areas north of I-10/US-59 under a
Marginal (level 1/5) Risk of Severe Weather. These areas are also
under a Slight (level 2/4) to Marginal (level 1/4) risk for
Excessive rainfall on Wednesday. These storms could produce
damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall, as well as large
hail to a slightly lesser degree. Still, the severe risk is
overall not very large given the lack of forcing available, so
it`s likely that we may only see scattered showers/storms with
only a few stronger storms pulsing up. The heavy rainfall threat
now looks more credible given the potential for the weak cold
front to stall out over our northern counties.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
With mid-upper trof making further eastward progress away from the
area, the upper pattern will transition to a more quasi-zonal
flow - but still allowing for scattered diurnally driven precip
Thursday. Shower/tstm chances increase Friday and Friday night as
a weak, slow moving frontal boundary moves closer and eventually into
SE TX and serve as a focusing mechanism for precip. This boundary
should make it close to the coast by Saturday morning then
eventually put on the brakes as it loses support (unless mesoscale
driven) for a further southward push. Slightly cooler/drier
airmass is anticipated for a short while north of the front, but
with pooling deeper moisture to its south returning back inland,
southern and swrn parts of the CWA can probably expect some continued
rain chances on Sat. As the next upper trof taking shape to our
west, a building ridge should suppress, but not completely
eliminate, chances of shra/tstms somewhat Sunday & Monday. 47
&&
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
723 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 719 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025
Ridging across the Southern Plains/SE/E CONUS continues to shift
eastward today as closed low approaches from the Desert Southwest.
Subsidence and dry mid-lower levels should work to suppress rainfall
today, though modest PWs and weak impulses preceding the low will
keep rain chances from being zero. This especially during the
afternoon hours as daytime heating destabilizes the environment.
Warm conditions are still on the tap for today with highs in the 80s
and lows in the upper 60s/70s. The tightening pressure gradient from
the approaching disturbance should keep breezy southeasterly winds
in place through mid week. Paired with the partly to mostly cloudy
skies, this should make for fairly comfortable weather.
Wednesday should start to see more active weather as the
aforementioned low/upper level trough pushes into the Southern
Plains/Texas. A 25-30 knot LLJ sets up over SE Texas, with the jet
axis positioned north/northeast of our area. Parameter space for
this environment shows overall lower CIN than the day prior with
greater instability. HREF has ML CAPE ranging from 1300-2200 J/KG
with SFC CAPE around 1500-2700 J/KG. 0-6KM Shear climbs above 35
knots, though cloud-layer shear remains rather low. Midlevel lapse
rates range from 7.0-7.5 DegC/km, though the freezing level and WBZ
level are rather high. HREF model updraft helicity paint balls
greater than 25m2/s2 largely keep north of our CWA, with only a
few individual models showing clusters near the Brazos
Valley/Piney Wood area. Besides shortwaves impulses, a weak cold
front will also be approaching SE Texas late Wednesday night.
Interestingly enough, the 06z HRRR places this boundary further
south than currently depicted in the current NBM/HREF. Broader
models trends suggest that it`ll slow/stall, with convection
petering out through the early morning hours of Thursday, though
it`s exact positioning is less certain for the moment.
The Storm Prediction Center has areas north of I-10/US-59 under a
Marginal (level 1/5) Risk of Severe Weather. These areas are also
under a Slight (level 2/4) to Marginal (level 1/4) risk for
Excessive rainfall on Wednesday. These storms could produce
damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall, as well as large
hail to a slightly lesser degree. Still, the severe risk is
overall not very large given the lack of forcing available, so
it`s likely that we may only see scattered showers/storms with
only a few stronger storms pulsing up. The heavy rainfall threat
now looks more credible given the potential for the weak cold
front to stall out over our northern counties.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
With mid-upper trof making further eastward progress away from the
area, the upper pattern will transition to a more quasi-zonal
flow - but still allowing for scattered diurnally driven precip
Thursday. Shower/tstm chances increase Friday and Friday night as
a weak, slow moving frontal boundary moves closer and eventually into
SE TX and serve as a focusing mechanism for precip. This boundary
should make it close to the coast by Saturday morning then
eventually put on the brakes as it loses support (unless mesoscale
driven) for a further southward push. Slightly cooler/drier
airmass is anticipated for a short while north of the front, but
with pooling deeper moisture to its south returning back inland,
southern and swrn parts of the CWA can probably expect some continued
rain chances on Sat. As the next upper trof taking shape to our
west, a building ridge should suppress, but not completely
eliminate, chances of shra/tstms somewhat Sunday & Monday. 47
&&
Great 
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A little off topic, but I completely forgot WX had a Facebook page until a FB memory popped up today. Looks like no one has posted there since 2020.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
.
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025
VFR conditions will generally prevail over the course of the
afternoon and into the evening, with southeast winds at times
producing gusts in the 20-25 knot range. Winds will relax somewhat
overnight, but should remain elevated enough to inhibit the
development of widespread fog. MVFR cigs should return to the area
after sunset, and remain in place into tomorrow morning. Elevated
south to southeast winds develop once again by late morning.
Looking slightly beyond the TAF period, thunderstorm potential
returns to the forecast tomorrow evening as a frontal boundary
approaches the area.
Cady
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025
VFR conditions will generally prevail over the course of the
afternoon and into the evening, with southeast winds at times
producing gusts in the 20-25 knot range. Winds will relax somewhat
overnight, but should remain elevated enough to inhibit the
development of widespread fog. MVFR cigs should return to the area
after sunset, and remain in place into tomorrow morning. Elevated
south to southeast winds develop once again by late morning.
Looking slightly beyond the TAF period, thunderstorm potential
returns to the forecast tomorrow evening as a frontal boundary
approaches the area.
Cady
&&
up and down for maintenance thru Thursday (mostly down)
What a night, the supercell that just moved over the city was one of the strongest I've experienced. Warning on top of warnings. With high water rescues ongoing now. And we have multiple rounds of heavy rain to go through the night.
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The storm chasers were following the cell from Seymour. Hope everyone is OK there.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Yes, I hope they are OK. We shall get a full report from Don later. So, I am studying Meteorology, slowly but surely. In all of my reading, I have never come across this nugget. My phone weather app ( no, I don't pay attention to it..lol), stated " light thunderstorm". I wonder what that is. Lol
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
633
FXUS64 KHGX 301105
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
605 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025
Today will be more active weather-wise, courtesy of a mid/upper
level trough pushing east across the Southern Plains/Desert
Southwest. Deep moisture coinciding with a 20-30 knot LLJ over the
area should initially bring some WAA showers over our western
counties, spreading eastward throughout the day. Isolated
thunderstorms become more feasible throughout the afternoon as we
reach peak heating, though short-range model guidance has trended
toward lower activity during this afternoon period. Still, this
environment features ample instability with SFC CAPE around 2000-
2700 J/KG and CIN values over -10 J/KG. 0-6km wind shear around 30-
40 knots should provide sufficient organization necessary to produce
stronger storms. Forecast soundings indicate higher precipitation
efficiency as we often see here in SE Texas, suggesting the
potential for stronger downpours. While instability will wane this
evening, high-resolution models continue to show a stronger, more
organized line of thunderstorms reaching SE Texas not long after
midnight, reaching as far south as Galveston Bay before dissipating
Thursday morning. The HRRR continues to depict a more potent
solution compared to other model guidance, though notably it was
first to pick up on this organized line yesterday, with rather
consistent outputs between model runs.
For both today and Thursday, SPC has a Marginal to Slight Risk
(levels 1/5 to 2/5) of severe weather, with WPC placing a Marginal
to Slight Risk (levels 1/4 to 2/4) of excessive rainfall over much
of the same area, especially further north over the Brazos
Valley/Piney Wood area. All severe/rainfall hazards are on the table
for today through this evening, with damaging winds and locally
heavy rainfall becoming the primary concerns overnight into Thursday
as the convective line pushes south.
There should be a lull in rainfall from the mid morning to the early
afternoon on Thursday with another round of showers/storms from the
late afternoon through late Thursday night. Much of this activity
should be concentrated north of the I-10 corridor. The risk of
severe weather & excessive rainfall should be trending downwards
throughout this time frame as the aforementioned trough departs to
the northeast.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase as we head through
the day Friday and Friday night as a weak frontal boundary sags
into the area and serves as a llvl focusing mechanism. This
boundary will probably make it somewhere close to the coast early
Saturday morning then stall as the push of high pressure behind it
moves off to the east versus south. Locations north of the
boundary will see a brief period of cooler & drier wx for the
first part of the day Sat, but deeper moisture pooling to its
south will begin lifting again as the day wears on. Combined with
a somewhat messy quasi-zonal flow, would anticipate the
possibility of additional scattered precip to re-develop inland
later in the day.
The next West Coast trof will track across CA and toward the Four
Corners area Sun-Tue. We`ll see some mid level ridging take shape
locally in advance which should generally lead to to warmer
conditions and lower chances of rainfall.
47
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025
MVFR CIGS/Cloud Decks are currently in place across much of SE
Texas with light showers filling inland from the coast. Expect
broader improvements in CIGS later this morning after sunrise
while gusty S/SE winds set in with VFR conditions returning this
afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms, some strong to severe, could
develop over portions of SE Texas during the afternoon. A brief
lull in showers/storm activity is possible during the late
afternoon/early evening as daytime heating wanes. A convective
line of thunderstorms should push into southeast Texas late
tonight through early Thursday morning. Storms along this line may
also become strong to severe at times. MVFR CIGS are expected to
fill in across the region again during this overnight period.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025
A somewhat tight pressure gradient between high pressure to our
east and lower pressure to our west will lead to moderate onshore
winds, 4-7ft seas and above normal tides through midweek. Expect
periods of caution flag and/or advisory level conditions with
speeds lingering around 20kt +/-5kt into Wed night-Thurs. There
will be a high risk of rip currents along area beaches. Water
levels will also be running above normal, but generally peak below
levels typically seen with coastal flood concerns. Chances for
showers and storms return later Friday into Saturday as a weak
front sags toward the coast.
47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 68 87 69 / 40 70 20 20
Houston (IAH) 83 71 86 71 / 40 70 40 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 75 81 75 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330-
335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...03
MARINE...47
FXUS64 KHGX 301105
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
605 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025
Today will be more active weather-wise, courtesy of a mid/upper
level trough pushing east across the Southern Plains/Desert
Southwest. Deep moisture coinciding with a 20-30 knot LLJ over the
area should initially bring some WAA showers over our western
counties, spreading eastward throughout the day. Isolated
thunderstorms become more feasible throughout the afternoon as we
reach peak heating, though short-range model guidance has trended
toward lower activity during this afternoon period. Still, this
environment features ample instability with SFC CAPE around 2000-
2700 J/KG and CIN values over -10 J/KG. 0-6km wind shear around 30-
40 knots should provide sufficient organization necessary to produce
stronger storms. Forecast soundings indicate higher precipitation
efficiency as we often see here in SE Texas, suggesting the
potential for stronger downpours. While instability will wane this
evening, high-resolution models continue to show a stronger, more
organized line of thunderstorms reaching SE Texas not long after
midnight, reaching as far south as Galveston Bay before dissipating
Thursday morning. The HRRR continues to depict a more potent
solution compared to other model guidance, though notably it was
first to pick up on this organized line yesterday, with rather
consistent outputs between model runs.
For both today and Thursday, SPC has a Marginal to Slight Risk
(levels 1/5 to 2/5) of severe weather, with WPC placing a Marginal
to Slight Risk (levels 1/4 to 2/4) of excessive rainfall over much
of the same area, especially further north over the Brazos
Valley/Piney Wood area. All severe/rainfall hazards are on the table
for today through this evening, with damaging winds and locally
heavy rainfall becoming the primary concerns overnight into Thursday
as the convective line pushes south.
There should be a lull in rainfall from the mid morning to the early
afternoon on Thursday with another round of showers/storms from the
late afternoon through late Thursday night. Much of this activity
should be concentrated north of the I-10 corridor. The risk of
severe weather & excessive rainfall should be trending downwards
throughout this time frame as the aforementioned trough departs to
the northeast.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase as we head through
the day Friday and Friday night as a weak frontal boundary sags
into the area and serves as a llvl focusing mechanism. This
boundary will probably make it somewhere close to the coast early
Saturday morning then stall as the push of high pressure behind it
moves off to the east versus south. Locations north of the
boundary will see a brief period of cooler & drier wx for the
first part of the day Sat, but deeper moisture pooling to its
south will begin lifting again as the day wears on. Combined with
a somewhat messy quasi-zonal flow, would anticipate the
possibility of additional scattered precip to re-develop inland
later in the day.
The next West Coast trof will track across CA and toward the Four
Corners area Sun-Tue. We`ll see some mid level ridging take shape
locally in advance which should generally lead to to warmer
conditions and lower chances of rainfall.
47
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025
MVFR CIGS/Cloud Decks are currently in place across much of SE
Texas with light showers filling inland from the coast. Expect
broader improvements in CIGS later this morning after sunrise
while gusty S/SE winds set in with VFR conditions returning this
afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms, some strong to severe, could
develop over portions of SE Texas during the afternoon. A brief
lull in showers/storm activity is possible during the late
afternoon/early evening as daytime heating wanes. A convective
line of thunderstorms should push into southeast Texas late
tonight through early Thursday morning. Storms along this line may
also become strong to severe at times. MVFR CIGS are expected to
fill in across the region again during this overnight period.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025
A somewhat tight pressure gradient between high pressure to our
east and lower pressure to our west will lead to moderate onshore
winds, 4-7ft seas and above normal tides through midweek. Expect
periods of caution flag and/or advisory level conditions with
speeds lingering around 20kt +/-5kt into Wed night-Thurs. There
will be a high risk of rip currents along area beaches. Water
levels will also be running above normal, but generally peak below
levels typically seen with coastal flood concerns. Chances for
showers and storms return later Friday into Saturday as a weak
front sags toward the coast.
47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 68 87 69 / 40 70 20 20
Houston (IAH) 83 71 86 71 / 40 70 40 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 75 81 75 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330-
335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...03
MARINE...47
I’m still not convinced we’re gonna get much of anything south of I-10 over the next week or so.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
I wouldnt be so sure about that, GFS/ Euro have a cut off low completely stalling out over texas next week, for a good 4-5-6 days, no point in talking about totals this far out, but that kind of a pattern would absolutely lead to more widespread rains across central and se texas
A couple of small streamer showers have cruised by. Nothing significant yet. 0.15 inches at the casa.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Some spotty showers on radar, north texas getting clobbered though, ignoring the operational runs at this range, but ensembles are definitely trending wetter for se texas next week
Based on the accumulated precip forecast for ensemble runs, looks like most of Texas (especially Central, West, and South Texas) can kiss the lingering drought goodbye after next week.
WPC 7 day forecast doesn’t look like much for most of SE TX. Only has me getting .75” over that period.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Im betting they increase the QPF overnight, the 12z Ensembles came im wetter, in particular the 12z GEFS, 00z GEFS was 1-2 inches for se texas, 12z run doubled that to 2-4