April 2025

[DoctorMu]

No real change in the sensible forecast, folks. If we get an inch at the beginning of May, I'll take it!

Don's going to get slammed again. That should keep wildfires away for while.

[Stratton20]

Still plenty of time for that heavy rain to shift closer to se texas, , 06z GFS focuses the heaviest rain right over se texas, 10 days out, that euro run could just as easily shift further south and east on the next run

[Stratton20]

12z Euro over the next 10 days, wet , wet and extremely WET, but in all seriousness this is a setup on the euro and GFS that could lead to a significant flooding event somewhere in the state, slow moving storm system, lots to watch

[Ptarmigan]

Hopefully, the rainfall is over Central and West Texas. They can use the rain for sure.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentM ... or.aspx?TX

[Stratton20]

Holy moly 00z Euro!

[DoctorMu]

That's 10-11 days out. The QPF forecast for the next week remains about the same.

[DoctorMu]

I could be wrong. It feels like a typical May coming up for us.

[tireman4]

393
FXUS64 KHGX 281144
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
644 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Warm and fair weather dominates the first part of the week, but
change comes in the middle week as we watch to see just how deep a
cold front can push into Texas. While the focus of storms on this
front does appear to be to our north at this time, there is some
potential for locally heavy rain in our area north of the Houston
metro, and will be a situation to monitor as we come up on
Wednesday. Some of the key points for the week to come:
- On Wednesday, there is a marginal risk for excessive rain for a
portion of the area north of the Houston metro. A marginal risk
is a threat level 1 of 4 in an excessive rain outlook.
- Wednesday looks like the peak day this week for locally heavy
rain, but rain chances will linger, with daily chances for
showers and storms into the weekend.
- Persistent onshore flow will keep overnight temperatures above
average for the end of April. Though clouds and - later in the
week - some rain chances will keep afternoon highs a bit in
check, we should still expect above average high temps across
the area most days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Until the last few hours of the short term period on Tuesday
night, ridging remains the name of the game of the short term
forecast. As a result, we`re basically just rolling right along
with fair weather, onshore winds, and warm conditions. In fact,
yesterday we managed to snag a daily record high minimum
temperature at Galveston, to give a bit of an image of how warm
our nights are right now. While not full summer, these are
definitely nights that remind us that hot, muggy summer nights are
nearly upon us. In the afternoon, we`ve tapped the brakes
somewhat. This ridging is still not exceptionally strong, and we
do have overnight stratus to break up. So while not as close to
records as the overnight lows are, we`re still managing to get up
higher into the 80s than area averages are for this time of year,
and that should continue today and tomorrow.

Beyond the temperatures, onshore winds continue, but I anticipate
them to be a little bit stronger as we draw closer to the
approaching cold front (maybe reaching? More on that in the long
term) and the pressure gradient will be getting tighter. I
wouldn`t anticipate something that threatens any sort of wind
advisory, but still looking for afternoon peak winds solidly into
the teens, with some gusts into the lower half of the 20s. Though
very infrequent, it does appear likely to see an occasional gust
around/above 25 mph west of the Houston metro.

Finally, though fair weather is going to largely dominate this
period, we do have ample moisture and persistent onshore flow that
tends to have a bit of natural isentropic lift for our area. As a
result, there may be some fast, brief, light sprinkles
particularly at the coast in the pre-dawn and very early morning
hours. Because accumulations would be just a trace and not
measurable, it`s not enough to really push PoPs up more than just
a few percent. But...if you have a really early commute and get a
sprinkle for several seconds, it won`t be the biggest surprise for
you.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

By daybreak Wednesday there will be an upper-level trough moving
through the Four Corners region with a weak surface low developing
in the Central Plains by Wednesday evening. While the main upper-
level trough will be to the northwest, weak shortwaves out ahead of
it, daytime heating, and plenty of moisture around could lead to
some isolated showers or thunderstorms across SE Texas Wednesday
afternoon. The cold front/dry line associated with the surface low
will be approaching SE Texas Wednesday night into Thursday morning
increasing the rain chances with it. However, as we get later and
later into the Spring season/approaching summer, these cold fronts
are getting weaker and weaker, and thus become less likely of fully
clearing (or even entering) our area. Guidance continues to trend
for this front to stall out near the Piney Woods/Brazos Valley
region. This will keep the highest rain chances north of I-10
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This boundary will be hanging
around just to the north of the region through the end of the week.
There will also be passing shortwaves aloft through the weekend,
which combined with the nearby boundary and abundant moisture will
lead to continued rain chances through Sunday.

Warm and humid conditions will persist through next weekend. High
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s most days for inland
areas (coastal areas in the low to mid 80s). Thursday will be the
warmest day as increased WAA ahead of the stalled boundary to the
north will bring temperatures up into the low 90s for areas west of
I-45 but north of I-10. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to
mid 70s through the long term.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Another morning with a wide range of flight conditions across the
area, but all the TAF sites are currently bouncing between MVFR
and VFR, depending on whether the lower deck of clouds is SCT or
BKN. Expect this for a handful of hours before widespread VFR
prevails, with strengthening winds 10G20(ish) out of the S/SE to
follow. Gusts tail off after sundown, with stratus returning
overnight along with MVFR conditions late tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Onshore flow of 7-15kt will persist through much of this week with
gusts to 20kt becoming possible Tuesday through Thursday. Low seas
of 2-4ft will persist through Tuesday morning, increasing to 4-6ft
Tuesday through Thursday as the winds get slightly higher. Small
craft will likely have to exercise caution at times beginning
Tuesday. Minimal rain chances exist through Wednesday, but an
approaching boundary may bring showers and thunderstorms Thursday
with additional rain chances through the weekend.

The persistent onshore flow will lead to increasing risk of strong
rip currents through the week with rip current statements possibly
needed by Tuesday. Abnormally high astronomical tides and the
increasing onshore flow will lead to higher than normal tides with
high tide on Tuesday morning rising to around 3ft above MLLW and
around 3.5ft above MLLW for high tide on Wednesday.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 69 86 70 / 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 86 71 85 72 / 0 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 74 82 75 / 0 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Fowler

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu we will see

[Cpv17]

DoctorMu we will see

I’d like to see both the GFS and Euro agree inside of 5 days.

[don]

Expecting supercells here today this evening…

A very active season so far, and we haven’t even seen a real severe weather outbreak yet. The setup the models show around the beginning of May looks interesting. Could be the first big outbreak of the season for the southern plains.

[Pas_Bon]

DoctorMu we will see

I’d like to see both the GFS and Euro agree inside of 5 days.

Exactly. They've been quite divergent at the 5+ day mark thus far this season.....it seems to me much more so than prior years that I can recall.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17, agreed, but then again next week looks like a cut off low setup, snd those always give the models alot of trouble

[Stratton20]

Moderate risk expanded to include all of SE texas , while models maybe only calling for 1-3 inches across se texas over the next 10-12 days, this will likely be a very slow moving upper level low that kind of just meanders around late next week, gotta watch as we get closer, we need more rain, but this is also a setup that could be “ too much” of a good thing as well

[DoctorMu]

DoctorMu we will see

I’d like to see both the GFS and Euro agree inside of 5 days.

Yep.

Keep in mind folks, a typical May means 4-6 inches of rain in SETX!

[DoctorMu]

DoctorMu we will see

I’d like to see both the GFS and Euro agree inside of 5 days.

Exactly. They've been quite divergent at the 5+ day mark thus far this season.....it seems to me much more so than prior years that I can recall.

We're talking about 2 different systems. The May 1 low ejects NE on both the GFS and Euro models. That forecast has not changed.

The low around the 7/8th of May is progged to be more elongated. On the GFS the 2nd ULL interacts with a backdoor front. That *could* be a significant trigger, which is what the 14 day NWS outlook is looking at. The models are struggling more with the solution, but we're 10-14 days out.

[don]

Currently under a Tornado watch and the SPC has an Enhanced Risk here both today and tomorrow. Tornado season is here.

[Ptarmigan]

That's 10-11 days out. The QPF forecast for the next week remains about the same.

Central and West Texas could use the rain. Let them have it for a change.

[DoctorMu]

That's 10-11 days out. The QPF forecast for the next week remains about the same.

Central and West Texas could use the rain. Let them have it for a change.

Agreed. SETX will get its May seabreeze showers, streamer showers. An inch a week would be just dandy. Don't need any more than that.

[DoctorMu]

lol After the ULL ejects, the Euro and GFS agree on a FROPA and rain along with it. May 2/3 look a lot more rainy now.