April 2025
I like our chances for Houston metro later today. There’s a ripple on WV imagery near San Antonio headed this way. We should have a nudge of additional lift soon. Nice timing.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6020
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
VFR conditions through the afternoon. MVFR/IFR returning overnight
into Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms expected to move
inland this afternoon and may impact coastal/southern terminals.
More showers and thunderstorms are anticipated for Wednesday as a
MCS approaches the area. Confidence is low on whether or not the
MCS will make it to SE TX.
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
VFR conditions through the afternoon. MVFR/IFR returning overnight
into Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms expected to move
inland this afternoon and may impact coastal/southern terminals.
More showers and thunderstorms are anticipated for Wednesday as a
MCS approaches the area. Confidence is low on whether or not the
MCS will make it to SE TX.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
632 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MONTGOMERY...WEST CENTRAL SAN JACINTO AND SOUTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM CDT...
At 631 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Lake Conroe Dam, or near Willis, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.
Locations impacted include... Conroe, Willis, Huntsville State Park, Lake Conroe Dam, New Waverly, Panorama Village, Montgomery, and Huntsville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
632 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MONTGOMERY...WEST CENTRAL SAN JACINTO AND SOUTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM CDT...
At 631 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Lake Conroe Dam, or near Willis, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.
Locations impacted include... Conroe, Willis, Huntsville State Park, Lake Conroe Dam, New Waverly, Panorama Village, Montgomery, and Huntsville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6020
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
061
FXUS64 KHGX 231150
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
650 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
We begin by looking to the west as a line of strong thunderstorms
makes its way towards the area. This line looks to enter the
western portions of our area around sunrise, and march across the
area through the morning, though there is still some uncertainty
in the precise timing and strength of the storms. Despite this,
the strongest portions of this line will have the potential to
generate frequent lightning, locally heavy rain, and some gusty
winds.
Beyond the immediate concern of this line of storms, here are a
few key thoughts on the rest of the forecast:
- Unsettled weather remains the primary feature for the remainder
of the work week, with daily opportunities for isolated to
scattered showers and storms.
- Rain chances finally begin to dwindle into the weekend and early
next week. This respite however, only looks to last until the
middle of next week when rain potential returns.
- Overnight lows are expected to be near or modestly above
average, while daytime highs for the next few days remain near
average. Look for some warming into the weekend as rain chances
diminish.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
There is a big, bright (well, depending on the color scales you
may be using) attention-grabbing weather detail for our area very
early this morning, but it is not currently in Southeast Texas.
No, you need to look back at a line of storms coming out of the
Hill Country and beginning to bear down on the I-35 corridor in
Central Texas. Though the large majority of the line is not
currently severe, it will continue to make its way to the east and
towards our area.
Because this evolution is going to be driven almost entirely by
the mesoscale features of this complex, there will remain
uncertainties about how this line impacts us pretty much until it
pushes off the coast and over the Gulf. But, the HRRR does seem to
be handling the broad strokes of this line fairly well, and it
does also generally match up with my mental model of the
environment, so I feel relatively confident about what`s coming
up, albeit not in a hyperspecific way. It seems pretty reasonable
to expect the line to reach the westernmost corner of our area
around sunrise, give or take an hour - so Caldwell, Brenham,
Bryan/College Station, y`all are first up! It should continue
eastward across the area through the morning, reaching the coast
around mid-day or early afternoon.
The line is certainly not quite as strong as it was a couple of
hours ago, which makes sense as there is likely at least a little
bit of capping and slight elevation of the convection from a
nocturnal inversion. Into the early morning, this will likely keep
the intensity of the storms somewhat moderated, though the
Geostationary Lightning Mapper and ground-based lightning networks
pretty solidly indicate that we`re still getting updrafts strong
enough to keep storms going. So, until a little bit after sunrise,
we should expect storms, but with a somewhat low ceiling on them.
Of course, even these storms come complete with lightning, locally
heavy rain, and gusty wind threats, just not as damaging as the
severe warnings that they were prompting earlier in the night.
Things may start to get a bit more interesting later in the
morning once the sun starts to get a bit higher. The HRRR tends to
suggest around 8 or 9 am, the line will start to rejuvenate some -
likely as we further minimize or eliminate the weak capping over
the area. I am...not sure quite how effective this will be as the
cirrus shield from the line is already beginning the impinge on
the edge of the Houston metro. There`s a good chance insolation
will be hampered be a veil of high cloud cover. So, while a ramp
up in storm intensity seems realistic, I would not expect the
situation to significantly change - that is, I`m not expecting a
serious severe threat to emerge. Stepping back to the guidance,
modeled peak winds in the 00Z HREF are almost entirely below 45
mph, and the HREF probabilities of wind speeds above 35 mph peaks
out around 10 percent.
By mid-day or early afternoon, this line should push off the coast
and over the Gulf, which still leaves us an afternoon to try to
build back some isolated to scattered convection. How successful
that is will depend highly on just how widespread and strong the
morning convection is. I`d expect that we should still manage some
showers here and there, but nothing that matches this line`s
intensity. And really, this puts us back into more of a diurnal
pattern as any afternoon activity fades with sundown, we have a
relatively dry night with nocturnal stratus. This stratus lifts
and scatters through the morning, setting us up for another
afternoon tomorrow with some isolated to scattered showers and
storms - for the time being, locations farther inland seem more
favored - and then I bet you don`t need me to tell you how
tomorrow night goes, you`ve read it already...
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Chances for showers/storms continue into Friday mainly for areas
north of I-10 as another embedded shortwave passes through the area.
PW values will still generally be near the 90th percentile (~1.60"),
so we could see some locally heavy downpours as we have seen over
the past few days. However, going into late Friday, we`ll begin to
see mid to upper level ridging build in that`ll prevail into early
next week. This will take rain chances on a decreasing trend and
temperatures on an increasing trend heading into the
weekend...especially with 850mb temperatures trending towards the
90th percentile going into the weekend/early next week. So, that
means we`ll go from high temperatures in the upper 80s on Friday and
add a degree or two each day going into early next week. That`ll
take us with plenty of locations around or above the 90F mark on
Monday.
Rain chances do look to return around the middle part of next week
as an upper level trough approaches from the western CONUS and
pushes the ridge axis eastward. This next system may have another
frontal boundary nearby with plenty of moisture to work with, so
we`ll have to monitor for another round of heavy rain
potential...just keep in mind there`s still a lot uncertainty. The
increasing rain chances does trim down temperatures a bit. Speaking
of temperatures, expect low temperatures to range from the upper 60s
to low 70s through the weekend and in the low to mid 70s early next
week.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
A line of thunderstorms continues to approach from the east,
slightly faster than previously anticipated. This will bring
reduced visibilities, periods of moderate to heavy rain,
lightning, and some increased wind gusts to all terminals this
morning and into the early afternoon. MVFR cigs will generally
accompany the passing line. Improvement is expected after 18Z, by
which the line of storms is expected to depart to the east. A few
lingering showers may prevail into the mid afternoon. MVFR cigs,
with a few pockets of IFR cigs possible, will develop overnight
and into tomorrow morning.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Latest runs of high resolution model guidance shows a cluster of
thunderstorms moving into Southeast Texas and off the coast on
Wednesday late morning/afternoon. Exact timing is still a bit
uncertain at the moment, but strong winds, locally higher seas,
frequent lightning, and heavy rain will be possible with these
storms as they push into the bays and off the coast. Outside of
that, light to occasionally moderate southeasterly winds will
persist throughout the week. Around and after midweek, an extended
southeasterly fetch develops across the Gulf leading to an
increase in winds and wave heights potentially reaching caution
flag criteria. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist
throughout most of the week as Gulf moisture interacts with
various upper level disturbances, but will generally decrease each
day after today.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 85 69 85 69 / 60 30 50 10
Houston (IAH) 84 71 84 71 / 60 20 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 73 82 73 / 50 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Batiste
FXUS64 KHGX 231150
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
650 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
We begin by looking to the west as a line of strong thunderstorms
makes its way towards the area. This line looks to enter the
western portions of our area around sunrise, and march across the
area through the morning, though there is still some uncertainty
in the precise timing and strength of the storms. Despite this,
the strongest portions of this line will have the potential to
generate frequent lightning, locally heavy rain, and some gusty
winds.
Beyond the immediate concern of this line of storms, here are a
few key thoughts on the rest of the forecast:
- Unsettled weather remains the primary feature for the remainder
of the work week, with daily opportunities for isolated to
scattered showers and storms.
- Rain chances finally begin to dwindle into the weekend and early
next week. This respite however, only looks to last until the
middle of next week when rain potential returns.
- Overnight lows are expected to be near or modestly above
average, while daytime highs for the next few days remain near
average. Look for some warming into the weekend as rain chances
diminish.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
There is a big, bright (well, depending on the color scales you
may be using) attention-grabbing weather detail for our area very
early this morning, but it is not currently in Southeast Texas.
No, you need to look back at a line of storms coming out of the
Hill Country and beginning to bear down on the I-35 corridor in
Central Texas. Though the large majority of the line is not
currently severe, it will continue to make its way to the east and
towards our area.
Because this evolution is going to be driven almost entirely by
the mesoscale features of this complex, there will remain
uncertainties about how this line impacts us pretty much until it
pushes off the coast and over the Gulf. But, the HRRR does seem to
be handling the broad strokes of this line fairly well, and it
does also generally match up with my mental model of the
environment, so I feel relatively confident about what`s coming
up, albeit not in a hyperspecific way. It seems pretty reasonable
to expect the line to reach the westernmost corner of our area
around sunrise, give or take an hour - so Caldwell, Brenham,
Bryan/College Station, y`all are first up! It should continue
eastward across the area through the morning, reaching the coast
around mid-day or early afternoon.
The line is certainly not quite as strong as it was a couple of
hours ago, which makes sense as there is likely at least a little
bit of capping and slight elevation of the convection from a
nocturnal inversion. Into the early morning, this will likely keep
the intensity of the storms somewhat moderated, though the
Geostationary Lightning Mapper and ground-based lightning networks
pretty solidly indicate that we`re still getting updrafts strong
enough to keep storms going. So, until a little bit after sunrise,
we should expect storms, but with a somewhat low ceiling on them.
Of course, even these storms come complete with lightning, locally
heavy rain, and gusty wind threats, just not as damaging as the
severe warnings that they were prompting earlier in the night.
Things may start to get a bit more interesting later in the
morning once the sun starts to get a bit higher. The HRRR tends to
suggest around 8 or 9 am, the line will start to rejuvenate some -
likely as we further minimize or eliminate the weak capping over
the area. I am...not sure quite how effective this will be as the
cirrus shield from the line is already beginning the impinge on
the edge of the Houston metro. There`s a good chance insolation
will be hampered be a veil of high cloud cover. So, while a ramp
up in storm intensity seems realistic, I would not expect the
situation to significantly change - that is, I`m not expecting a
serious severe threat to emerge. Stepping back to the guidance,
modeled peak winds in the 00Z HREF are almost entirely below 45
mph, and the HREF probabilities of wind speeds above 35 mph peaks
out around 10 percent.
By mid-day or early afternoon, this line should push off the coast
and over the Gulf, which still leaves us an afternoon to try to
build back some isolated to scattered convection. How successful
that is will depend highly on just how widespread and strong the
morning convection is. I`d expect that we should still manage some
showers here and there, but nothing that matches this line`s
intensity. And really, this puts us back into more of a diurnal
pattern as any afternoon activity fades with sundown, we have a
relatively dry night with nocturnal stratus. This stratus lifts
and scatters through the morning, setting us up for another
afternoon tomorrow with some isolated to scattered showers and
storms - for the time being, locations farther inland seem more
favored - and then I bet you don`t need me to tell you how
tomorrow night goes, you`ve read it already...
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Chances for showers/storms continue into Friday mainly for areas
north of I-10 as another embedded shortwave passes through the area.
PW values will still generally be near the 90th percentile (~1.60"),
so we could see some locally heavy downpours as we have seen over
the past few days. However, going into late Friday, we`ll begin to
see mid to upper level ridging build in that`ll prevail into early
next week. This will take rain chances on a decreasing trend and
temperatures on an increasing trend heading into the
weekend...especially with 850mb temperatures trending towards the
90th percentile going into the weekend/early next week. So, that
means we`ll go from high temperatures in the upper 80s on Friday and
add a degree or two each day going into early next week. That`ll
take us with plenty of locations around or above the 90F mark on
Monday.
Rain chances do look to return around the middle part of next week
as an upper level trough approaches from the western CONUS and
pushes the ridge axis eastward. This next system may have another
frontal boundary nearby with plenty of moisture to work with, so
we`ll have to monitor for another round of heavy rain
potential...just keep in mind there`s still a lot uncertainty. The
increasing rain chances does trim down temperatures a bit. Speaking
of temperatures, expect low temperatures to range from the upper 60s
to low 70s through the weekend and in the low to mid 70s early next
week.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
A line of thunderstorms continues to approach from the east,
slightly faster than previously anticipated. This will bring
reduced visibilities, periods of moderate to heavy rain,
lightning, and some increased wind gusts to all terminals this
morning and into the early afternoon. MVFR cigs will generally
accompany the passing line. Improvement is expected after 18Z, by
which the line of storms is expected to depart to the east. A few
lingering showers may prevail into the mid afternoon. MVFR cigs,
with a few pockets of IFR cigs possible, will develop overnight
and into tomorrow morning.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Latest runs of high resolution model guidance shows a cluster of
thunderstorms moving into Southeast Texas and off the coast on
Wednesday late morning/afternoon. Exact timing is still a bit
uncertain at the moment, but strong winds, locally higher seas,
frequent lightning, and heavy rain will be possible with these
storms as they push into the bays and off the coast. Outside of
that, light to occasionally moderate southeasterly winds will
persist throughout the week. Around and after midweek, an extended
southeasterly fetch develops across the Gulf leading to an
increase in winds and wave heights potentially reaching caution
flag criteria. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist
throughout most of the week as Gulf moisture interacts with
various upper level disturbances, but will generally decrease each
day after today.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 85 69 85 69 / 60 30 50 10
Houston (IAH) 84 71 84 71 / 60 20 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 73 82 73 / 50 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Batiste
Still looking good over here.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
League City is likely going to get “dry-slotted”……again. We will continue to see a light mist, but the heavy stuff will likely miss us to the N and S.
I say this partly tongue-in-cheek, but there often (not always) seems to be this anti-rain force field around League City with lines of storms/rain bands.
I stand gleefully corrected. Downpour. Yay
Just light rain and 0.2 inches. It's sunny, but we might luck out with some daytime heating -induced rain later this afternoon.
Moisture and ripples on the way.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/s ... &length=24
Moisture and ripples on the way.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/s ... &length=24
...and NWS lowers the chance of rain to 30-40% through Friday, then the ridge builds.
Good night and drive safely!
Good night and drive safely!
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5358
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Cpv17 yep i was about to say , I really dont see much ridging in the models, if anything, the GFS which has been dry over the past couple of days , has trended back wet again, looks like the long term pattern favors general weakness over texas with a ridge building over the north central US, rain chances look pretty decent through the rest of april and into may
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6020
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
366
FXUS64 KHGX 231854
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
154 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
As of the writing of this forecast discussion, we have so far
observed a low temperature of 73.2 and a high temperature of 74.0
at our office in League City- thanks to the passage of a line of
thunderstorms and widespread cloud cover that has inhibited
diurnal heating up to this point. With the exit of this
aforementioned line of thunderstorms, it appears we will still see
a few hours of heating before the end of the afternoon and highs
may reach as high as the upper 70s to near 80 area wide.
We remain in a seasonable, humid pattern overnight and into
tomorrow with another shortwave expected to traverse the quasi-
zonal midlevel flow and pass just to our north tomorrow afternoon.
Overnight lows tonight will struggle to escape the 70s- with
fairly widespread stratus expected to remain in place across the
area. Some patchy fog is also possible through sunrise tomorrow,
with low dewpoint depressions and a saturated surface after
today`s rainfall. As the aforementioned trough pushes eastward
tomorrow, a few isolated showers and storms are possible across
the northern zones. Rainfall coverage and intensity should be
lower than today, and strong storms are not expected. Look for
daytime highs in the lower 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s
to lower 70s.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Mid to upper level ridge builds across the Plains on Friday,
decreasing rain chances into the weekend. However, isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are still possible on Friday.
A few shortwaves embedded in the flow aloft will move through the
ridge. That combined with sufficient low-level moisture and
diurnal heating will lead to rain/storm chances, mainly north of
I-10.
A drier pattern returns during the weekend, with the ridge
prevailing into early next week. It will be mostly dry, but also
warm or even hot! Temperatures will gradually climb into the mid
80s to low 90s this weekend into the upcoming week. Warmer than
average lows are also anticipated with readings in the 60s and
70s. An upper level trough will deepen across the Rockies this
weekend, dragging a frontal boundary through the region into the
Tuesday to Wednesday time frame. Given this far out, specific
details and timing on this next rain maker are uncertain. As of
now, we can see an increase in showers and storm chances after
next Tuesday.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
With thunderstorms departing the area, any remaining rainfall
chances in the current period will be limited to a few lingering
showers over the next few hours. Winds will relax somewhat
overnight, with cigs lowering to MVFR and potentially IFR levels
at times. Furthermore, some patchy fog will be possible, with
periods of MVFR visibility expected at times. Cigs will scatter
out tomorrow morning, with south winds near 10 knots developing
by mid-morning.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Broad area of high pressure situated across the eastern United
States will maintain an onshore flow across the region for the
remainder of the week. Seas will generally be in the 3 to 5 foot
range offshore. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are a possibility
each day. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 85 69 85 69 / 90 30 40 10
Houston (IAH) 84 71 84 71 / 80 10 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 73 82 73 / 80 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...47
FXUS64 KHGX 231854
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
154 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
As of the writing of this forecast discussion, we have so far
observed a low temperature of 73.2 and a high temperature of 74.0
at our office in League City- thanks to the passage of a line of
thunderstorms and widespread cloud cover that has inhibited
diurnal heating up to this point. With the exit of this
aforementioned line of thunderstorms, it appears we will still see
a few hours of heating before the end of the afternoon and highs
may reach as high as the upper 70s to near 80 area wide.
We remain in a seasonable, humid pattern overnight and into
tomorrow with another shortwave expected to traverse the quasi-
zonal midlevel flow and pass just to our north tomorrow afternoon.
Overnight lows tonight will struggle to escape the 70s- with
fairly widespread stratus expected to remain in place across the
area. Some patchy fog is also possible through sunrise tomorrow,
with low dewpoint depressions and a saturated surface after
today`s rainfall. As the aforementioned trough pushes eastward
tomorrow, a few isolated showers and storms are possible across
the northern zones. Rainfall coverage and intensity should be
lower than today, and strong storms are not expected. Look for
daytime highs in the lower 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s
to lower 70s.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Mid to upper level ridge builds across the Plains on Friday,
decreasing rain chances into the weekend. However, isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are still possible on Friday.
A few shortwaves embedded in the flow aloft will move through the
ridge. That combined with sufficient low-level moisture and
diurnal heating will lead to rain/storm chances, mainly north of
I-10.
A drier pattern returns during the weekend, with the ridge
prevailing into early next week. It will be mostly dry, but also
warm or even hot! Temperatures will gradually climb into the mid
80s to low 90s this weekend into the upcoming week. Warmer than
average lows are also anticipated with readings in the 60s and
70s. An upper level trough will deepen across the Rockies this
weekend, dragging a frontal boundary through the region into the
Tuesday to Wednesday time frame. Given this far out, specific
details and timing on this next rain maker are uncertain. As of
now, we can see an increase in showers and storm chances after
next Tuesday.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
With thunderstorms departing the area, any remaining rainfall
chances in the current period will be limited to a few lingering
showers over the next few hours. Winds will relax somewhat
overnight, with cigs lowering to MVFR and potentially IFR levels
at times. Furthermore, some patchy fog will be possible, with
periods of MVFR visibility expected at times. Cigs will scatter
out tomorrow morning, with south winds near 10 knots developing
by mid-morning.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Broad area of high pressure situated across the eastern United
States will maintain an onshore flow across the region for the
remainder of the week. Seas will generally be in the 3 to 5 foot
range offshore. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are a possibility
each day. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 85 69 85 69 / 90 30 40 10
Houston (IAH) 84 71 84 71 / 80 10 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 73 82 73 / 80 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...47
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5358
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
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Noaa 6-10 and 8-14 outlooks continue with above normal precipitation across the entire state, with another risk of heavy rain across se texas highlighted for may 1-3rd on the CPC site
A. Yesterday's local NOAA discussion.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 23, 2025 12:36 pm Cpv17 yep i was about to say , I really dont see much ridging in the models, if anything, the GFS which has been dry over the past couple of days , has trended back wet again, looks like the long term pattern favors general weakness over texas with a ridge building over the north central US, rain chances look pretty decent through the rest of april and into may
B. Upper trop. height anomalies
The good news is that the ridge moves northeastward in May.
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Stratton20
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DoctorMu oh i meant like permanent summer heat ridging that just locks over us for months on end , as you suggested this ridging looks to be temporary and not overly strong ( highs in the upper 80’s) GFS/ Euro have a disturbance coming in beyond that, keep the rain chances coming! , With enso neutral conditions setting in for the summer, hopefully that can kind of damper any mega death ridge pattern here
We're exiting severe season and entering seabreeze and pop corn shower season as front and dry lines will become a bit more rare. There are exceptions.
Hopefully, the Death Ridge stays away all summer...or at least until late July.
We need a May of Rain in B/CS and Houston. That will mitigate any DR this summer.
Hopefully, the Death Ridge stays away all summer...or at least until late July.
We need a May of Rain in B/CS and Houston. That will mitigate any DR this summer.