Severe Weather 2025

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DoctorMu
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don wrote: Sun Apr 20, 2025 10:06 am Yesterday was very active up here with multiple Tornado reports.
Yesterday delivered in NTX.
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don
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Yep, they got pounded in Clay County with over 9 inches of rain. I received 1.5 inches here. And the NWS is forecasting 3-4 inches of additional QPF this week. We have already received around 5 inches of rain so far this month. 😊And with El Nino trying to "peak it's head" if the rains continue like this, we may have a cool Summer.
Cpv17
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don wrote: Sun Apr 20, 2025 6:54 pm Yep, they got pounded in Clay County with over 9 inches of rain. I received 1.5 inches here. And the NWS is forecasting 3-4 inches of additional QPF this week. We have already received around 5 inches of rain so far this month. 😊And with El Nino trying to "peak it's head" if the rains continue like this, we may have a cool Summer.
I haven’t heard anything about El Niño so that’s news to me. El Niños have been very boring lately so I’m not sure that’s good news.
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don
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Apr 20, 2025 7:28 pm
don wrote: Sun Apr 20, 2025 6:54 pm Yep, they got pounded in Clay County with over 9 inches of rain. I received 1.5 inches here. And the NWS is forecasting 3-4 inches of additional QPF this week. We have already received around 5 inches of rain so far this month. 😊And with El Nino trying to "peak it's head" if the rains continue like this, we may have a cool Summer.
I haven’t heard anything about El Niño so that’s news to me. El Niños have been very boring lately so I’m not sure that’s good news.
La Nina has ended per NOAA: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... -has-ended

Reed Timmer's been talking about it. He has been saying that the transition into El Niño will make it an active tornado season in traditional Tornado Alley in the Plains from now into early June. Keep in mind we are not in a El Niño yet ( we are neutral), but things are trending that way as we move into Summer. The El Niño's being boring lately is all relative to where you live and your weather preferences. As last year's El Nino contributed to one of the most active tornado seasons on record in traditional tornado alley last Spring. This area in NW Texas saw several severe weather outbreaks last season. Even SE Texas had an active May last year with the derecho and several other severe weather events that occurred that month. This could allow the Summer to be cool and wet, hopefully.
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don wrote: Sun Apr 20, 2025 8:22 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sun Apr 20, 2025 7:28 pm
don wrote: Sun Apr 20, 2025 6:54 pm Yep, they got pounded in Clay County with over 9 inches of rain. I received 1.5 inches here. And the NWS is forecasting 3-4 inches of additional QPF this week. We have already received around 5 inches of rain so far this month. 😊And with El Nino trying to "peak it's head" if the rains continue like this, we may have a cool Summer.
I haven’t heard anything about El Niño so that’s news to me. El Niños have been very boring lately so I’m not sure that’s good news.
La Nina has ended per NOAA: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... -has-ended

Reed Timmer's been talking about it. He has been saying that the transition into El Niño will make it an active tornado season in traditional Tornado Alley in the Plains from now into early June. Keep in mind we are not in a El Niño yet ( we are neutral), but things are trending that way as we move into Summer. The El Niño's being boring lately is all relative to where you live and your weather preferences. As last year's El Nino contributed to one of the most active tornado seasons on record in traditional tornado alley last Spring. This area in NW Texas saw several severe weather outbreaks last season. Even SE Texas had an active May last year with the derecho and several other severe weather events that occurred that month. This could allow the Summer to be cool and wet, hopefully.
But last year was more a La Niña. That’s one of the reasons why hurricane season last year was predicted to be so active.
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Apr 20, 2025 8:33 pm
don wrote: Sun Apr 20, 2025 8:22 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sun Apr 20, 2025 7:28 pm

I haven’t heard anything about El Niño so that’s news to me. El Niños have been very boring lately so I’m not sure that’s good news.
La Nina has ended per NOAA: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... -has-ended

Reed Timmer's been talking about it. He has been saying that the transition into El Niño will make it an active tornado season in traditional Tornado Alley in the Plains from now into early June. Keep in mind we are not in a El Niño yet ( we are neutral), but things are trending that way as we move into Summer. The El Niño's being boring lately is all relative to where you live and your weather preferences. As last year's El Nino contributed to one of the most active tornado seasons on record in traditional tornado alley last Spring. This area in NW Texas saw several severe weather outbreaks last season. Even SE Texas had an active May last year with the derecho and several other severe weather events that occurred that month. This could allow the Summer to be cool and wet, hopefully.
But last year was more a La Niña. That’s one of the reasons why hurricane season last year was predicted to be so active.
That's the tradeoff with more of an El Niño ENSO. More shear to produce elevated tornado action but shear to take the tops off hurricanes.

I also heard Reed talking about that while cruising in Dominator 3. Lots of action in NTX, OK, AR, and MO the last two days.

They saw amazing lighting lit specters of tornadoes last night.
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don
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Apr 20, 2025 8:33 pm
don wrote: Sun Apr 20, 2025 8:22 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sun Apr 20, 2025 7:28 pm

I haven’t heard anything about El Niño so that’s news to me. El Niños have been very boring lately so I’m not sure that’s good news.
La Nina has ended per NOAA: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... -has-ended

Reed Timmer's been talking about it. He has been saying that the transition into El Niño will make it an active tornado season in traditional Tornado Alley in the Plains from now into early June. Keep in mind we are not in a El Niño yet ( we are neutral), but things are trending that way as we move into Summer. The El Niño's being boring lately is all relative to where you live and your weather preferences. As last year's El Nino contributed to one of the most active tornado seasons on record in traditional tornado alley last Spring. This area in NW Texas saw several severe weather outbreaks last season. Even SE Texas had an active May last year with the derecho and several other severe weather events that occurred that month. This could allow the Summer to be cool and wet, hopefully.
But last year was more a La Niña. That’s one of the reasons why hurricane season last year was predicted to be so active.
Yes during the Summer of 2024-Winter of this year we have been in a La Lina, but during last winter (2023-2024 season) we we're in an El Niño and were still transitioning from the El Niño to La Nina in the Spring. Last years El Nino was short in duration. This last La Nina was also short in duration. We are not in a true El Niño yet and we may never completely transition later this year, we could stay neutral through next Winter or go back into a La Nina. Its just too early to know.
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Max Velocity ( by the way, he graduates with his BS in Meteorology next month (93% on today's final exam... looks like I'm graduating in less than 2 weeks with a bachelor's in meteorology :))
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tireman4
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More on the Severe Weather Outlook
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DoctorMu
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The low next week is still ejecting NE near Wichita Falls. If anything, even less rain for us. 30-40% chance of streaming or seabreeze showers. To be fair, this is typical May weather. May and October are our rainiest months.
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Outlook
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don wrote: Sun Apr 20, 2025 8:22 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sun Apr 20, 2025 7:28 pm
don wrote: Sun Apr 20, 2025 6:54 pm Yep, they got pounded in Clay County with over 9 inches of rain. I received 1.5 inches here. And the NWS is forecasting 3-4 inches of additional QPF this week. We have already received around 5 inches of rain so far this month. 😊And with El Nino trying to "peak it's head" if the rains continue like this, we may have a cool Summer.
I haven’t heard anything about El Niño so that’s news to me. El Niños have been very boring lately so I’m not sure that’s good news.
La Nina has ended per NOAA: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... -has-ended

Reed Timmer's been talking about it. He has been saying that the transition into El Niño will make it an active tornado season in traditional Tornado Alley in the Plains from now into early June. Keep in mind we are not in a El Niño yet ( we are neutral), but things are trending that way as we move into Summer. The El Niño's being boring lately is all relative to where you live and your weather preferences. As last year's El Nino contributed to one of the most active tornado seasons on record in traditional tornado alley last Spring. This area in NW Texas saw several severe weather outbreaks last season. Even SE Texas had an active May last year with the derecho and several other severe weather events that occurred that month. This could allow the Summer to be cool and wet, hopefully.
The El Nino region has been volatile.
https://www.wxinfinity.com/viewtopic.ph ... &start=940
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DoctorMu
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Hook echo near Seymour Texas, SW of Wichita Falls. Heads up, Don!
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