April 2025
Good news. If my lawn and new plants can hang on until the weekend. I hate watering before June!
NOAA has increased our chances Friday and Saturday to 50% and 70%. However, most of the heavy stuff still looks north and east of here on the global models.
Ensembles agree. I'll probably cave and water tomorrow.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It seems like that part of the country always gets a ton of action. I don’t think they’ve ever had to worry about a bad drought.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Mar 31, 2025 3:14 pmGood news. If my lawn and new plants can hang on until the weekend. I hate watering before June!
NOAA has increased our chances Friday and Saturday to 50% and 70%. However, most of the heavy stuff still looks north and east of here on the global models.
Ensembles agree. I'll probably cave and water tomorrow.
I am sure they have had droughts before. It can happen anywhere.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 31, 2025 4:08 pmIt seems like that part of the country always gets a ton of action. I don’t think they’ve ever had to worry about a bad drought.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Mar 31, 2025 3:14 pmGood news. If my lawn and new plants can hang on until the weekend. I hate watering before June!
NOAA has increased our chances Friday and Saturday to 50% and 70%. However, most of the heavy stuff still looks north and east of here on the global models.
Ensembles agree. I'll probably cave and water tomorrow.
Yes, but they’re much less frequent in that area of the country.Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Mon Mar 31, 2025 8:38 pmI am sure they have had droughts before. It can happen anywhere.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 31, 2025 4:08 pmIt seems like that part of the country always gets a ton of action. I don’t think they’ve ever had to worry about a bad drought.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Mar 31, 2025 3:14 pm
Good news. If my lawn and new plants can hang on until the weekend. I hate watering before June!
NOAA has increased our chances Friday and Saturday to 50% and 70%. However, most of the heavy stuff still looks north and east of here on the global models.
Ensembles agree. I'll probably cave and water tomorrow.
I can tell you that - aside from 2011 and some spotty months in the past several years - south Louisiana (my old stomping grounds) has never even thought of being in a drought.
Even when we are begging for rain in the HOU metro area, Beaumont on east along the I-10 corridor is never wanting for rain.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
484
FXUS64 KHGX 011056
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
556 AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 0130AM AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025
Today`s forecast high temperatures and cloud cover has turned out
to be a little trickier than I bargained for. First, let`s talk
about the model guidance. If fcst soundings are to be believed,
then much of the region could hold on to a relatively persistent
broken to overcast low-level cloud deck through the day. Low
clouds and patchy fog can be seen expanding northward from the
Gulf on NT microphysics imagery as a type this AFD a little after
1 o`clock in the morning. In addition, some Pacific moisture
could throw some higher level clouds our way as well. However,
temperature observations along with recent precedent suggest that
we may not want to trust the model`s predicted LL thermodynamic
profile. A warmer sfc would destabilize the LL`s enough to mix
down the drier mid-level air, resulting in a more broken to scattered
cloud deck this afternoon as opposed to an outright overcast.
This would allow a little more sunshine peeking through the clouds and
warmer temperatures. My forecast leans a little more in the
warmer direction than the overcast and less warm scenario. A
steepening gradient thanks to a deepening low over the Central
Plains will result in increasing southeast winds, making it a
breezy and humid day. I have pondered if strong enough onshore
flow could limit warming and allow our cloudier scenario to
prevail, but I still decided to mix in some 75th percentile NBM
with the regular NBM to bias our temperatures a little warmer than
model guidance consensus (generally low/mid 80s). If it stays
very cloudy, you can chop off a few degrees from my temperatures.
If it clears out more than I think, you can probably add a few
degrees. Regardless, it will be humid, increasingly breezy, and
relatively warm. Don`t expect a significant drop off in
temperatures Tuesday night. Current forecast for Wednesday morning
lows is generally in the low 70s.
The aforementioned low`s trailing cold front will approach our
area on Wednesday, likely struggling to reach SE Texas. However,
we do think the southeast Texas atmosphere will feature a strongly
sheared, veering wind profile along with high LL moisture and
instability. The only problem for those who love thunderstorms is
that fcst soundings are showing one heck of a cap between 800 and
700 MB. IF any updrafts were able to overcome this cap (or if
capping is weaker), then strong to severe thunderstorms would be
possible. However, you may or may not have noticed that SPC has
our northern counties in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe
weather on Wednesday. This is because capping will be weaker and
more prone to being eroded across our northern CWA. IF severe
storms develop, then hail, damaging wind gusts, and even a tornado
could not be ruled out. Temperatures wise, Wednesday is looking
very warm and humid with highs well into the 80s. Heat index
values may be well into the 90s. However, the strong southerly
breeze will likely take a bite out of the heat.
Self
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025
Going into Thursday, we`ll have our eyes centered on the western
CONUS as southwesterly flow aloft is steadily amplified due to an
upper level trough steadily dragging southward down into
northwestern Mexico. As a result of the amplified southwesterlies
aloft, we`ll be in position for a steady stream of PVA from embedded
shortwaves. Combine this with a frontal boundary lingering just
north of Southeast Texas and PW values near or exceeding the 90th
percentile (~1.49") due to strengthening onshore flow, and we have a
favorable setup for showers/storms. Now initially this is going to
impact the Brazos Valley/the Piney Woods on Thursday and most of
Friday. As we head into late Friday and the early part of the
weekend, the cold front will push further southward thus increasing
shower/storm chances for the rest of Southeast Texas. This will be a
real cold front too...we`ll talk about post-FROPA temperatures a
little bit later.
First we gotta talk about Saturday since there are a few hints that
we could see some strong storms. Deterministic model guidance shows
a rather robust LLJ tying in with instability, moisture ahead of the
front, and the front and a passing upper level low acting as the
sources of lift. Speaking of the LLJ, it`ll be prevalent on Thursday
and Friday leading to gusty winds in the afternoon...so don`t be
surprised to see a Wind Advisory at some point. The ingredients look
like they`ll be there, but it`s way too early to call it a sure bet.
It will definitely be worth keeping an eye on though throughout the
week...monitor trends and stay up to date on the latest forecasts.
The cold front itself looks to push in midday-ish on Saturday, but
again that timing can and probably will fluctuate. Rain chances are
gone behind the front as surface high pressure builds in during the
latter half of the weekend along with cooler and drier air.
Now let`s talk temperatures! We start out the long term period in
the mid to upper 80s on Thursday and Friday...and it wouldn`t be a
total surprise to see some locations reach the low 90s with 850mb
temperatures at or above the 90th percentile. This is a good time to
mention that our low temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s on
these nights, which is fairly close to our normal high
temperature...use your imagination to visualize the humidity on
these nights. The good news is behind Saturday`s cold front we`re
looking at high temperatures only in the 60s on Sunday for the first
time since the beginning of the month. Low temperatures will be
below normal for once reaching down into the 40s/50s. Will this be
the last real cold front we get? No clue...but we will be in the
first week of April so we`re at least approaching FROPA-less
territory. I`m planning on taking full advantage of the cooler air
just in case!
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025
Forecast cigs are more uncertain than normal today. Low clouds and
patchy fog are pushing northward from the Gulf this morning. We
expect MVFR cigs to overspread the region from south to north over
the next few hours. Some areas will manage to drop to IFR,
especially near the coast. Most guidance keeps MVFR cigs through
the day. But a relatively small change in the temperature profile
of the amtopshere could easily scatter out the deck, resulting in
a period of low-end VFR this afternoon, especially north of I-10.
Winds will be increase from the SE throughout the day, likely
gusting over 20 knots by the afternoon in many areas. Winds are
expected to increase overnight. Cigs are expected to fall this
evening. For now, we have mostly low-end MVFR in the TAFs for
tonight. But we could not rule out IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Apr 1 2025
Patchy sea fog has begun to develop in the coastal waters and
southern bays and is expected to spread further northward and become
increasingly denser later tonight into Tuesday morning. A Marine
Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the bays and coastal waters
through Tuesday morning. Winds will become northeasterly later
tonight as cold front lingers near the coast, but onshore flow
returns on Tuesday and persists through the remainder of the week
with speeds gradually increasing. Caution flags will likely be
needed as early as Tuesday afternoon and Small Craft Advisories may
be needed by early Wednesday. The strengthening onshore flow should
act as an inhibitor for the sea fog...but it will carry the
potential for minor coastal flooding along Gulf-facing beaches
during times of high tide along with increasing risk of rip currents
midweek and beyond. Look for increasing chances of showers/storms
heading into the weekend as a cold front approaches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 70 85 72 / 0 0 30 10
Houston (IAH) 83 71 87 74 / 0 0 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 80 71 81 72 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335-
350-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT
Thursday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Batiste
FXUS64 KHGX 011056
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
556 AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 0130AM AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025
Today`s forecast high temperatures and cloud cover has turned out
to be a little trickier than I bargained for. First, let`s talk
about the model guidance. If fcst soundings are to be believed,
then much of the region could hold on to a relatively persistent
broken to overcast low-level cloud deck through the day. Low
clouds and patchy fog can be seen expanding northward from the
Gulf on NT microphysics imagery as a type this AFD a little after
1 o`clock in the morning. In addition, some Pacific moisture
could throw some higher level clouds our way as well. However,
temperature observations along with recent precedent suggest that
we may not want to trust the model`s predicted LL thermodynamic
profile. A warmer sfc would destabilize the LL`s enough to mix
down the drier mid-level air, resulting in a more broken to scattered
cloud deck this afternoon as opposed to an outright overcast.
This would allow a little more sunshine peeking through the clouds and
warmer temperatures. My forecast leans a little more in the
warmer direction than the overcast and less warm scenario. A
steepening gradient thanks to a deepening low over the Central
Plains will result in increasing southeast winds, making it a
breezy and humid day. I have pondered if strong enough onshore
flow could limit warming and allow our cloudier scenario to
prevail, but I still decided to mix in some 75th percentile NBM
with the regular NBM to bias our temperatures a little warmer than
model guidance consensus (generally low/mid 80s). If it stays
very cloudy, you can chop off a few degrees from my temperatures.
If it clears out more than I think, you can probably add a few
degrees. Regardless, it will be humid, increasingly breezy, and
relatively warm. Don`t expect a significant drop off in
temperatures Tuesday night. Current forecast for Wednesday morning
lows is generally in the low 70s.
The aforementioned low`s trailing cold front will approach our
area on Wednesday, likely struggling to reach SE Texas. However,
we do think the southeast Texas atmosphere will feature a strongly
sheared, veering wind profile along with high LL moisture and
instability. The only problem for those who love thunderstorms is
that fcst soundings are showing one heck of a cap between 800 and
700 MB. IF any updrafts were able to overcome this cap (or if
capping is weaker), then strong to severe thunderstorms would be
possible. However, you may or may not have noticed that SPC has
our northern counties in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe
weather on Wednesday. This is because capping will be weaker and
more prone to being eroded across our northern CWA. IF severe
storms develop, then hail, damaging wind gusts, and even a tornado
could not be ruled out. Temperatures wise, Wednesday is looking
very warm and humid with highs well into the 80s. Heat index
values may be well into the 90s. However, the strong southerly
breeze will likely take a bite out of the heat.
Self
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025
Going into Thursday, we`ll have our eyes centered on the western
CONUS as southwesterly flow aloft is steadily amplified due to an
upper level trough steadily dragging southward down into
northwestern Mexico. As a result of the amplified southwesterlies
aloft, we`ll be in position for a steady stream of PVA from embedded
shortwaves. Combine this with a frontal boundary lingering just
north of Southeast Texas and PW values near or exceeding the 90th
percentile (~1.49") due to strengthening onshore flow, and we have a
favorable setup for showers/storms. Now initially this is going to
impact the Brazos Valley/the Piney Woods on Thursday and most of
Friday. As we head into late Friday and the early part of the
weekend, the cold front will push further southward thus increasing
shower/storm chances for the rest of Southeast Texas. This will be a
real cold front too...we`ll talk about post-FROPA temperatures a
little bit later.
First we gotta talk about Saturday since there are a few hints that
we could see some strong storms. Deterministic model guidance shows
a rather robust LLJ tying in with instability, moisture ahead of the
front, and the front and a passing upper level low acting as the
sources of lift. Speaking of the LLJ, it`ll be prevalent on Thursday
and Friday leading to gusty winds in the afternoon...so don`t be
surprised to see a Wind Advisory at some point. The ingredients look
like they`ll be there, but it`s way too early to call it a sure bet.
It will definitely be worth keeping an eye on though throughout the
week...monitor trends and stay up to date on the latest forecasts.
The cold front itself looks to push in midday-ish on Saturday, but
again that timing can and probably will fluctuate. Rain chances are
gone behind the front as surface high pressure builds in during the
latter half of the weekend along with cooler and drier air.
Now let`s talk temperatures! We start out the long term period in
the mid to upper 80s on Thursday and Friday...and it wouldn`t be a
total surprise to see some locations reach the low 90s with 850mb
temperatures at or above the 90th percentile. This is a good time to
mention that our low temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s on
these nights, which is fairly close to our normal high
temperature...use your imagination to visualize the humidity on
these nights. The good news is behind Saturday`s cold front we`re
looking at high temperatures only in the 60s on Sunday for the first
time since the beginning of the month. Low temperatures will be
below normal for once reaching down into the 40s/50s. Will this be
the last real cold front we get? No clue...but we will be in the
first week of April so we`re at least approaching FROPA-less
territory. I`m planning on taking full advantage of the cooler air
just in case!
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025
Forecast cigs are more uncertain than normal today. Low clouds and
patchy fog are pushing northward from the Gulf this morning. We
expect MVFR cigs to overspread the region from south to north over
the next few hours. Some areas will manage to drop to IFR,
especially near the coast. Most guidance keeps MVFR cigs through
the day. But a relatively small change in the temperature profile
of the amtopshere could easily scatter out the deck, resulting in
a period of low-end VFR this afternoon, especially north of I-10.
Winds will be increase from the SE throughout the day, likely
gusting over 20 knots by the afternoon in many areas. Winds are
expected to increase overnight. Cigs are expected to fall this
evening. For now, we have mostly low-end MVFR in the TAFs for
tonight. But we could not rule out IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Apr 1 2025
Patchy sea fog has begun to develop in the coastal waters and
southern bays and is expected to spread further northward and become
increasingly denser later tonight into Tuesday morning. A Marine
Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the bays and coastal waters
through Tuesday morning. Winds will become northeasterly later
tonight as cold front lingers near the coast, but onshore flow
returns on Tuesday and persists through the remainder of the week
with speeds gradually increasing. Caution flags will likely be
needed as early as Tuesday afternoon and Small Craft Advisories may
be needed by early Wednesday. The strengthening onshore flow should
act as an inhibitor for the sea fog...but it will carry the
potential for minor coastal flooding along Gulf-facing beaches
during times of high tide along with increasing risk of rip currents
midweek and beyond. Look for increasing chances of showers/storms
heading into the weekend as a cold front approaches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 70 85 72 / 0 0 30 10
Houston (IAH) 83 71 87 74 / 0 0 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 80 71 81 72 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335-
350-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT
Thursday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Batiste
Stay cloudy! Since humid air is infiltrating...gotta keep the sprinklers and A/C on STUN.
Model update - probably some light rain in CLL this weekend (Friday/Saturday). Looks like a bust south of Brenham.
That FROPA will bring a dramatic change in the temps and weather.
That FROPA will bring a dramatic change in the temps and weather.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Drought and corn in KentuckyPas_Bon wrote: ↑Tue Apr 01, 2025 9:03 amI can tell you that - aside from 2011 and some spotty months in the past several years - south Louisiana (my old stomping grounds) has never even thought of being in a drought.
Even when we are begging for rain in the HOU metro area, Beaumont on east along the I-10 corridor is never wanting for rain.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... and%202007.
Six severe droughts in Kentucky going back to 1930.
Drought History For Louisiana’s 9 Regions
https://southcentralclimate.org/wp-cont ... istory.pdf
The 1896 Drought: How does 2023 compare?
https://lincolnparishjournal.com/2023/1 ... 3-compare/
Louisiana has had droughts as well. The most recent in 2023.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
556
FXUS64 KHGX 021124
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
624 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
KEY POINTS:
1) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in
our northern counties today and tomorrow. An isolated stronger
thunderstorm capable of hail and damaging wind gusts cannot be
ruled out.
2) Gusty winds are likely today and tomorrow. A Wind Advisory is
in effect today. Winds could gust over 40 MPH at times.
The mid/upper pattern across CONUS has amplified, featuring deep
layer troughing out west, and a building ridge over E CONUS. The
trough has induced cyclogenesis in the Central Plains, which is
evident by the deepening sfc low that is progressing from Kansas
into Nebraska and Iowa today. The low is steepening the gradient
across SE TX, resulting in gusty southerly winds. These winds
could easily gust over 30 MPH and potentially over 40 MPH at times
today (especially in our southern and coastal counties). Given
the windy conditions at the sfc, it should be no surprised that
the vertical wind profile will be highly sheered. The profile will
also be veering, a signal of WAA. This WAA will be particularly
pronounced in the 800-700 MB layer, developing a stout cap over
the area. The cap may not be super strong early in the afternoon,
allowing some isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm
development. But as the cap strengthens, the potential for deeper
convection wanes. That being said, the cap will be weaker across
our northern counties, which might allow the formation of deeper
convection. Given the moisture, LL instability, and shear
parameters, we cannot rule out a few strong to severe
thunderstorms across our northern counties today. SPC currently
has a our northern counties in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for
severe storms capable of producing hail, damaging wind gusts, and
a tornado. Could not rule out thunderstorms farther south. But the
cap would need to be much weaker.
Much like yesterday, I`m looking at forecast soundings that love
the idea of persistent low clouds. My concern was that soundings
were a little too cool with LL temps and might be overdoing the
thickness of the LL cloud deck due to less predicted mixing.
Interestingly, my assumptions about the sfc temperatures were
correct (except in the Piney Woods), but the clouds held on
anyway. So I`m going to go with persistence forecasting when it
comes to clouds/temp trends. I lean into the cloudier forecast
soundings (still could be breaks in the clouds) while also biasing
my forecast warmer than the guidance, generally showing afternoon
highs in the mid/upper 80s with a few 90 degree spots here and
there. It will be quite humid as well but at least the breeze
will take a bite out of the heat. Overnight temps are only
expected to drop into the low/mid 70s.
Interestingly, we find ourselves in a similar environment on
Thursday. But this time, an area of low pressure is expected to
form much farther south. There should be a little more large scale
lift. Plus, forecast soundings are less aggressive with capping
(though still show no shortage of capping). SPC is indicating a
slightly higher risk of isolated severe thunderstorms tomorrow.
However, recent guidance has backed off on QPF / precip. So it may
be worth looking at SPC`s afternoon update for potential changes
to the outlook.
Self
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
KEY POINTS:
- Severe weather risk continues with the highest probabilities north
of I-10.
- Flooding potential increases this weekend.
- A significant drop in temperatures is expected early next week,
following the front.
Unsettled weather is expected as we move into the end of the work
week and the start of the weekend, with warm and humid conditions,
and a risk of severe weather and heavy rainfall. By Friday, the
quasi-stationary front will be extending to our northwest, along
north-central TX. At the same time, a surface trough will develop
along the northwestern Gulf. The dynamic continues aloft with
increasing PVA associated with an approaching low moving across the
southwestern CONUS/northern Mexico. This pattern of SW to S flow
aloft and southerly flow at the surface will continue to surge Gulf
moisture inland, and increase instability. Some isentropic lifting
can be found on the 300 K layer; therefore, expect partly to mostly
cloudy skies along with isolated to scattered showers and storms.
Daytime heating, decent shear, and instability will be capable of
producing a few strong storms, especially across our northwestern
counties. Will continue to monitor the severe weather potential.
The atmosphere becomes more favorable for showers and thunderstorms
Friday night into Saturday evening as the aforementioned front
begins to move southeastward into the region. Ahead of the front, PW
values remain into the 1.6 to 2.0 inch range, with increasing low to
mid lvl instability and strong bulk shear. On top of that, a strong
40 to 50 kt LLJ will develop ahead of the boundary, resulting in
more unstable conditions. Having said that, scattered showers and
storms are progged as the front moves through late Friday into
Saturday. A few of these storms will be capable of becoming strong
to severe with all severe weather hazards possible (damaging winds,
large hail, isolated tornadoes, locally heavy rainfall). SPC
continues to highlight this threat in their day 4 convective outlook
with a Slight Risk for areas generally north of I-10. Will continue
to monitor trends and the evolution of the mid-upper low Wed-Friday
as it may impact the potential for Saturday.
We have good news if you like cool weather. Well-below normal
temperatures are progged behind the front. Global models show 850 mb
temperatures in the single digits (degC) by Sunday. This suggests
highs mainly in the 60s, which is around 10 to 15 degF below normal
for this time of year. It will be a brief cool down as temperatures
will gradually climb into the 70s by early next week.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Generally MVFR cigs are expected through the TAF period, though we
may see periods of VFR cigs this afternoon. One of the primary
weather hazards of concern today will be the gusty southerly
winds. Sustained winds are expected to average 15 to 20 knots.
However, periods of higher winds with gusts over 30 knots are
likely, especially from the Houston area points south to the coast
later this morning and afternoon. Any improvement in cigs this
afternoon is expected to be short-lived, with cigs likely falling
this evening and tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Moderate to strong onshore winds and building seas are expected
today across the bays and Gulf waters in response to an approaching
slow-moving front. Hazardous marine conditions will continue through
the week and into the upcoming weekend with seas gradually building
up to 9-10+ ft offshore. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
and is now in effect through the end of the week. Rain and storms
will be on the increase this weekend along and ahead a cold front.
In addition to marine conditions, beach conditions will become
hazardous to dangerous with an increasing risk of high rip currents
and coastal flood risk. High water levels during times of high tide
will potentially lead to minor coastal flooding along Gulf-facing
beaches. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through this
evening. This statement will likely be extended through most of the
week.
JM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 72 88 73 / 30 0 30 20
Houston (IAH) 88 74 89 75 / 20 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 74 80 74 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ214-226-227-
235>238-313-335>338-436>439.
Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ330-335-350-
355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...JM
FXUS64 KHGX 021124
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
624 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
KEY POINTS:
1) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in
our northern counties today and tomorrow. An isolated stronger
thunderstorm capable of hail and damaging wind gusts cannot be
ruled out.
2) Gusty winds are likely today and tomorrow. A Wind Advisory is
in effect today. Winds could gust over 40 MPH at times.
The mid/upper pattern across CONUS has amplified, featuring deep
layer troughing out west, and a building ridge over E CONUS. The
trough has induced cyclogenesis in the Central Plains, which is
evident by the deepening sfc low that is progressing from Kansas
into Nebraska and Iowa today. The low is steepening the gradient
across SE TX, resulting in gusty southerly winds. These winds
could easily gust over 30 MPH and potentially over 40 MPH at times
today (especially in our southern and coastal counties). Given
the windy conditions at the sfc, it should be no surprised that
the vertical wind profile will be highly sheered. The profile will
also be veering, a signal of WAA. This WAA will be particularly
pronounced in the 800-700 MB layer, developing a stout cap over
the area. The cap may not be super strong early in the afternoon,
allowing some isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm
development. But as the cap strengthens, the potential for deeper
convection wanes. That being said, the cap will be weaker across
our northern counties, which might allow the formation of deeper
convection. Given the moisture, LL instability, and shear
parameters, we cannot rule out a few strong to severe
thunderstorms across our northern counties today. SPC currently
has a our northern counties in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for
severe storms capable of producing hail, damaging wind gusts, and
a tornado. Could not rule out thunderstorms farther south. But the
cap would need to be much weaker.
Much like yesterday, I`m looking at forecast soundings that love
the idea of persistent low clouds. My concern was that soundings
were a little too cool with LL temps and might be overdoing the
thickness of the LL cloud deck due to less predicted mixing.
Interestingly, my assumptions about the sfc temperatures were
correct (except in the Piney Woods), but the clouds held on
anyway. So I`m going to go with persistence forecasting when it
comes to clouds/temp trends. I lean into the cloudier forecast
soundings (still could be breaks in the clouds) while also biasing
my forecast warmer than the guidance, generally showing afternoon
highs in the mid/upper 80s with a few 90 degree spots here and
there. It will be quite humid as well but at least the breeze
will take a bite out of the heat. Overnight temps are only
expected to drop into the low/mid 70s.
Interestingly, we find ourselves in a similar environment on
Thursday. But this time, an area of low pressure is expected to
form much farther south. There should be a little more large scale
lift. Plus, forecast soundings are less aggressive with capping
(though still show no shortage of capping). SPC is indicating a
slightly higher risk of isolated severe thunderstorms tomorrow.
However, recent guidance has backed off on QPF / precip. So it may
be worth looking at SPC`s afternoon update for potential changes
to the outlook.
Self
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
KEY POINTS:
- Severe weather risk continues with the highest probabilities north
of I-10.
- Flooding potential increases this weekend.
- A significant drop in temperatures is expected early next week,
following the front.
Unsettled weather is expected as we move into the end of the work
week and the start of the weekend, with warm and humid conditions,
and a risk of severe weather and heavy rainfall. By Friday, the
quasi-stationary front will be extending to our northwest, along
north-central TX. At the same time, a surface trough will develop
along the northwestern Gulf. The dynamic continues aloft with
increasing PVA associated with an approaching low moving across the
southwestern CONUS/northern Mexico. This pattern of SW to S flow
aloft and southerly flow at the surface will continue to surge Gulf
moisture inland, and increase instability. Some isentropic lifting
can be found on the 300 K layer; therefore, expect partly to mostly
cloudy skies along with isolated to scattered showers and storms.
Daytime heating, decent shear, and instability will be capable of
producing a few strong storms, especially across our northwestern
counties. Will continue to monitor the severe weather potential.
The atmosphere becomes more favorable for showers and thunderstorms
Friday night into Saturday evening as the aforementioned front
begins to move southeastward into the region. Ahead of the front, PW
values remain into the 1.6 to 2.0 inch range, with increasing low to
mid lvl instability and strong bulk shear. On top of that, a strong
40 to 50 kt LLJ will develop ahead of the boundary, resulting in
more unstable conditions. Having said that, scattered showers and
storms are progged as the front moves through late Friday into
Saturday. A few of these storms will be capable of becoming strong
to severe with all severe weather hazards possible (damaging winds,
large hail, isolated tornadoes, locally heavy rainfall). SPC
continues to highlight this threat in their day 4 convective outlook
with a Slight Risk for areas generally north of I-10. Will continue
to monitor trends and the evolution of the mid-upper low Wed-Friday
as it may impact the potential for Saturday.
We have good news if you like cool weather. Well-below normal
temperatures are progged behind the front. Global models show 850 mb
temperatures in the single digits (degC) by Sunday. This suggests
highs mainly in the 60s, which is around 10 to 15 degF below normal
for this time of year. It will be a brief cool down as temperatures
will gradually climb into the 70s by early next week.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Generally MVFR cigs are expected through the TAF period, though we
may see periods of VFR cigs this afternoon. One of the primary
weather hazards of concern today will be the gusty southerly
winds. Sustained winds are expected to average 15 to 20 knots.
However, periods of higher winds with gusts over 30 knots are
likely, especially from the Houston area points south to the coast
later this morning and afternoon. Any improvement in cigs this
afternoon is expected to be short-lived, with cigs likely falling
this evening and tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Moderate to strong onshore winds and building seas are expected
today across the bays and Gulf waters in response to an approaching
slow-moving front. Hazardous marine conditions will continue through
the week and into the upcoming weekend with seas gradually building
up to 9-10+ ft offshore. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
and is now in effect through the end of the week. Rain and storms
will be on the increase this weekend along and ahead a cold front.
In addition to marine conditions, beach conditions will become
hazardous to dangerous with an increasing risk of high rip currents
and coastal flood risk. High water levels during times of high tide
will potentially lead to minor coastal flooding along Gulf-facing
beaches. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through this
evening. This statement will likely be extended through most of the
week.
JM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 72 88 73 / 30 0 30 20
Houston (IAH) 88 74 89 75 / 20 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 74 80 74 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ214-226-227-
235>238-313-335>338-436>439.
Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ330-335-350-
355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...JM
-
captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 445
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
Indeed! Severe droughts inducing great stress on trees have been recorded numerous times going back to the 1600s even in New England. Scientists can look at tree rings to note periods of high stress likely due to heat and drought. George Washington in 1762 thought he wouldn't be able to harvest any tobacco at the time due to the severity. Drought cycles of great intensity have been recorded across the country for hundreds of years and some were likely worse than some of the ones we have witnessed. For any curious to read about the 1762 drought, here is an article about the impacts: https://newenglandhistoricalsociety.com ... te-spring/Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Tue Apr 01, 2025 9:05 pmDrought and corn in KentuckyPas_Bon wrote: ↑Tue Apr 01, 2025 9:03 amI can tell you that - aside from 2011 and some spotty months in the past several years - south Louisiana (my old stomping grounds) has never even thought of being in a drought.
Even when we are begging for rain in the HOU metro area, Beaumont on east along the I-10 corridor is never wanting for rain.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... and%202007.
Six severe droughts in Kentucky going back to 1930.
Drought History For Louisiana’s 9 Regions
https://southcentralclimate.org/wp-cont ... istory.pdf
The 1896 Drought: How does 2023 compare?
https://lincolnparishjournal.com/2023/1 ... 3-compare/
Louisiana has had droughts as well. The most recent in 2023.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5353
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Looks like a pretty quiet next couple of weeks in terms of weather in se texas, maybe a chance for storms with the cold front next week, but i dont see much through st least mid april as a heat ridge begins to set up shop over the central US
First part of April should be well below average. Maybe by mid month a return to near average or above average temps, which will probably bring back severe weather chances as well.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 02, 2025 1:26 pm Looks like a pretty quiet next couple of weeks in terms of weather in se texas, maybe a chance for storms with the cold front next week, but i dont see much through st least mid april as a heat ridge begins to set up shop over the central US
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
046
FXUS64 KHGX 022042
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
342 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Water Vapor imagery currently shows an broad upper level trough over
the Southwest CONUS, with a shortwave trough downstream currently
filling across the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi River Valley.
These two features should serve as the main driver of active weather
across much of the CONUS over the next several days. For today, the
shortwave will be the main feature of focus, with it`s deep surface
low tightening the pressure gradient and establishing a 40-60 knot
LLJ over much of the Mississippi River Valley for today. Gusty winds
reaching 25 to 35 mph continue this afternoon with a Wind Advisory
in effect through 7 PM.
As the shortwave & surface low track northeasterly, it`ll slowly
push a cold front into the vicinity. Right now, that front is moving
through the Dallas/Fort Worth area, but high resolution guidance
suggests it will slow and eventually stall out over portions of the
Brazos Valley later this evening. Showers are currently developing
north of the I-10 corridor and the environment is showing some
favorable ingredients for the development of stronger storms this
afternoon. SPC mesoscale analysis shows 30-60 knots of 6km bulk
shear in place with ML CAPE reaching around 2500-3000 J/KG. ML CIN
is around -25 to -100 J/KG presently, but HREF members have
suggested that it could fall to -10 to -50 J/KG across our northern
counties later this afternoon. Midlevel lapse rates range from 7.5-
8.5 degC/km with forecast soundings showing modest instability in
hail growth zone. In addition, these soundings are also show drier
midlevels with TEI values near 25. 3km SRH ranges from 150-250 m2s2,
though HREF members suggest that this will be decreasing over the
next few hours. HREF Updraft helicity paint balls greater than 25
m2/s2 keep north of our CWA though this afternoon, and given lacking
upper level forcing, it may prove difficult for these storms to
organize.
SPC currently has our northernmost counties under a Marginal (level
1/5) Risk of severe storms today. All severe hazards are on the
table, though damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the main
hazards. The severe weather threat comes to an end later this
evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Thursday will see relatively similar conditions to that of today.
While the pressure gradient briefly weakens overnight, the
aforementioned broader trough over the Desert Southwest will spin up
another surface low over the Rockies, tightening the pressure
gradient again and reinvigorating the LLJ for Thursday. This means
another day of gusty winds reaching 25 to 35 mph. As a result,
another Wind Advisory will be in effect from 7 AM to 5 PM Thursday
for most areas along and south of the US-59 corridor.
The parameter space for Thursday remains largely unchanged compared
to today. The HREF still shows 30-60 knots of bulk shear in place on
Thursday with SFC CAPE ranging from 2000-3400 J/KG in the afternoon.
SFC CIN is progged to reach -10 to -50 J/KG in areas north of I-10
during the afternoon. Forecast soundings still show drier midlevels
with lapse rates from 7.0-8.25 degC/km. The main differences
compared to today are increased TEI values of 25-30, slightly higher
3km SRH, and greater SFC CAPE. In spite of cloudy skies, highs are
forecasted to be a tad warmer, with more areas reaching the
mid/upper 80s during the afternoon. With the stalled frontal
boundary expected to stay north of our area, there still won`t be
much forcing available to aid these storms, much like today.
SPC has our northernmost counties under a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk
of severe storms on Thursday as well. Once again, all severe hazards
are on the table, though damaging winds and large hail will be the
main concern. The severe weather threat is still very conditional,
and storms could struggle to initiate due to lackluster forcing. The
severe weather threat comes to an end once again Thursday evening as
instability wanes.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Western trough will dig southward across the Desert Southwest and
northern Mexico Friday. Lead disturbances on Friday should mostly
take a trajectory along the quasi stationary frontal boundary
stretching from the Big Bend to ArkLaTex area and where better
chances of rain should be situated. But heading into late Friday
night & Saturday, a strong shortwave is expected to kick out and
track across West Texas into the Southern Plains and the front
should get a push to the south. As this occurs, we should see
better shra/tstm chances across the region and will need to keep
an eye out for some embedded stronger cells. The front should
track thru the area during the day Saturday and off the coast
Saturday evening. Suspect the front will take the majority of
available moisture with it, but some guidance is showing the
trailing trof axis not fully making it past the area til late
Monday. Regardless, we should see some much cooler wx filter into
the area behind the frontal passage (40s/60s-70s) into early next
week followed by a slow warming trend (~50/80) toward midweek. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Moderate southerly winds gusting to 20-30 knots continue this
afternoon with MVFR/VFR conditions expected. Areas further inland
will likely see more persistent VFR conditions, whereas areas
closer to the coast may see only short breaks in cloud cover or
potentially none at all. Isolated showers will be possible near
KCLL this afternoon, with low but non-zero chances for
thunderstorms. MVFR conditions fill back in this evening with
occasional IFR CIGS possible near the coast. CIGs slowly lift
Thursday morning though MVFR CIGs should persist into the
afternoon once again.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
A long fetch of 20-30kt south-southeast winds has set up across
the western Gulf and are producing 6-10ft seas. This will continue
(and probably increase another few feet) through at least
Saturday morning and Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Winds
will generally inhibit the dense fog potential, but mariners can
also anticipate some minor coastal flooding along Gulf-facing
beaches around times of high tide (this includes the lowest more-
prone spots like HWY 87/124 along the Bolivar Peninsula, Western
Galveston Island, Bluewater Highway and Surfside). Chances for
showers and storms will increase ahead of a strong late season
cold front expected to push off the coast Saturday afternoon or
evening. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 88 74 88 / 10 20 20 50
Houston (IAH) 75 89 75 86 / 10 10 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 73 79 73 79 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ177-178-199-
213-226-227-235.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ178-179-199-
200-213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ179-200-214-
236>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
Beach Hazards Statement through late Thursday night for
TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for GMZ330-335-350-
355-370-375.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 022042
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
342 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Water Vapor imagery currently shows an broad upper level trough over
the Southwest CONUS, with a shortwave trough downstream currently
filling across the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi River Valley.
These two features should serve as the main driver of active weather
across much of the CONUS over the next several days. For today, the
shortwave will be the main feature of focus, with it`s deep surface
low tightening the pressure gradient and establishing a 40-60 knot
LLJ over much of the Mississippi River Valley for today. Gusty winds
reaching 25 to 35 mph continue this afternoon with a Wind Advisory
in effect through 7 PM.
As the shortwave & surface low track northeasterly, it`ll slowly
push a cold front into the vicinity. Right now, that front is moving
through the Dallas/Fort Worth area, but high resolution guidance
suggests it will slow and eventually stall out over portions of the
Brazos Valley later this evening. Showers are currently developing
north of the I-10 corridor and the environment is showing some
favorable ingredients for the development of stronger storms this
afternoon. SPC mesoscale analysis shows 30-60 knots of 6km bulk
shear in place with ML CAPE reaching around 2500-3000 J/KG. ML CIN
is around -25 to -100 J/KG presently, but HREF members have
suggested that it could fall to -10 to -50 J/KG across our northern
counties later this afternoon. Midlevel lapse rates range from 7.5-
8.5 degC/km with forecast soundings showing modest instability in
hail growth zone. In addition, these soundings are also show drier
midlevels with TEI values near 25. 3km SRH ranges from 150-250 m2s2,
though HREF members suggest that this will be decreasing over the
next few hours. HREF Updraft helicity paint balls greater than 25
m2/s2 keep north of our CWA though this afternoon, and given lacking
upper level forcing, it may prove difficult for these storms to
organize.
SPC currently has our northernmost counties under a Marginal (level
1/5) Risk of severe storms today. All severe hazards are on the
table, though damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the main
hazards. The severe weather threat comes to an end later this
evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Thursday will see relatively similar conditions to that of today.
While the pressure gradient briefly weakens overnight, the
aforementioned broader trough over the Desert Southwest will spin up
another surface low over the Rockies, tightening the pressure
gradient again and reinvigorating the LLJ for Thursday. This means
another day of gusty winds reaching 25 to 35 mph. As a result,
another Wind Advisory will be in effect from 7 AM to 5 PM Thursday
for most areas along and south of the US-59 corridor.
The parameter space for Thursday remains largely unchanged compared
to today. The HREF still shows 30-60 knots of bulk shear in place on
Thursday with SFC CAPE ranging from 2000-3400 J/KG in the afternoon.
SFC CIN is progged to reach -10 to -50 J/KG in areas north of I-10
during the afternoon. Forecast soundings still show drier midlevels
with lapse rates from 7.0-8.25 degC/km. The main differences
compared to today are increased TEI values of 25-30, slightly higher
3km SRH, and greater SFC CAPE. In spite of cloudy skies, highs are
forecasted to be a tad warmer, with more areas reaching the
mid/upper 80s during the afternoon. With the stalled frontal
boundary expected to stay north of our area, there still won`t be
much forcing available to aid these storms, much like today.
SPC has our northernmost counties under a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk
of severe storms on Thursday as well. Once again, all severe hazards
are on the table, though damaging winds and large hail will be the
main concern. The severe weather threat is still very conditional,
and storms could struggle to initiate due to lackluster forcing. The
severe weather threat comes to an end once again Thursday evening as
instability wanes.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Western trough will dig southward across the Desert Southwest and
northern Mexico Friday. Lead disturbances on Friday should mostly
take a trajectory along the quasi stationary frontal boundary
stretching from the Big Bend to ArkLaTex area and where better
chances of rain should be situated. But heading into late Friday
night & Saturday, a strong shortwave is expected to kick out and
track across West Texas into the Southern Plains and the front
should get a push to the south. As this occurs, we should see
better shra/tstm chances across the region and will need to keep
an eye out for some embedded stronger cells. The front should
track thru the area during the day Saturday and off the coast
Saturday evening. Suspect the front will take the majority of
available moisture with it, but some guidance is showing the
trailing trof axis not fully making it past the area til late
Monday. Regardless, we should see some much cooler wx filter into
the area behind the frontal passage (40s/60s-70s) into early next
week followed by a slow warming trend (~50/80) toward midweek. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Moderate southerly winds gusting to 20-30 knots continue this
afternoon with MVFR/VFR conditions expected. Areas further inland
will likely see more persistent VFR conditions, whereas areas
closer to the coast may see only short breaks in cloud cover or
potentially none at all. Isolated showers will be possible near
KCLL this afternoon, with low but non-zero chances for
thunderstorms. MVFR conditions fill back in this evening with
occasional IFR CIGS possible near the coast. CIGs slowly lift
Thursday morning though MVFR CIGs should persist into the
afternoon once again.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
A long fetch of 20-30kt south-southeast winds has set up across
the western Gulf and are producing 6-10ft seas. This will continue
(and probably increase another few feet) through at least
Saturday morning and Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Winds
will generally inhibit the dense fog potential, but mariners can
also anticipate some minor coastal flooding along Gulf-facing
beaches around times of high tide (this includes the lowest more-
prone spots like HWY 87/124 along the Bolivar Peninsula, Western
Galveston Island, Bluewater Highway and Surfside). Chances for
showers and storms will increase ahead of a strong late season
cold front expected to push off the coast Saturday afternoon or
evening. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 88 74 88 / 10 20 20 50
Houston (IAH) 75 89 75 86 / 10 10 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 73 79 73 79 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ177-178-199-
213-226-227-235.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ178-179-199-
200-213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ179-200-214-
236>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
Beach Hazards Statement through late Thursday night for
TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for GMZ330-335-350-
355-370-375.
&&
$$
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
118
FXUS64 KHGX 031055
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
555 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
The normal high temperature for this time of the year is in the
upper 70s...temperatures when you walk out the door later this
morning will be within a couple of degrees as we`ll only bottom out
in the low to mid 70s. We`ll count this as pre-heating for what`s to
come later this afternoon. Southwesterly flow aloft will keep 850mb
temperatures at or above the 90th percentile and some of that
anomalously warmer air will mix down to the surface. This will lead
to widespread temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s...which means
we`re going to be in record breaking territory (see the Climate
section below for the daily records). Speaking of that, with low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s...we`ll be in record breaking
territory overnight once again for record high minimum temperatures.
A frontal boundary will still be meandering just north of Southeast
Texas both today and tomorrow, but it`ll be just close enough to
keep storm chances in for portions of the Brazos Valley and the
Piney Woods. There`s a low chance that an isolated storm or two
could become strong to severe in the afternoon to evening hours in
parts of Houston County (NOT the city). SPC`s latest day 1
outlook only has Houston County in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5)
for severe weather today.
We`ll be keeping the windy theme in for both today and Friday as
strong LLJ`s (45-50+ kt at their peak) pass overhead. As a result, a
Wind Advisory is in effect today for southern and eastern portions
of Southeast Texas through 5pm...and you can expect another one on
Friday as well. Friday will be a bit similar, but with slightly
"cooler" temperatures (by a degree or two) and increasing rain
chances up north as the frontal boundary gets a bit more southward
movement. This is due to the advancement of an upper level trough
with an embedded upper low over in the southwestern CONUS. The
marginal risk of severe weather extends further south on Friday and
includes areas north of a Columbus-Conroe-Livingston line. The
timing for a few storms to potentially become strong to severe would
again be in the afternoon to evening hours.
The placement of the front Friday night will be the main factor in
low temperatures. In front of the...front, low temperatures will be
in the low to mid 70s. Behind the front, low temperatures will be in
the 60s...but that`s most likely to be relegated to the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods. With low temperatures in the 70s in the short
term period, you can imagine how humid it`ll be...so you wouldn`t be
entirely surprised to hear that patchy fog will be possible along
the coast overnight into the mid morning hours.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
KEY POINTS:
- Severe weather and locally heavy rainfall risks possible Saturday
with the highest probabilities north of I-10.
- Drier and cooler conditions expected early next week, following
the front.
The cold front that has been stationary during the week, will
finally make its way to southeast Texas by early Saturday morning as
the main upper trough pushes to western TX. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms can be expected ahead and along the
boundary. Southwest flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface
will keep surging deep Gulf moisture inland. The combination of deep
moisture, decent low to mid level instability on the nose of a 40 to
50 knots LLJ, and strong bulk shear (40-50 kt), could potentially
lead to strong/organized updrafts as the boundary moves through. At
the moment, the greatest potential for strong to severe weather is
for areas north of I-10, towards Piney Woods areas. All type of
severe hazards will be possible if strong/severe storms develop
(damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornadoes and locally heavy
rain). Latest guidance brings the front near the Brazos Valley by
early Saturday, close to the Houston metro around midday and along
the coastal zones by mid/late afternoon. Will continue to monitor
trends as global models show some lingering showers continue into
Sunday; however, most ensembles show little to no precipitation
after Saturday night. For now, will continue with rain tapering off
from west to east by Saturday night.
Behind the front, cooler conditions are expected with well below
normal high/low temperatures. 850mb temperatures drop into the
single digits degC by Sunday, suggesting surface highs in the upper
50s and 60s. Overnight lows will drop significantly into the 40s and
low 50s (coast). A drier pattern with a gradual warming trend during
the day, and cooler nights can be expected through mid-week next
week.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
The main story for today will be MVFR ceilings and gusty southerly
to southeasterly winds. Ceilings currently are MVFR and are
expected to remain MVFR for most locations throughout the day.
Northern sites (CXO and northward) may see ceilings lift to VFR in
the afternoon, and there may be intermittent VFR conditions at
other sites as well...but predominant ceilings will be MVFR. Winds
today will range from around 15-20 kt sustained with 25-30 kt
gusts, and there is potential for occasionally higher gusts.
Plentiful low level moisture may lead to isolated sprinkles/mist
in the afternoon hours, but this will be very sporadic. Going
into the late evening/overnight hours, model guidance is insisting
on bringing in IFR ceilings for most sites that prevail into
Friday morning. Winds remain elevated overnight as a
35-45 kt LLJ streams overhead...this gives more confidence on
ceilings being more of a hindrance rather than visibilities.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
A long fetch of moderate to strong winds across the western Gulf is
resulting in seas around 6 to 10+ ft across the Upper TX coast.
These conditions along with moderate to strong onshore winds will
persist through early this weekend as a cold front enters the waters
on Saturday. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect. Rain and
storms will be on the increase by Saturday along and ahead the cold
front.
Hazardous beach conditions also continue through the week with a
high rip current risk and coastal flood risk. High water levels
during times of high tide will potentially lead to minor coastal
flooding along Gulf-facing beaches. Areas more prone to be impacted
by minor flooding could be those near Highway 87/124 along the
Bolivar Peninsula, Western Galveston Island, Bluewater Highway and
Surfside. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect.
JM
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
On Wednesday, April 2, four out of five climate sites (all except
Galveston) broke their records for daily high minimum temperature.
There is potential today for the double...both record high maximum
and record high minimum temperatures are in jeopardy for a few
locations. Here are today`s daily records:
Record High Maximum Temperatures:
- College Station: 90F (1939)
- Houston/Bush: 87F (2023)
- Houston/Hobby: 88F (2023)
- Palacios: 87F (1974)
- Galveston: 84F (1998)
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
- College Station: 72F (2014)
- Houston/Bush: 74F (2023)
- Houston/Hobby: 74F (2023)
- Palacios: 75F (2023)
- Galveston: 74F (2023)
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 73 88 67 / 10 10 50 70
Houston (IAH) 90 75 87 74 / 10 10 20 30
Galveston (GLS) 80 75 80 74 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ178-179-199-
200-213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
Beach Hazards Statement through late Friday night for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ330-335-350-
355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...JM
FXUS64 KHGX 031055
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
555 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
The normal high temperature for this time of the year is in the
upper 70s...temperatures when you walk out the door later this
morning will be within a couple of degrees as we`ll only bottom out
in the low to mid 70s. We`ll count this as pre-heating for what`s to
come later this afternoon. Southwesterly flow aloft will keep 850mb
temperatures at or above the 90th percentile and some of that
anomalously warmer air will mix down to the surface. This will lead
to widespread temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s...which means
we`re going to be in record breaking territory (see the Climate
section below for the daily records). Speaking of that, with low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s...we`ll be in record breaking
territory overnight once again for record high minimum temperatures.
A frontal boundary will still be meandering just north of Southeast
Texas both today and tomorrow, but it`ll be just close enough to
keep storm chances in for portions of the Brazos Valley and the
Piney Woods. There`s a low chance that an isolated storm or two
could become strong to severe in the afternoon to evening hours in
parts of Houston County (NOT the city). SPC`s latest day 1
outlook only has Houston County in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5)
for severe weather today.
We`ll be keeping the windy theme in for both today and Friday as
strong LLJ`s (45-50+ kt at their peak) pass overhead. As a result, a
Wind Advisory is in effect today for southern and eastern portions
of Southeast Texas through 5pm...and you can expect another one on
Friday as well. Friday will be a bit similar, but with slightly
"cooler" temperatures (by a degree or two) and increasing rain
chances up north as the frontal boundary gets a bit more southward
movement. This is due to the advancement of an upper level trough
with an embedded upper low over in the southwestern CONUS. The
marginal risk of severe weather extends further south on Friday and
includes areas north of a Columbus-Conroe-Livingston line. The
timing for a few storms to potentially become strong to severe would
again be in the afternoon to evening hours.
The placement of the front Friday night will be the main factor in
low temperatures. In front of the...front, low temperatures will be
in the low to mid 70s. Behind the front, low temperatures will be in
the 60s...but that`s most likely to be relegated to the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods. With low temperatures in the 70s in the short
term period, you can imagine how humid it`ll be...so you wouldn`t be
entirely surprised to hear that patchy fog will be possible along
the coast overnight into the mid morning hours.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
KEY POINTS:
- Severe weather and locally heavy rainfall risks possible Saturday
with the highest probabilities north of I-10.
- Drier and cooler conditions expected early next week, following
the front.
The cold front that has been stationary during the week, will
finally make its way to southeast Texas by early Saturday morning as
the main upper trough pushes to western TX. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms can be expected ahead and along the
boundary. Southwest flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface
will keep surging deep Gulf moisture inland. The combination of deep
moisture, decent low to mid level instability on the nose of a 40 to
50 knots LLJ, and strong bulk shear (40-50 kt), could potentially
lead to strong/organized updrafts as the boundary moves through. At
the moment, the greatest potential for strong to severe weather is
for areas north of I-10, towards Piney Woods areas. All type of
severe hazards will be possible if strong/severe storms develop
(damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornadoes and locally heavy
rain). Latest guidance brings the front near the Brazos Valley by
early Saturday, close to the Houston metro around midday and along
the coastal zones by mid/late afternoon. Will continue to monitor
trends as global models show some lingering showers continue into
Sunday; however, most ensembles show little to no precipitation
after Saturday night. For now, will continue with rain tapering off
from west to east by Saturday night.
Behind the front, cooler conditions are expected with well below
normal high/low temperatures. 850mb temperatures drop into the
single digits degC by Sunday, suggesting surface highs in the upper
50s and 60s. Overnight lows will drop significantly into the 40s and
low 50s (coast). A drier pattern with a gradual warming trend during
the day, and cooler nights can be expected through mid-week next
week.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
The main story for today will be MVFR ceilings and gusty southerly
to southeasterly winds. Ceilings currently are MVFR and are
expected to remain MVFR for most locations throughout the day.
Northern sites (CXO and northward) may see ceilings lift to VFR in
the afternoon, and there may be intermittent VFR conditions at
other sites as well...but predominant ceilings will be MVFR. Winds
today will range from around 15-20 kt sustained with 25-30 kt
gusts, and there is potential for occasionally higher gusts.
Plentiful low level moisture may lead to isolated sprinkles/mist
in the afternoon hours, but this will be very sporadic. Going
into the late evening/overnight hours, model guidance is insisting
on bringing in IFR ceilings for most sites that prevail into
Friday morning. Winds remain elevated overnight as a
35-45 kt LLJ streams overhead...this gives more confidence on
ceilings being more of a hindrance rather than visibilities.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
A long fetch of moderate to strong winds across the western Gulf is
resulting in seas around 6 to 10+ ft across the Upper TX coast.
These conditions along with moderate to strong onshore winds will
persist through early this weekend as a cold front enters the waters
on Saturday. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect. Rain and
storms will be on the increase by Saturday along and ahead the cold
front.
Hazardous beach conditions also continue through the week with a
high rip current risk and coastal flood risk. High water levels
during times of high tide will potentially lead to minor coastal
flooding along Gulf-facing beaches. Areas more prone to be impacted
by minor flooding could be those near Highway 87/124 along the
Bolivar Peninsula, Western Galveston Island, Bluewater Highway and
Surfside. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect.
JM
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
On Wednesday, April 2, four out of five climate sites (all except
Galveston) broke their records for daily high minimum temperature.
There is potential today for the double...both record high maximum
and record high minimum temperatures are in jeopardy for a few
locations. Here are today`s daily records:
Record High Maximum Temperatures:
- College Station: 90F (1939)
- Houston/Bush: 87F (2023)
- Houston/Hobby: 88F (2023)
- Palacios: 87F (1974)
- Galveston: 84F (1998)
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
- College Station: 72F (2014)
- Houston/Bush: 74F (2023)
- Houston/Hobby: 74F (2023)
- Palacios: 75F (2023)
- Galveston: 74F (2023)
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 73 88 67 / 10 10 50 70
Houston (IAH) 90 75 87 74 / 10 10 20 30
Galveston (GLS) 80 75 80 74 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ178-179-199-
200-213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
Beach Hazards Statement through late Friday night for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ330-335-350-
355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...JM