Severe Weather 2025

[DoctorMu]

Yesterday was very active up here with multiple Tornado reports.

Yesterday delivered in NTX.

[don]

Yep, they got pounded in Clay County with over 9 inches of rain. I received 1.5 inches here. And the NWS is forecasting 3-4 inches of additional QPF this week. We have already received around 5 inches of rain so far this month. And with El Nino trying to "peak it's head" if the rains continue like this, we may have a cool Summer.

[Cpv17]

Yep, they got pounded in Clay County with over 9 inches of rain. I received 1.5 inches here. And the NWS is forecasting 3-4 inches of additional QPF this week. We have already received around 5 inches of rain so far this month. And with El Nino trying to "peak it's head" if the rains continue like this, we may have a cool Summer.

I haven’t heard anything about El Niño so that’s news to me. El Niños have been very boring lately so I’m not sure that’s good news.

[don]

Yep, they got pounded in Clay County with over 9 inches of rain. I received 1.5 inches here. And the NWS is forecasting 3-4 inches of additional QPF this week. We have already received around 5 inches of rain so far this month. And with El Nino trying to "peak it's head" if the rains continue like this, we may have a cool Summer.

I haven’t heard anything about El Niño so that’s news to me. El Niños have been very boring lately so I’m not sure that’s good news.

La Nina has ended per NOAA: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... -has-ended

Reed Timmer's been talking about it. He has been saying that the transition into El Niño will make it an active tornado season in traditional Tornado Alley in the Plains from now into early June. Keep in mind we are not in a El Niño yet ( we are neutral), but things are trending that way as we move into Summer. The El Niño's being boring lately is all relative to where you live and your weather preferences. As last year's El Nino contributed to one of the most active tornado seasons on record in traditional tornado alley last Spring. This area in NW Texas saw several severe weather outbreaks last season. Even SE Texas had an active May last year with the derecho and several other severe weather events that occurred that month. This could allow the Summer to be cool and wet, hopefully.

[Cpv17]

Yep, they got pounded in Clay County with over 9 inches of rain. I received 1.5 inches here. And the NWS is forecasting 3-4 inches of additional QPF this week. We have already received around 5 inches of rain so far this month. And with El Nino trying to "peak it's head" if the rains continue like this, we may have a cool Summer.

I haven’t heard anything about El Niño so that’s news to me. El Niños have been very boring lately so I’m not sure that’s good news.

La Nina has ended per NOAA: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... -has-ended

Reed Timmer's been talking about it. He has been saying that the transition into El Niño will make it an active tornado season in traditional Tornado Alley in the Plains from now into early June. Keep in mind we are not in a El Niño yet ( we are neutral), but things are trending that way as we move into Summer. The El Niño's being boring lately is all relative to where you live and your weather preferences. As last year's El Nino contributed to one of the most active tornado seasons on record in traditional tornado alley last Spring. This area in NW Texas saw several severe weather outbreaks last season. Even SE Texas had an active May last year with the derecho and several other severe weather events that occurred that month. This could allow the Summer to be cool and wet, hopefully.

But last year was more a La Niña. That’s one of the reasons why hurricane season last year was predicted to be so active.

[DoctorMu]

I haven’t heard anything about El Niño so that’s news to me. El Niños have been very boring lately so I’m not sure that’s good news.

La Nina has ended per NOAA: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... -has-ended

Reed Timmer's been talking about it. He has been saying that the transition into El Niño will make it an active tornado season in traditional Tornado Alley in the Plains from now into early June. Keep in mind we are not in a El Niño yet ( we are neutral), but things are trending that way as we move into Summer. The El Niño's being boring lately is all relative to where you live and your weather preferences. As last year's El Nino contributed to one of the most active tornado seasons on record in traditional tornado alley last Spring. This area in NW Texas saw several severe weather outbreaks last season. Even SE Texas had an active May last year with the derecho and several other severe weather events that occurred that month. This could allow the Summer to be cool and wet, hopefully.

But last year was more a La Niña. That’s one of the reasons why hurricane season last year was predicted to be so active.

That's the tradeoff with more of an El Niño ENSO. More shear to produce elevated tornado action but shear to take the tops off hurricanes.

I also heard Reed talking about that while cruising in Dominator 3. Lots of action in NTX, OK, AR, and MO the last two days.

They saw amazing lighting lit specters of tornadoes last night.

[don]

I haven’t heard anything about El Niño so that’s news to me. El Niños have been very boring lately so I’m not sure that’s good news.

La Nina has ended per NOAA: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... -has-ended

Reed Timmer's been talking about it. He has been saying that the transition into El Niño will make it an active tornado season in traditional Tornado Alley in the Plains from now into early June. Keep in mind we are not in a El Niño yet ( we are neutral), but things are trending that way as we move into Summer. The El Niño's being boring lately is all relative to where you live and your weather preferences. As last year's El Nino contributed to one of the most active tornado seasons on record in traditional tornado alley last Spring. This area in NW Texas saw several severe weather outbreaks last season. Even SE Texas had an active May last year with the derecho and several other severe weather events that occurred that month. This could allow the Summer to be cool and wet, hopefully.

But last year was more a La Niña. That’s one of the reasons why hurricane season last year was predicted to be so active.

Yes during the Summer of 2024-Winter of this year we have been in a La Lina, but during last winter (2023-2024 season) we we're in an El Niño and were still transitioning from the El Niño to La Nina in the Spring. Last years El Nino was short in duration. This last La Nina was also short in duration. We are not in a true El Niño yet and we may never completely transition later this year, we could stay neutral through next Winter or go back into a La Nina. Its just too early to know.

[tireman4]

Max Velocity ( by the way, he graduates with his BS in Meteorology next month (93% on today's final exam... looks like I'm graduating in less than 2 weeks with a bachelor's in meteorology )

[tireman4]

More on the Severe Weather Outlook

[tireman4]

Max Velocity

[DoctorMu]

The low next week is still ejecting NE near Wichita Falls. If anything, even less rain for us. 30-40% chance of streaming or seabreeze showers. To be fair, this is typical May weather. May and October are our rainiest months.

[tireman4]

Outlook

[Ptarmigan]

Yep, they got pounded in Clay County with over 9 inches of rain. I received 1.5 inches here. And the NWS is forecasting 3-4 inches of additional QPF this week. We have already received around 5 inches of rain so far this month. And with El Nino trying to "peak it's head" if the rains continue like this, we may have a cool Summer.

I haven’t heard anything about El Niño so that’s news to me. El Niños have been very boring lately so I’m not sure that’s good news.

La Nina has ended per NOAA: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... -has-ended

Reed Timmer's been talking about it. He has been saying that the transition into El Niño will make it an active tornado season in traditional Tornado Alley in the Plains from now into early June. Keep in mind we are not in a El Niño yet ( we are neutral), but things are trending that way as we move into Summer. The El Niño's being boring lately is all relative to where you live and your weather preferences. As last year's El Nino contributed to one of the most active tornado seasons on record in traditional tornado alley last Spring. This area in NW Texas saw several severe weather outbreaks last season. Even SE Texas had an active May last year with the derecho and several other severe weather events that occurred that month. This could allow the Summer to be cool and wet, hopefully.

The El Nino region has been volatile.
https://www.wxinfinity.com/viewtopic.ph ... &start=940

[tireman4]

Ginger Zee

[DoctorMu]

Hook echo near Seymour Texas, SW of Wichita Falls. Heads up, Don!

[tireman4]

Max Velocity

[tireman4]

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An active period of severe weather remains likely through the
weekend and into early next week for portions of the central CONUS.
A weakening upper trough is forecast to migrate across the Northeast
late this weekend as a second upper wave begins to amplify over the
western states. This upper regime will favor surface pressure falls
across the High Plains that will promote south/southeasterly return
flow into the southern/central Plains through early next week.
Severe thunderstorm chances will increase as preceding upper
disturbances and the primary upper wave eject into the Plains over
the warm sector. While severe weather chances are anticipated most
days through the extended period, confidence in more focused,
synoptically-driven corridors is currently greatest on D5/Sunday and
D6/Monday across the southern Plains.

...D5/Sunday to D6/Monday...
Increasing southwesterly flow aloft over the southern/central
Rockies will promote lee cyclogenesis across the central High Plains
beginning D4/Saturday through D7/Monday. This will foster moisture
return into northern TX, OK, and southern KS as a warm front lifts
north. Long-range ensemble guidance suggests dewpoints ranging from
the mid 60s to low 70s are likely by Sunday afternoon across the
southern High Plains to the east of a sharpening dryline. Recent
GFS/GEFS solutions have come into better alignment with ECMWF/EPS
runs that depict a leading impulse within the subtropical jet
overspreading the southern High Plains late Sunday afternoon.
Enhanced westerly low- to mid-level flow coupled with ascent
associated with the upper feature should promote eastward mixing of
the dryline with attendant chances for thunderstorm development
within a buoyant and strongly sheared environment.

The ejection of the primary trough axis on D6/Monday should result
in more widespread 50+ knot mid-level flow overspreading much of
OK/KS. The eastward migration of the surface low and trailing
dryline through the day should provide adequate forcing for ascent
for thunderstorm development within a buoyant and strongly sheared
environment, which should promote an organized, and potentially more
widespread, severe threat.

More specific mesoscale details for both days remain unclear at this
range, but the general alignment of global deterministic/ensemble
guidance regarding the overall synoptic regime and convective
environment, combined with a consistent QPF signal on both days,
suggests predictability is high enough to introduce risk
probabilities.

[tireman4]

Severe Weather Outlook

[tireman4]

Max Velocity

[tireman4]

Severe Weather