April 2025
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Stratton20
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- Location: College Station, Texas
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A couple of drier days ahead, but doesnt look to last long, CPC already has a risk of heavy rain in the 5/2-5/6 window
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jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Apr 24, 2025 1:31 pmNWS take:
“Late in the afternoon, we will probably be looking at a band of showers and thunderstorms moving into the area from the north and have incorporated tempos into the CLL, UTS, and CXO`s TAFs for anticipated arrival. Think the primary issue with the band of storms would be heavy downpours MVFR cigs & reduced vis. Stronger segments could have to potential to produce some gusts >30kt.
Think this precip should mainly be breaking up between CXO-IAH between 2 - 4z...but it is springtime and worth monitoring in the metro area.”
It will probably break apart just over our house.
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tireman4
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259
FXUS64 KHGX 242048
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
348 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
...New MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Band of thunderstorms taking shape to our north will be making
their way into the region late this afternoon and evening. General
CAM consensus is that they`ll make it through the northern 1/3 of
the CWA then begin weakening as they make it toward the I-10 area
8-10pm...and eventually dissipate between I-10 and the coast. (Of
course it is spring, so leave a bit of wiggle room in there for
the finer details). Current radar upstream and guidance is
showing some bowing line segments at times which indicate the
potential for strong wind gusts. For the most part, suspect
30-50mph gusts are more likely...though cannot rule out some
isolated pockets of severe gusts (58+mph). With PW`s in the
1.7-1.9" range, localized 1-3" downpours are possible in a short
time period, but speed of movement should preclude widespread
flooding concerns.
After convection dissipates, we`ll probably see a gradual return
of late night & morning cloudiness and patchy fog. Other than
potential remnant outflows on Friday, I don`t see much in the way
upstream to focus elevated rain chances other than the more
typical diurnally driven iso-sct daytime activity. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Mid to upper level ridge builds across the central CONUS this
weekend, bringing drier and warmer conditions across SE TX. A few
shortwaves embedded on the edge of the ridge will move close to our
region, but enough subsidence and stability will help to keep these
disturbances further north. With 850mb temperatures in the upper
teens degC, highs temperatures into the upper 80s to low 90s can be
expected Saturday through Tuesday.
The next best chance for showers and storms arrive Wednesday into
Thursday time-frame. Details in timing and strength with this FROPA
is still uncertain; however, models continue to show locally heavy
rainfall potential across our northern counties during this period.
Therefore, continued with NBM guidance for PoPs, including up to 60
percent chance of showers/storms.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Ceilings have mostly lifted into VFR territory. That said short
term guidance shows the potential for iso-sct precip development
across the region with daytime heating. Late in the afternoon,
we will probably be looking at a band of showers and thunderstorms
moving into the area from the north and have incorporated tempos
into the CLL, UTS, and CXO`s TAFs for anticipated arrival. Think
the primary issue with the band of storms would be heavy downpours
MVFR cigs & reduced vis. Stronger segments could have to potential
to produce some gusts >30kt. Think this precip should mainly be
breaking up between CXO-IAH between 2-4z...but it is springtime
and worth monitoring in the metro area. Overnight, we`ll see the
eventual return of some low MVFR cigs and maybe some patchy 2-6sm
fog. Gradual improving conditions mid-late morning Friday. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Onshore winds between 10 and 15 knots and seas of 3 to 5 feet will
prevail for the next several days. Winds will strengthen a few
knots late Monday into Tuesday and seas could rise to around 6
feet Tuesday into Wednesday. Winds will slightly relax by midweek
and seas will subside. After today, rain chances may be possible
each day from Wednesday through the end of the upcoming work week.
Also, periods of strong rip currents are possible throughout the
week.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 87 67 87 / 80 30 20 0
Houston (IAH) 70 86 69 86 / 40 20 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 74 81 73 80 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 242048
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
348 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
...New MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Band of thunderstorms taking shape to our north will be making
their way into the region late this afternoon and evening. General
CAM consensus is that they`ll make it through the northern 1/3 of
the CWA then begin weakening as they make it toward the I-10 area
8-10pm...and eventually dissipate between I-10 and the coast. (Of
course it is spring, so leave a bit of wiggle room in there for
the finer details). Current radar upstream and guidance is
showing some bowing line segments at times which indicate the
potential for strong wind gusts. For the most part, suspect
30-50mph gusts are more likely...though cannot rule out some
isolated pockets of severe gusts (58+mph). With PW`s in the
1.7-1.9" range, localized 1-3" downpours are possible in a short
time period, but speed of movement should preclude widespread
flooding concerns.
After convection dissipates, we`ll probably see a gradual return
of late night & morning cloudiness and patchy fog. Other than
potential remnant outflows on Friday, I don`t see much in the way
upstream to focus elevated rain chances other than the more
typical diurnally driven iso-sct daytime activity. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Mid to upper level ridge builds across the central CONUS this
weekend, bringing drier and warmer conditions across SE TX. A few
shortwaves embedded on the edge of the ridge will move close to our
region, but enough subsidence and stability will help to keep these
disturbances further north. With 850mb temperatures in the upper
teens degC, highs temperatures into the upper 80s to low 90s can be
expected Saturday through Tuesday.
The next best chance for showers and storms arrive Wednesday into
Thursday time-frame. Details in timing and strength with this FROPA
is still uncertain; however, models continue to show locally heavy
rainfall potential across our northern counties during this period.
Therefore, continued with NBM guidance for PoPs, including up to 60
percent chance of showers/storms.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Ceilings have mostly lifted into VFR territory. That said short
term guidance shows the potential for iso-sct precip development
across the region with daytime heating. Late in the afternoon,
we will probably be looking at a band of showers and thunderstorms
moving into the area from the north and have incorporated tempos
into the CLL, UTS, and CXO`s TAFs for anticipated arrival. Think
the primary issue with the band of storms would be heavy downpours
MVFR cigs & reduced vis. Stronger segments could have to potential
to produce some gusts >30kt. Think this precip should mainly be
breaking up between CXO-IAH between 2-4z...but it is springtime
and worth monitoring in the metro area. Overnight, we`ll see the
eventual return of some low MVFR cigs and maybe some patchy 2-6sm
fog. Gradual improving conditions mid-late morning Friday. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Onshore winds between 10 and 15 knots and seas of 3 to 5 feet will
prevail for the next several days. Winds will strengthen a few
knots late Monday into Tuesday and seas could rise to around 6
feet Tuesday into Wednesday. Winds will slightly relax by midweek
and seas will subside. After today, rain chances may be possible
each day from Wednesday through the end of the upcoming work week.
Also, periods of strong rip currents are possible throughout the
week.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 87 67 87 / 80 30 20 0
Houston (IAH) 70 86 69 86 / 40 20 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 74 81 73 80 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
That timing is slow. Rolling through Hearne now.
Crossing fingers for y’all. 
Thats a healthy looking MCS… 
Thats a healthy looking MCS… 
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B/CS - finally. 
Not surprisingly, the edge of the bow echo arrived about an hour early. We got gapped for awhile, but now we're getting some inch/hour stuff. My guess is that we'll receive 0.50 - 1 inch.
1 enjoyed the 24°F drop in temp and 50 mph wind gusts.
It accelerated quickly, sucking in the streamer showers. We'll see what kind of ground the MCS can cover in an hour before falling apart.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
511 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
San Jacinto TX-Waller TX-Colorado TX-Houston TX-Trinity TX- Madison TX-Walker TX-Washington TX-Brazos TX-Grimes TX-Burleson TX-
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT GRIMES...BRAZOS...WASHINGTON... NORTHERN MONTGOMERY...SAN JACINTO...HOUSTON...EASTERN MADISON... NORTHERN WALLER...CENTRAL POLK...WALKER...NORTHWESTERN HARRIS... TRINITY...NORTHERN COLORADO...NORTHWESTERN AUSTIN AND BURLESON COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CDT...
At 511 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles west of Kennard to 12 miles east of Bedias to near Somerville. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.
Locations impacted include... Latexo, Madisonville, Conroe, Lake Somerville Dam, Trinity, Bedias, Pennington, College Station, West Livingston, Plantersville, Industry, Groveton, Millican, Huntsville State Park, Lovelady, Iola, Richards, Panorama Village, Deanville, and Bryan.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
If on or near Lake Conroe and Lake Livingston, get out of the water and move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for southeastern Texas.
&&
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
511 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
San Jacinto TX-Waller TX-Colorado TX-Houston TX-Trinity TX- Madison TX-Walker TX-Washington TX-Brazos TX-Grimes TX-Burleson TX-
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT GRIMES...BRAZOS...WASHINGTON... NORTHERN MONTGOMERY...SAN JACINTO...HOUSTON...EASTERN MADISON... NORTHERN WALLER...CENTRAL POLK...WALKER...NORTHWESTERN HARRIS... TRINITY...NORTHERN COLORADO...NORTHWESTERN AUSTIN AND BURLESON COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CDT...
At 511 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles west of Kennard to 12 miles east of Bedias to near Somerville. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.
Locations impacted include... Latexo, Madisonville, Conroe, Lake Somerville Dam, Trinity, Bedias, Pennington, College Station, West Livingston, Plantersville, Industry, Groveton, Millican, Huntsville State Park, Lovelady, Iola, Richards, Panorama Village, Deanville, and Bryan.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
If on or near Lake Conroe and Lake Livingston, get out of the water and move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for southeastern Texas.
&&
Mesoscale Discussion 0547
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Areas affected...Central and Southeast Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 166...
Valid 242228Z - 250030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 166 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for damaging straight line winds continues across WW 166 in portions of central and southeastern Texas. Trends will continue to be monitored for whether or not local watch extensions or re-issuance may be needed later this evening.
DISCUSSION...A linear bowing convective complex is ongoing across east-central Texas, currently moving east-southeast towards the Louisiana border and the Gulf Coast. While surface observations from behind the convective outflow have generally remained below severe criteria, MLCAPE of 15000-2000 and 40 kts of deep-layer shear will continue to support storm organization and longevity into this evening. As the convective complex reaches the edge of WW 166, local watch extensions southeastward may be necessary. New WW issuance could be needed if the bowing segment continues to maintain its intensity into the evening, but this scenario remains uncertain at this time.
..Halbert.. 04/24/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Areas affected...Central and Southeast Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 166...
Valid 242228Z - 250030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 166 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for damaging straight line winds continues across WW 166 in portions of central and southeastern Texas. Trends will continue to be monitored for whether or not local watch extensions or re-issuance may be needed later this evening.
DISCUSSION...A linear bowing convective complex is ongoing across east-central Texas, currently moving east-southeast towards the Louisiana border and the Gulf Coast. While surface observations from behind the convective outflow have generally remained below severe criteria, MLCAPE of 15000-2000 and 40 kts of deep-layer shear will continue to support storm organization and longevity into this evening. As the convective complex reaches the edge of WW 166, local watch extensions southeastward may be necessary. New WW issuance could be needed if the bowing segment continues to maintain its intensity into the evening, but this scenario remains uncertain at this time.
..Halbert.. 04/24/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Can’t get image from SPC site this’ll have to do.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Southern Part of the line looks like its beginning to weaken some, definitely not as strong as it was a few hours ago
Weird that it would begin to weaken this time of the day. This is usually the time of the day when storms increase in intensity, not decrease.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 24, 2025 5:51 pm Southern Part of the line looks like its beginning to weaken some, definitely not as strong as it was a few hours ago
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
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Cpv17 yep, but its definitely weakening alot, southern part of the line is breaking up some, I dont see anyone south of I-10 seeing much if any rain from this , heck even i dont think im gonna see much lol
Nice storm here in the Woodlands.
Well that was a nice surprise of .70 inches of rain in 15-20 min! I’ll take it.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
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And just as i figured, that line fell apart right on my door step