April 2025

[tireman4]

Why do I keep getting this message when I log on?

“You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.”

I even donate every month and have for years.

Let me send this to Andrew

[Stratton20]

Im pretty optimistic se texas will have its fair share of rain chances, just maybe not with the easter system ( although still could have showers around) the GFS/ Euro indicate that ridging to our south will be flattened and suppressed for the next several weeks , GFS and Euro both show embedded disturbances crossing the state and kicking off widespread storms every day beyond easter, I dont think its going to be all that dry

[Pas_Bon]

I say we post "No Ridging Allowed December - May" signs all over Texas, but especially SE Texas.

[tireman4]

52
FXUS64 KHGX 141914
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
214 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

...New LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Skies are becoming mostly sunny early this afternoon as daytime
heating and mixing occurs. Max temps will reach the mid to upper
80s inland today. A cold front will move across late tonight and
provide a little cooler temps by morning, and max temps 5 to 10
degrees cooler tomorrow aft. Early in the day likely to see an
increase in cloud cover and possibly some patchy fog. Expecting
partly cloudy skies for tomorrow afternoon. This will be a dry
front, so still no rain expected. With the cooler and drier
airmass in place, we will see min temps from the mid 50s north to
the mid 60s south on Tuesday morning.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Southwesterly flow aloft establishes by mid-week as the mid to upper
level ridge shifts to the Plains. Pattern aloft combined with
persistent southerly warm and humid flow at the surface will provide
warm and dry conditions with increasing humidity levels through most
of the week. Highs could potentially reach the 90-degree mark at
some locations by Thursday and Friday in response to a passing warm
front. Weather will gradually shift to a more unsettled pattern as
we head into the weekend. A deepening upper trough over the Four
Plains will be ejecting different impulses of energy as it moves
east-southeast across the southern Rockies and Plains through the
weekend. As of now, the best dynamic and forcing remain to our
north- northwest, but, this system will drag a front sometime
Sunday into Monday. Given this far out, confidence in specific
details is low. In the meantime, keep in mind that isolated to
scattered showers and storms return to the forecast this weekend,
with the best chances on Easter Sunday. Will continue to monitor
severe weather potential through this period; though, conditions
looks more favorable further north-northwest of our region, as of
now.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Low cloud coverage has decreased and cloud bases are above 3 kft.
Tonight, a cold front will be moving across the region late. No
rain expected, but will see the formation of MVFR clouds areawide
and also likely see some patchy fog form across SE areas. NE
winds will increase as the sfc pressure gradient tightens behind
the front during the 12z-15z time frame tomorrow.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Southerly winds and seas will continue to weaken/subside this
evening ahead of a weak frontal boundary. This front will reach the
coastal waters by early Tuesday. A wind shift to the north can be
expected behind the front; however winds will gradually transition
to the east and then south by late Tuesday afternoon/early evening.
A long fetch of southerly flow is expected after mid-week with seas
gradually building 4 to 5 ft Thursday and early Friday and reaching
advisory levels through the weekend. Rain and storm chances return
by Easter Sunday and will continue into the upcoming week.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 62 80 59 84 / 10 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 64 81 61 82 / 0 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 68 78 69 76 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 PM CDT this evening
for GMZ330-335.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wood
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Wood
MARINE...JM

[DoctorMu]

I say we post "No Ridging Allowed December - May" signs all over Texas, but especially SE Texas.

I was going to post No Ridging: May - December for College Station

[DoctorMu]

This isn't even Spring. It's just Pre-Summer.

[Cpv17]

This isn't even Spring. It's just Pre-Summer.

Feels fine to me. I would just like an inch or two of rain every couple weeks.

[DoctorMu]

This isn't even Spring. It's just Pre-Summer.

Feels fine to me. I would just like an inch or two of rain every couple weeks.

lol I said summer. Rain doesn't happen here...unless something with a name on it and of tropical origins steers our way.

Things are definitely drying out here...and it's only mid April.

[Cpv17]

This isn't even Spring. It's just Pre-Summer.

Feels fine to me. I would just like an inch or two of rain every couple weeks.

lol I said summer. Rain doesn't happen here...unless something with a name on it and of tropical origins steers our way.

Things are definitely drying out here...and it's only mid April.

We should switch to a wetter pattern after Easter. Although I wouldn’t lock it in yet. Better chances N of 10, most likely.

[tireman4]

Outlook

[Ptarmigan]

I say we post "No Ridging Allowed December - May" signs all over Texas, but especially SE Texas.

How about "No Ridging At All".

[Pas_Bon]

Feels fine to me. I would just like an inch or two of rain every couple weeks.

lol I said summer. Rain doesn't happen here...unless something with a name on it and of tropical origins steers our way.

Things are definitely drying out here...and it's only mid April.

We should switch to a wetter pattern after Easter. Although I wouldn’t lock it in yet. Better chances N of 10, most likely.

“N of 10” always gets all the wet stuff. They just need to move 10 south at this point.

[Pas_Bon]

I say we post "No Ridging Allowed December - May" signs all over Texas, but especially SE Texas.

How about "No Ridging At All".

But the ridging keeps us hurricane free.

[tireman4]

014
FXUS64 KHGX 151159
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
659 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Highs today will be a few degrees cooler, courtesy of a FROPA
moving through Southeast Texas this morning. Temperatures across
the area will top out in the mid 70s to low 80s. Clouds and
patchy fog are expected this morning, particularly along the
coastal areas ahead of the front. Daytime heating and dry air
behind the FROPA will result in decreasing clouds this afternoon.
Lows for tonight will be in the 50s to low 60s inland and in the
60s to near 70 degrees along the coast.

Winds quickly become onshore by tonight which will lead to a
rebound in temperatures for Wednesday. Highs will be in the 80s
inland and in the mid to upper 70s along the coast. The onshore
flow will contribute to increased moisture return and create more
humid conditions. Wednesday night`s lows will be in the 60s for
much of the area. A few locations along the coast may linger near
70 degrees.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

A combination of southerly flow at the surface bringing warm
temperatures and increased moisture plus southwesterly flow aloft
ahead of a digging upper-level trough to the west will lead to a
hot and muggy end of the work week. High temperatures on Thursday
will be in the upper 80s for most of the area with some areas to
the north and west of the Houston Metro getting into the low 90s
on Friday. High temperatures may cool slightly (but still in the
mid to upper 80s) through the weekend and into next week thanks to
increased cloud cover and the possibility of some precipitation.
Overnight lows will be rising into the low to mid 70s by Friday
night and remain through through the start of next week.

That aforementioned upper-level trough to the west will begin to
move into the Southern Plains by late Saturday night into Sunday
with a surface low deepening on Sunday. As if right now, the best
dynamics to support widespread showers/thunderstorms will remain
north of the area, but a combination of daytime heating, moisture,
and some weak shortwaves passing overhead will lead to the chance
for some scattered showers in SE Texas Sunday into Monday. The
cold front associated with the low pressure sliding to the north
may pass through the region on Monday ushering in cooler/drier
conditions, or it could get stalled out just north of/within the
area leading continued warm and muggy conditions.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

MVFR CIGs at HOU/CLL this AM. VFR at all other sites. Patchy fog
also ongoing in the vicinity of coastal terminals. Expect
improvement to VFR around 15Z. Winds will be out of the NE this AM
with gusts to 20-25 knots through this afternoon. Winds
transition to easterly to southeasterly through the day today.
Patchy fog will be possible again for coastal terminals again
Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

A weak surface boundary moving through the coastal waters has
ushered in a period of light northerly winds, but these winds will
quickly become easterly by this afternoon, and then southeasterly
tonight - though remaining between 5-10kt all day. The onshore
flow will persist through the start of next week, becoming
moderate at times between 15-20kt and occasional higher gusts.
Low seas will continue through tomorrow, but the long fetch of
southerly flow will lead to gradually increasing seas of 4-6ft by
Friday, then to 5-9ft over the weekend. There will be increasing
chances of showers and storms by Sunday ahead of an approaching
low pressure system.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 60 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 80 61 82 67 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 78 70 77 71 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Fowler

[DoctorMu]

lol I said summer. Rain doesn't happen here...unless something with a name on it and of tropical origins steers our way.

Things are definitely drying out here...and it's only mid April.

We should switch to a wetter pattern after Easter. Although I wouldn’t lock it in yet. Better chances N of 10, most likely.

“N of 10” always gets all the wet stuff. They just need to move 10 south at this point.

More like north of Hearne. Without drylines and severe weather and in May a lucky popcorn shower...there's not many rain opportunities in B/CS.

[DoctorMu]

I say we post "No Ridging Allowed December - May" signs all over Texas, but especially SE Texas.

How about "No Ridging At All".

But the ridging keeps us hurricane free.

The Death Ridge. Can't live with it. Can't live without it.

My recommendation is SHEAR. All summer. That usually means an El Niño.

[DoctorMu]

DP in the upper 40s in B/CS and not horribly hot. NE breeze. I dub thee the Last Chamber of Commerce Day...until probably October...or November.

Maybe a 30% chance of rain this weekend, but soaring DPs.

Rain then...Around the 24th? This seems more like Waiting for Godot...when the greatest chance of rain is always 9 days away.

Capitulating early seems like the thing. What's the Countdown to CFB season? About 137 days?

[tireman4]

926
FXUS64 KHGX 161157
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
657 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Warm air advection returns to the area, and thus temperatures are
expected to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday`s highs. Inland
areas will top out in the low to mid 80s while the coast will
experience highs in the mid to upper 70s. In addition to the WAA,
an uptick in dew point values will create more muggy conditions
for today.

Cloud cover returns overnight tonight, locking in that surface
level warmth and humidity. With limited radiational cooling,
lows will dip into the 60s inland to near 70 degrees along the
coast.

Thursday will begin a transition in the synoptic pattern as an
upper-level ridge axis moves overhead. Continued warm temperatures
are expected with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Highs for
Thursday will be in the 80s across much of the area. Locations
along the coast will be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Cloud
cover Thursday night will act as a blanket over SE Texas, locking
in warmer temperatures during the overnight hours. Expect lows
for Thursday night to be in the upper 60s to low 70s with a muggy
feel.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Warm and muggy weather continues on Friday thanks to southerly
flow at the surface bringing increased moisture and southwesterly
flow aloft. High temperatures on Friday will be in the upper 80s
to low 90s for much of the region with heat indicies rising into
the low to mid 90s. Afternoon high temperatures will be slightly
lower over the weekend into next week (generally around 3-5
degrees cooler) thanks to increased cloud cover, precipitation,
and possibly a weak frontal passage, but more on that in a minute.
Overnight low temperatures Friday night and Saturday night will
be in to low to mid 70s, and then down into the mid 60s to low 70s
beginning Sunday night.

A broad upper-level trough will be digging through the Four
Corners region on Friday, spawning a surface low in the Southern
Plains on Saturday with multiple, weak shortwave trough passing
over Texas. Some isolated showers are possible Saturday afternoon
due to daytime heating and these passing shortwave troughs, but
precipitation chances do not increase earnestly until Saturday
night into Sunday as the main disturbance passes to the north. The
best dynamics for thunderstorms, possibly strong, will be north of
the area, but cannot out rule the possibility at this time due to
uncertainty of the exact timing and location of the passing
disturbance. SPC does highlight areas north of Conroe in a 15%
chance of strong to severe thunderstorms for Sunday. The cold
front associated with the disturbance will either push through the
region Sunday night into Monday, or more likely stall before
getting off the coast. This stalled, weak boundary may lead to
continued chance of showers and storms along the coast through at
least Tuesday.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

VFR conditions at all terminals this morning. Fog may be occurring
at LBX as nearby sites are reporting 1/4 mi VSBYs. VFR prevailing
today with winds gusting to 20-25 kts this afternoon. MVFR CIGs
return overnight around 9Z for IAH and terminals north of IAH. LBX
may have fog again during the morning hours Thursday.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Onshore flow will persist through the start of next week. Light
winds are expected to continue today, but beginning Thursday it
will become moderate at times between 15-20kt with occasional
higher gusts. Low seas will also continue today, but the long
fetch of moderate southerly flow will lead to gradually
increasing seas of 4-6ft by Friday, then to 5-9ft over the
weekend. There will be increasing chances of showers and storms as
early as Saturday with greater chances Sunday into Monday as a
disturbance moves through the region.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 85 64 88 68 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 83 67 86 71 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 78 71 80 73 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Fowler

[tireman4]

Northern Lights Viewing

[tireman4]

Precipitation Outlook