April 2025

[Pas_Bon]

So after analyzing this "pattern shift to wetter/cooler after mid-April" and have determined that this is a lie. We are not the father.
(Maury Povich voice)

[Stratton20]

yeah things are trending drier in the 2nd half of April now, not even remotely impressed by whats showing in the models

[Cpv17]

yeah things are trending drier in the 2nd half of April now, not even remotely impressed by whats showing in the models

Yep, unfortunately.

[DoctorMu]

Looking Back, we just experienced the second windiest March in nearly 50 years.

I actually like the wind for cooling effects. We're going to get droughts every summer in the Brazos Valley...so I expect sprinklers on full for potential months every year.

Anyway, enjoying the Chamber of Commerce weather. I've been working too hard the past few days and missed exercise and sleep yesterday and Tuesday. Drat.

October is a long way away after this stretch. lol

[tireman4]

685
FXUS64 KHGX 102050
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
350 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

With a steady onshore flow pattern in place and a gradual trend of
warmer and more humid conditions over the past several days, this
afternoon`s conditions have reflected the inactive trend of late
with highs in the lower 80s and dew points approaching the 60 mark.
A brief pattern shift arrives overnight in the form of a weak cold
front, which will move through the region before pushing offshore by
early tomorrow morning. The main consequence of this boundary
passage will be a shift to north winds, which will bring down
surface dew point values into the 40s during the day tomorrow. Aside
from it feeling noticeably drier if you step outside, impacts will
otherwise be negligible. Overnight lows will generally sit in the
upper 50s to mid 60s overnight, and some patchy fog ahead of the
frontal boundary cannot totally be ruled out near the coast.

Mild, drier conditions remain in place tomorrow with highs rising
into the low to mid 80s across most of the area. Light winds and
mostly clear skies should prove for yet another pleasant day, with
no active weather on the cards. Overnight lows will generally sit in
the 50s, with the coast just above 60.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

A building ridge and onshore flow will make the Texas atmosphere
gradually warmer and warm humid. Saturday`s dew points will still
be low (40s and 50s). But by Sunday and Monday, may areas will
experience dew points in the 60s. Not too bad for SE TX standards
but definitely a noticeable uptick in mugginess. Meanwhile,
temperatures will be on the rise as well. From ~low 80s Saturday
to near 90 in many inland locations by Monday. Ridging should breakdown
somewhat as we head into Tuesday and Wednesday. This is the time
frame a cold front may push through the region. Could this front
bring a stray rain shower? Maybe. But any front next week appears
dry. We imagine this front could easily bring lower dew points.
But will it bring lower temperatures? Our forecast shows a slight
drop in temperatures as we go into Tuesday and Wednesday. Some
global guidance suggests we could drop it lower. But for now, the
forecast remains relatively warm through the middle of next week.

Self


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period.
Light southerly winds will become variable overnight as a cold
front approaches, shifting to the NW and later the N tomorrow
behind the departing boundary. Wind speeds should generally remain
below 10 knots. A few clouds may develop overnight ahead of the
front, but no cig impacts are expected.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected through
Thursday. Winds briefly shift offshore behind a front on Friday,
before resuming onshore by Saturday. A somewhat stronger and
larger fetch of onshore winds is expected by early next week,
resulting in some south to southeasterly swell by Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

No significant concerns, but just general awareness that we`ll be
looking at low RH`s Friday (generally falling into the 24-34% range
in the afternoon). Wind speeds should remain well below Red Flag
criteria. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 60 82 54 83 / 10 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 61 84 55 83 / 10 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 65 79 64 76 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Self

[Cpv17]

Looking Back, we just experienced the second windiest March in nearly 50 years.

I actually like the wind for cooling effects. We're going to get droughts every summer in the Brazos Valley...so I expect sprinklers on full for potential months every year.

Anyway, enjoying the Chamber of Commerce weather. I've been working too hard the past few days and missed exercise and sleep yesterday and Tuesday. Drat.

October is a long way away after this stretch. lol

The wind is annoying af. Anything over 15mph can go kick rocks. Around 10mph is perfect for me.

[DoctorMu]

Looking Back, we just experienced the second windiest March in nearly 50 years.

I actually like the wind for cooling effects. We're going to get droughts every summer in the Brazos Valley...so I expect sprinklers on full for potential months every year.

Anyway, enjoying the Chamber of Commerce weather. I've been working too hard the past few days and missed exercise and sleep yesterday and Tuesday. Drat.

October is a long way away after this stretch. lol

The wind is annoying af. Anything over 15mph can go kick rocks. Around 10mph is perfect for me.

College Station is on the edge of the savannah and plains IIWII. The heat and lack of rain in the summer is my constant worry.

Interestingly, falls in CLL are not windy as they are in NC - probably the only time of year it's less windy here. With warmer falls the lack of wind and high DP make it miserable when we're begging for summer to end.

[tireman4]

445
FXUS64 KHGX 111159
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
659 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

A weak cold front will move through Southeast Texas over the next
few hours and is expected to push offshore this morning. Not much of
a change is expected in the overall pattern; however, northerly
winds will bring dew point temperatures down. While temperatures
will still be similar to what has been observed the last few days,
the lower dew points will make it feel noticeably drier. Patchy (at
times dense) fog has developed across portions of the Coastal
Plains. Expect foggy conditions to continue until after sunrise.

Highs for today and for Saturday will be in the 80s for inland areas
and in the 70s along the coast. Lows tonight will be in the 50s. A
few locations in the Piney Woods may drop into the upper 40s.
Saturday night`s lows will be slightly warmer as temperatures dip
into the 50s north of I-10 and in the 60s south of I-10. Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

With southerly winds in place, look for warmer and slightly more
humid conditions as dewpoints trend upward into the 60s by Monday.
Upper ridge extending from Mexico into the Plains slightly
flattens as a trof makes its way eastward across the northern
U.S.. Its associated surface front should move into parts of SE TX
Monday night & early Tuesday, but likely won`t have enough push to
make it much past the coast (if at all) before washing out. Rain
chances with this boundary aren`t worth mentioning attm. The mid/upper
ridge expands back north during the remainder of the week and
with onshore winds resuming areawide, we`ll see continued highs
well into the 80s and steadily warmer overnight lows. We could see
another weak front try to make its way into the region Friday...but
this too looks short lived and not much of a wx-maker. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR conditions continue through the period. A weak front will push
through this morning. Patchy fog is expected ahead of the front,
particularly in the vicinity of southern terminals. Fog should
clear out shortly after sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

A very weak frontal boundary will pass off the coast early this
morning bringing a light offshore wind to the area. Southeast and
south winds resume Saturday and gradually increase into early
Monday. Could see some borderline SCEC conditions Sunday afternoon
& night. Another weak front will approach the coast late Monday
night or early Tuesday, but will likely stall and washout before
making it into the waters. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 54 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 86 56 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 79 65 75 68 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...47

[jasons2k]

End of the month things will shift this way. This ends 4/24. Encouraging sign to see the zone dip deep into Mexico. Signals a couple of different things in our favor…

[DoctorMu]

A lot more action in Texas from the 19-25th.

I think most of the severe weather and rain will be west of us, but something to look for.

[don]

Yikes, if the pattern the models are showing starting around the 20th and beyond into May verifies.Climatology speaking such a setup would be capable of producing multiple severe weather outbreaks up here. A similar pattern happened last Spring, and it ended up producing a couple of tornado outbreaks in NW Texas and Oklahoma.

(Not to mention the Derecho and other severe weather events that occurred in SE Texas also)

Like last year this may be a very active peak season in traditional Tornado Alley. As a strong SE ridge would allow multiple storm systems to slow down and eject over the Plains similar to last Tornado Season.

[DoctorMu]

Yikes, if the pattern the models are showing starting around the 20th and beyond into May verifies.Climatology speaking such a setup would be capable of producing multiple severe weather outbreaks up here. A similar pattern happened last Spring, and it ended up producing a couple of tornado outbreaks in NW Texas and Oklahoma.

(Not to mention the Derecho and other severe weather events that occurred in SE Texas also)

Like last year this may be a very active peak season in traditional Tornado Alley. As a strong SE ridge would allow multiple storm systems to slow down and eject over the Plains similar to last Tornado Season.

Yeah. Let's go bowling. The GoM moisture sucking will be on.

[DoctorMu]

Hmmmm...GFS and especially the Canadian dig the low farther south and don't eject the low northward as rapidly as the Euro.

The Euro is probably right, but stay tuned.

[tireman4]

The outlook

[DoctorMu]

The 7 day outlook...and possibly beyond. Just sayin'

[jasons2k]

Well it was 90 here today. We need rain!!

[DoctorMu]

Well it was 90 here today. We need rain!!

A 90.3°F high IMFY as well. Sprinklers on full for sure.

[tireman4]

351
FXUS64 KHGX 141150
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
650 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Another warm day on tap for today and tomorrow reach into the 80s
across much of the area. Highs along the coast will top out in the
70s to near 80 degrees. A weak frontal boundary will move through SE
Texas tonight. PWAT values will be around 0.8-1.0"; however,
forecast soundings show a pretty dry lower level. Current thought is
any precipitation that falls will likely evaporate before reaching
the ground {virga}. Latest HRRR run shows a shower or two in the
northern Piney Woods that could be heavy enough to moisten the lower
levels and at the very least make it to the surface. This appears to
be very isolated though, and did not feel confident enough in this
occurrence to warrant putting it in the forecast grids. Following the
FROPA, expect lower dew points and lower humidity values going into
Tuesday. While highs will still be similar to today`s, it will feel
a bit drier outside.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

A long fetch of s/se winds will set up across the western Gulf and
gradually drive higher dewpoints/rh`s into the region. Overnight
lows will trend upward and closer to 70F by the end of the work
week. With warm starts to the day, afternoon highs shouldn`t have
too much trouble getting into the upper 80s and possibly closer
to 90F mark at a few locations. Mid-upper ridging in place and
high higher moisture levels confined below H85 should limit rain
chances thru Friday, albeit not exactly zero in the waa regime. As
the ridge moves off the the east we should transition to a more
swly flow aloft over the weekend as a western trof kicks out and
into the Plains. Better lift and train of disturbances embedded
in the flow primarily look to take a trajectory mainly N/NW of the
region, though we`ll at least be able to begin throwing in some
20-40% POPs into parts of the area late Sat and Easter Sunday. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

MVFR CIGs across the board this morning. Improvement to VFR
expected around 15Z. Breezy southerly to southwesterly winds
today with gusts to around 20 knots. Winds transition to
northerly/northeasterly near the end of the period as a frontal
boundary moves through the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Moderate southerly flow should gradually taper off later today as
the pressure gradient begins to weaken. A weak front will push
off the coast early Tuesday morning but quickly dissipate. Onshore
winds resume during the afternoon hours and then persist for the
remainder of the week and through the weekend. Speeds should
increase during the second half of the week, and with a long
fetch of southerly winds setting up across the western Gulf, look
for seas to trend upward as well. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 62 81 58 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 87 64 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 78 67 78 69 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until noon CDT today for
GMZ330-335-350-355.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...47

[JuneEl]

Why do I keep getting this message when I log on?

“You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.”

I even donate every month and have for years.

[tireman4]

The Eyewall
The pendulum swings back to high water on the Mississippi River
By Matt Lanza on April 14, 2025

Headlines
The southern half of Mississippi River will experience moderate to major flooding in the days ahead, albeit well under levels seen in other flood events in recent years.
But the addition of potentially significant rainfall in portions of the Mid-South this weekend (Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas) could add to Lower Mississippi flooding risks.
Flood situation on the Mississippi
About a year and a half ago, dire concerns were raised about salt water intrusion into the water supply of the Mississippi River because water levels had gotten so low. Thankfully that threat passed, and for the most part, things have been rather ho-hum in the Mississippi. We're beginning to see signs of change now, however, as all the water from the multi-day rainstorm earlier this month dumps into the Mississippi River.


River gauges along the Mississippi and nearby tributaries that are expected to be in moderate or major flood stage over the upcoming days.
None of the rises on the Mississippi look to be anything outlandish. For example, at Hickman, Kentucky, just downstream of where the Ohio empties into the Mississippi, there is major flooding expected, but still about 9 feet shy of the record from 2011.


The Mississippi at Hickman, KY will remain stable in major flood through the weekend.
Farther downstream at Osceola, Arkansas (just north of Memphis), the river is slated to be at a level of about 37.5 feet, which multiple floods have topped in the last 15 years.


The Mississippi at Osceola, AR will stay stable in major flood but well shy of levels seen in 2011, 2016, 2018, and 2019.
The story repeats down past Memphis into Mississippi, where the river will rise to moderate or major levels but nothing too absurd.

Down in Baton Rouge, the river will continue rising this week, eventually projected to crest around next Wednesday at levels similar to what had been seen in May of 2017 (and lower than levels reached in 2011, 2016, 2018, 2019, and 2020).


The Mississippi in Baton Rouge will crest sometime next week just over the mark into major flooding but lower than levels seen in 2018-2020.
Back to the rains in the Mid-South
One interesting element about the river forecasts is that they only contain rainfall forecasts in the next 24 to 36 hours or so. So, we assume 0 rain falls after, say this Wednesday. Which brings me to an interesting possible storyline that could develop in the Mississippi. Over the upcoming holiday weekend, a cold front is going to push into the Ohio Valley and Mid-South again. There will likely be some degree of severe weather with this, though exactly how widespread or significant remains to be seen.


Forecast surface weather map for Saturday morning, showing a cold front pushing into the Mid-South and some disturbances gathering across the Southwest. (NOAA WPC)
One thing I did notice this morning while going over my forecasting is that the ridge of high pressure setting up over the Southeast is expected to flex again this weekend. In fact, on Saturday morning, the European ensemble has about an 80 percent probability of the upper-level high pressure being in 99.5th percentile for this time of year. In simple language: It will be strong. Similar (but far less alarming at this point) than what we saw a couple weeks ago.


The probability is high that the ridge of high pressure over the Southeast will be quite strong this weekend, likely slowing or stalling the Mid-South cold front. (Polarwx.com)
So the combination of a cold front slowing or stalling as it runs into a southeast ridge would likely lead to an increasing risk of heavy rainfall. Unlike last time, where the bullseye was extremely widespread but focused on Kentucky, at least the initial odds this time favor Missouri and Arkansas. About 40 to 50 percent of the 51 European ensemble members show 3 inches or more of rainfall over northwest Arkansas through early next week, with 20 to 30 percent showing 4 inches or more.


Another round of possibly significant rain shows increasing odds this weekend from southern Missouri through Oklahoma. (Polarwx.com)
What does this all mean? For one, it means that the upcoming weather story will perhaps focus once more on the Mid-South or southern Plains. Secondly, it could mean that the forecasts for the Mississippi River, particularly those down into Louisiana have some risk of increasing in the days ahead. Or, perhaps the river will just stay high for longer, an entirely feasible outcome. Whatever the case, after a quiet week last week, the weather is beginning to look interesting again.