April 2025
Freeze warning for the Hill Country.
Yep not everyday you see freeze warnings all the way into the Hill Country in the 2nd week of April. 
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I'm very happy with the rainfall we received this week. It was needed, and the more rain we can get now the better the Summer should be.
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It is downright cold….. League City, TX.
Color me surprised that it’s this chilly just several days and change before May.
Color me surprised that it’s this chilly just several days and change before May.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
The Eyewall
A quieter week after an incredible rainfall forecast, as huge footprint of major flooding continues
By Matt Lanza on April 7, 2025
Headlines
Weather forecasts verified exceptionally well with the ongoing Mid-South flooding.
Numerous rivers are experiencing or soon will experience major flooding as all this feeds into the larger Ohio/Mississippi Basin.
A much quieter week is expected this week.
Next week may be a good bit stormier, however.
Exceptional flooding, exceptional forecasting
Now that it's over, we can say that last week and weekend's rainstorm sadly lived up to the expectations set days before. Take a look at the map comparison below. Use the slider to toggle between the rainfall forecast issued on Monday and the observed rainfall based on MRMS analysis.
A comparison of the rainfall forecast issued Monday and the observed rainfall late last week and weekend. Additional rain was expected south and east.
Is this a perfect rainfall forecast? No, but my goodness it's pretty darn close. The Weather Prediction Center, which is an arm of NOAA issues these larger scale precipitation forecasts daily. I reference these forecasts regular in my day job and for our readers both in Houston and elsewhere. They're valuable. But they have exceptional utility ahead of major events such as this flood in the Mid-South. The folks at the WPC, much like those at other national centers under NOAA's umbrella are the absolute best of the best in our field when it comes to marrying forecasts with historical analysis and numerical prediction models. As a public service, I'll remind you that the budget cuts currently being proposed to NOAA will cost more in both lives and property in the long run than they'll save in the short run.
All that said, this forecast was exceptional, but so were the impacts. Here is a look at the wide swath of double-digit rainfall totals seen through this event.
A non-comprehensive look at rainfall totals in excess of 10 inches across the lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South.
Many rivers in western Kentucky, southwest Indiana, or southern Illinois will be at their highest levels since 2018; in some cases on the White River in Indiana, it will likely be their highest levels since 2005 or 2008 floods. A few spots on the Kentucky River will actually set new records from this event.
The Kentucky River is setting new records in places.
In Frankfort, the state capital, a record from 1978 is threatened from the Kentucky.
Very important correction! I unintentionally processed the rain obs before yesterday's data had come in. The real numbers are substantially more extreme.
Those recurrence intervals are pretty amazing from southwest Tennessee through central Kentucky. For Memphis, this was the 2nd wettest four-day stretch on record, just falling about an inch shy of a June 1877 flood event there. Six flash flood emergencies were issued for the event across Arkansas, Texas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Missouri.
Rivers that are forecast to be in moderate (red) or major (purple) flooding encompass a huge swath of the Mid-South and Ohio Valley.
Dozens of river gauge locations are expected to experience major flooding. All this water is going to flow into the Mississippi River eventually, and depending on where you are on the river, the forecast crests right now are the highest since somewhere between 2011 and 2020.
All this water is flowing into the Mississippi, which is expected to reach major flood as far south as Baton Rouge by next week.
This one will go down in the record books with some of the bigger Mid-South floods.
Quiet week for the most part
Fortunately, the forecast this week there looks fairly calm with some rain later in the week, likely at manageable levels. Elsewhere across the country, we get to still discuss winter. Cooler temps will allow for some locally heavy snowfall from Ontario, across southern Quebec and into interior northern Maine, where as much as 4 to 8 inches could fall tomorrow.
Winter is not quite over just yet.
Otherwise, the late week storm system mentioned above may allow for a return to some fire weather conditions in the southern Plains. Unlike in March, however, quite a few areas have seen some decent precipitation recently. So hopefully that puts a bit of a lid on severe fire weather concerns for the Plains.
Back at it next week?
I think the next significant weather item to watch will be a chance for multiple days of severe weather next week in the southern Plains. Exactly what that looks like or how it unfolds is TBD, but there are definitely signs in the models that after a quiet-ish week this week, we pick up the pace again next week.
I'm going to aim for a couple more posts this week. One will discuss the hurricane outlook issued by Colorado State. I may try to get another one later in the week on water issues and low snowpack in the interior West. We'll see how this week goes!
Going, going, gone?
I want to leave you with a couple fun links today. As baseball season ramps, up, there are two new ballparks in play this year with the A's in Sacramento and the Rays playing at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa. Over at Fangraphs, Michael Rosen did a two-part look at the weather effects in the new ballparks. Both have interesting quirks. Sacramento's field will have some of the lowest humidity of any ballpark in the league. Tampa will have some fascinating winds which may make Rays games pretty fun to watch. Anecdotally, I did watch parts of some Rays games during Opening Week, and there were some interesting dynamics in play on fly balls. I encourage you to check those links out
A quieter week after an incredible rainfall forecast, as huge footprint of major flooding continues
By Matt Lanza on April 7, 2025
Headlines
Weather forecasts verified exceptionally well with the ongoing Mid-South flooding.
Numerous rivers are experiencing or soon will experience major flooding as all this feeds into the larger Ohio/Mississippi Basin.
A much quieter week is expected this week.
Next week may be a good bit stormier, however.
Exceptional flooding, exceptional forecasting
Now that it's over, we can say that last week and weekend's rainstorm sadly lived up to the expectations set days before. Take a look at the map comparison below. Use the slider to toggle between the rainfall forecast issued on Monday and the observed rainfall based on MRMS analysis.
A comparison of the rainfall forecast issued Monday and the observed rainfall late last week and weekend. Additional rain was expected south and east.
Is this a perfect rainfall forecast? No, but my goodness it's pretty darn close. The Weather Prediction Center, which is an arm of NOAA issues these larger scale precipitation forecasts daily. I reference these forecasts regular in my day job and for our readers both in Houston and elsewhere. They're valuable. But they have exceptional utility ahead of major events such as this flood in the Mid-South. The folks at the WPC, much like those at other national centers under NOAA's umbrella are the absolute best of the best in our field when it comes to marrying forecasts with historical analysis and numerical prediction models. As a public service, I'll remind you that the budget cuts currently being proposed to NOAA will cost more in both lives and property in the long run than they'll save in the short run.
All that said, this forecast was exceptional, but so were the impacts. Here is a look at the wide swath of double-digit rainfall totals seen through this event.
A non-comprehensive look at rainfall totals in excess of 10 inches across the lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South.
Many rivers in western Kentucky, southwest Indiana, or southern Illinois will be at their highest levels since 2018; in some cases on the White River in Indiana, it will likely be their highest levels since 2005 or 2008 floods. A few spots on the Kentucky River will actually set new records from this event.
The Kentucky River is setting new records in places.
In Frankfort, the state capital, a record from 1978 is threatened from the Kentucky.
Very important correction! I unintentionally processed the rain obs before yesterday's data had come in. The real numbers are substantially more extreme.
Those recurrence intervals are pretty amazing from southwest Tennessee through central Kentucky. For Memphis, this was the 2nd wettest four-day stretch on record, just falling about an inch shy of a June 1877 flood event there. Six flash flood emergencies were issued for the event across Arkansas, Texas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Missouri.
Rivers that are forecast to be in moderate (red) or major (purple) flooding encompass a huge swath of the Mid-South and Ohio Valley.
Dozens of river gauge locations are expected to experience major flooding. All this water is going to flow into the Mississippi River eventually, and depending on where you are on the river, the forecast crests right now are the highest since somewhere between 2011 and 2020.
All this water is flowing into the Mississippi, which is expected to reach major flood as far south as Baton Rouge by next week.
This one will go down in the record books with some of the bigger Mid-South floods.
Quiet week for the most part
Fortunately, the forecast this week there looks fairly calm with some rain later in the week, likely at manageable levels. Elsewhere across the country, we get to still discuss winter. Cooler temps will allow for some locally heavy snowfall from Ontario, across southern Quebec and into interior northern Maine, where as much as 4 to 8 inches could fall tomorrow.
Winter is not quite over just yet.
Otherwise, the late week storm system mentioned above may allow for a return to some fire weather conditions in the southern Plains. Unlike in March, however, quite a few areas have seen some decent precipitation recently. So hopefully that puts a bit of a lid on severe fire weather concerns for the Plains.
Back at it next week?
I think the next significant weather item to watch will be a chance for multiple days of severe weather next week in the southern Plains. Exactly what that looks like or how it unfolds is TBD, but there are definitely signs in the models that after a quiet-ish week this week, we pick up the pace again next week.
I'm going to aim for a couple more posts this week. One will discuss the hurricane outlook issued by Colorado State. I may try to get another one later in the week on water issues and low snowpack in the interior West. We'll see how this week goes!
Going, going, gone?
I want to leave you with a couple fun links today. As baseball season ramps, up, there are two new ballparks in play this year with the A's in Sacramento and the Rays playing at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa. Over at Fangraphs, Michael Rosen did a two-part look at the weather effects in the new ballparks. Both have interesting quirks. Sacramento's field will have some of the lowest humidity of any ballpark in the league. Tampa will have some fascinating winds which may make Rays games pretty fun to watch. Anecdotally, I did watch parts of some Rays games during Opening Week, and there were some interesting dynamics in play on fly balls. I encourage you to check those links out
36°F last night. Sunny and high in the 60s today. The grass is green. The A/C and sprinklers are off. Enjoy this Chamber of Commerce day.
No rain chances for the next week.
No rain chances for the next week.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Looks like a quiet week ahead, but as tireman4 posted above, the pattern does look to flip back to wet past mid april, very good news as we head towards summee, im cautiously optimistic this summer wont be as nearly as bad as the last couple have been
Plenty of rain through last July with Beryl! August was the usual. September and October were unseasonably warm.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 07, 2025 12:45 pm Looks like a quiet week ahead, but as tireman4 posted above, the pattern does look to flip back to wet past mid april, very good news as we head towards summee, im cautiously optimistic this summer wont be as nearly as bad as the last couple have been
A wet summer and early Fall FTW in 2025 (fingers crossed).
Great starwatching weather this week.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 07, 2025 12:45 pm Looks like a quiet week ahead, but as tireman4 posted above, the pattern does look to flip back to wet past mid april, very good news as we head towards summee, im cautiously optimistic this summer wont be as nearly as bad as the last couple have been
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
818
FXUS64 KHGX 080653
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
153 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025
Surface high pressure will be situated across the region today...gradually
moving off to the east later tonight and Wednesday. Combined with
a dry northwest flow aloft, look for mclear skies and really nice
wx through the short term period. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025
Dry weather with above normal temperatures will be the main story
through the long term period. Upper trough across the northeastern
CONUS and an amplified ridge across the western CONUS will keep our
region under a northwesterly flow, resulting in warmer and drier
conditions. At the surface, a weak and dry cold front will push over
the region Thursday night into Friday. Minimal impacts are expected
with this FROPA, other than a brief period of surface northwest
winds and a reinforcing surge of drier air. Ahead of the front,
expect a warm Thursday with temperatures near the 90-degree mark
across our western counties. Heading towards the weekend, surface
high/ridging aloft will dominate the pattern, keeping a warm and dry
forecast. Persistent southerly flow will bring a surge of deep Gulf
moisture inland after Sunday, which means an uptick in humidity
levels as we head into the upcoming week. JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025
VFR with clear skies and light winds. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 153 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025
With the surface high over the region, light winds and low seas will
prevail today. Light onshore flow resumes later this afternoon/early
evening as the high pressure shifts to our east. A weak and dry cold
front will enter the coastal waters Thursday night into Friday,
resulting in a wind shift to the north-northwest by Friday. This
pattern won`t last long as onshore winds will return by Saturday. A
fetch of moderate to strong southerly winds will set up across the
western Gulf early next week, potentially leading to elevated seas
and building seas after next Monday. Overall, a dry forecast is
expected this week with light to occasionally moderate winds and low
seas.
Below water levels are expected across Galveston Bay today,
especially during times of low tides. A Low Water Advisory is in
effect from 11 AM - 3PM this afternoon. JM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 49 81 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 52 80 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 62 74 67 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 3 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ335.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self
FXUS64 KHGX 080653
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
153 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025
Surface high pressure will be situated across the region today...gradually
moving off to the east later tonight and Wednesday. Combined with
a dry northwest flow aloft, look for mclear skies and really nice
wx through the short term period. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025
Dry weather with above normal temperatures will be the main story
through the long term period. Upper trough across the northeastern
CONUS and an amplified ridge across the western CONUS will keep our
region under a northwesterly flow, resulting in warmer and drier
conditions. At the surface, a weak and dry cold front will push over
the region Thursday night into Friday. Minimal impacts are expected
with this FROPA, other than a brief period of surface northwest
winds and a reinforcing surge of drier air. Ahead of the front,
expect a warm Thursday with temperatures near the 90-degree mark
across our western counties. Heading towards the weekend, surface
high/ridging aloft will dominate the pattern, keeping a warm and dry
forecast. Persistent southerly flow will bring a surge of deep Gulf
moisture inland after Sunday, which means an uptick in humidity
levels as we head into the upcoming week. JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025
VFR with clear skies and light winds. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 153 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025
With the surface high over the region, light winds and low seas will
prevail today. Light onshore flow resumes later this afternoon/early
evening as the high pressure shifts to our east. A weak and dry cold
front will enter the coastal waters Thursday night into Friday,
resulting in a wind shift to the north-northwest by Friday. This
pattern won`t last long as onshore winds will return by Saturday. A
fetch of moderate to strong southerly winds will set up across the
western Gulf early next week, potentially leading to elevated seas
and building seas after next Monday. Overall, a dry forecast is
expected this week with light to occasionally moderate winds and low
seas.
Below water levels are expected across Galveston Bay today,
especially during times of low tides. A Low Water Advisory is in
effect from 11 AM - 3PM this afternoon. JM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 49 81 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 52 80 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 62 74 67 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 3 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ335.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self
It was a chilly 42 this morning.
What a beautiful stretch of weather. Enjoy it while it lasts.
What a beautiful stretch of weather. Enjoy it while it lasts.
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 07, 2025 12:45 pm Looks like a quiet week ahead, but as tireman4 posted above, the pattern does look to flip back to wet past mid april, very good news as we head towards summee, im cautiously optimistic this summer wont be as nearly as bad as the last couple have been
[/quote
Stratton i sure hope you're right because i'm not looking foward to another brutal summer.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
917
FXUS64 KHGX 090602
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
102 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025
Mid/upper ridging to our west will maintain a dry nw flow aloft.
Closer to the surface, onshore winds have resumed...though
atmosphere won`t modify much before the next weak frontal boundary
makes its way through the area late Thursday night. Other than a
wind shift, this front will not be all that noticeable...just
prolonging the status quo with dry wx and mainly seasonable temps.
47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025
In the grand scheme of things, weather will be dry and pleasant
going into early next week. We`ll on the eastern edge of ridging
aloft, which will take us on a gradual warming trend throughout the
forecast period but will be briefly halted by a cold front that
pushes through late Thursday night/early Friday morning. In general,
expect high temperatures in the 80s and beginning to peak into the
upper 80s (maybe even low 90s) going into early next week. Low
temperatures start out in the 50s on Friday night, a mixture of
50s/60s on Saturday night, then solidly in the 60s into next week.
Early next week is when we reintroduce elevated amounts of humidity
back into the forecast as onshore flow is amplified between
developing surface low pressure in the Central Plains and surface
low pressure over the northeastern Gulf. You might have the same
question that I have...when`s the next chance of rain? Based on
ensemble guidance, likely not till end of next work week...so we`ll
get to enjoy quite the extended period of quiet weather!
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025
VFR for the next 30+ hours. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 102 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025
Benign marine conditions persist with relatively light winds and low
seas prevailing into the weekend. Winds will be predominantly
onshore before becoming offshore on Friday as a frontal boundary
pushes off the coast. Onshore flow returns by Saturday and gradually
strengthens going into the latter half of the weekend. Seas will
also go on a gradual increasing trend late in the weekend due to the
strengthening onshore flow.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 56 86 56 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 81 58 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 74 67 76 64 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
FXUS64 KHGX 090602
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
102 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025
Mid/upper ridging to our west will maintain a dry nw flow aloft.
Closer to the surface, onshore winds have resumed...though
atmosphere won`t modify much before the next weak frontal boundary
makes its way through the area late Thursday night. Other than a
wind shift, this front will not be all that noticeable...just
prolonging the status quo with dry wx and mainly seasonable temps.
47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025
In the grand scheme of things, weather will be dry and pleasant
going into early next week. We`ll on the eastern edge of ridging
aloft, which will take us on a gradual warming trend throughout the
forecast period but will be briefly halted by a cold front that
pushes through late Thursday night/early Friday morning. In general,
expect high temperatures in the 80s and beginning to peak into the
upper 80s (maybe even low 90s) going into early next week. Low
temperatures start out in the 50s on Friday night, a mixture of
50s/60s on Saturday night, then solidly in the 60s into next week.
Early next week is when we reintroduce elevated amounts of humidity
back into the forecast as onshore flow is amplified between
developing surface low pressure in the Central Plains and surface
low pressure over the northeastern Gulf. You might have the same
question that I have...when`s the next chance of rain? Based on
ensemble guidance, likely not till end of next work week...so we`ll
get to enjoy quite the extended period of quiet weather!
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025
VFR for the next 30+ hours. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 102 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025
Benign marine conditions persist with relatively light winds and low
seas prevailing into the weekend. Winds will be predominantly
onshore before becoming offshore on Friday as a frontal boundary
pushes off the coast. Onshore flow returns by Saturday and gradually
strengthens going into the latter half of the weekend. Seas will
also go on a gradual increasing trend late in the weekend due to the
strengthening onshore flow.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 56 86 56 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 81 58 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 74 67 76 64 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
359
FXUS64 KHGX 100728
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
228 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025
A warm ssw llvl flow will prevail today. Combined with plenty of sun
along with relatively low dewpoints should lead to decent heating
today and 2-5F higher temps than we say yesterday. A weak front
makes its way into the region tonight and mostly off the coast
Friday morning. There`s not much moisture to work with, so other
than some clouds and patchy fog w/sw of the metro area ahead of the
weak boundary, we`ll maintain unmentionable POPs across the area.
Continued nice springtime wx will persist Fri & Fri night with
highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025
Going into the weekend, onshore returns following the end of the
work week cold front. This leads to a warming trend going into early
next week as Southeast TX remains on the eastern edge of an upper
level ridge. An 850mb high pressure moves in overhead on Saturday
and then out to east, which reestablishes southwesterly flow aloft.
This sets the stage for very efficient WAA that leads to 850mb
temperatures reaching at or above the 90th percentile by Sunday. So,
we`ll go from the low to mid 80s on Saturday to the mid/upper 80s on
Sunday and peaking on Monday in the upper 80s to low 90s. We`ll see
a similar climb in overnight temperatures with Saturday night`s lows
in the 50s/60s followed by lows in the 60s beyond that.
Ridging aloft breaks down going into early next week as an upper
level trough dips down into the northern CONUS...still uncertain on
how far south this trough extends along with the strength of the
embedded upper level low. Both of these will have an impact on a
frontal boundary that looks to approach the region late Monday/early
Tuesday. PW values become elevated (approaching the 75th percentile)
along the frontal boundary, so it wouldn`t be surprising to see a
few rain showers develop...but I`m leaving PoPS around 10% for now.
This may be just a brief passing of a front that only lasts for a
short period of time...but we`ll take anything we can get to delay
the extended streaks of hot temperatures. Unfortunately, looks like
ridging aloft builds back in after midweek setting us up on yet
another warming trend.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025
VFR for the next 30+ hours. Will probably see some 5000-6000ft
sct/bkn cloud cover move in ahead of a weak front that`ll be moving
through the area overnight & early Fri morning...then clear back out
after its passage. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025
Benign marine conditions persist with relatively light winds and low
seas prevailing into the weekend. Winds will be predominantly
onshore before becoming offshore on Friday as a frontal boundary
pushes off the coast. Onshore flow returns by Saturday and gradually
strengthens going into the latter half of the weekend. Seas will
gradually increase late in the weekend due to the strengthening
onshore flow.
Batiste
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025
No significant concerns, but just general awareness that we`ll be
looking at low RH`s Friday (generally falling into the 24-34% range
in the afternoon). Wind speeds should remain well below Red Flag
criteria. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 60 82 54 / 0 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 86 61 84 55 / 0 10 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 78 65 79 64 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
FXUS64 KHGX 100728
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
228 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025
A warm ssw llvl flow will prevail today. Combined with plenty of sun
along with relatively low dewpoints should lead to decent heating
today and 2-5F higher temps than we say yesterday. A weak front
makes its way into the region tonight and mostly off the coast
Friday morning. There`s not much moisture to work with, so other
than some clouds and patchy fog w/sw of the metro area ahead of the
weak boundary, we`ll maintain unmentionable POPs across the area.
Continued nice springtime wx will persist Fri & Fri night with
highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025
Going into the weekend, onshore returns following the end of the
work week cold front. This leads to a warming trend going into early
next week as Southeast TX remains on the eastern edge of an upper
level ridge. An 850mb high pressure moves in overhead on Saturday
and then out to east, which reestablishes southwesterly flow aloft.
This sets the stage for very efficient WAA that leads to 850mb
temperatures reaching at or above the 90th percentile by Sunday. So,
we`ll go from the low to mid 80s on Saturday to the mid/upper 80s on
Sunday and peaking on Monday in the upper 80s to low 90s. We`ll see
a similar climb in overnight temperatures with Saturday night`s lows
in the 50s/60s followed by lows in the 60s beyond that.
Ridging aloft breaks down going into early next week as an upper
level trough dips down into the northern CONUS...still uncertain on
how far south this trough extends along with the strength of the
embedded upper level low. Both of these will have an impact on a
frontal boundary that looks to approach the region late Monday/early
Tuesday. PW values become elevated (approaching the 75th percentile)
along the frontal boundary, so it wouldn`t be surprising to see a
few rain showers develop...but I`m leaving PoPS around 10% for now.
This may be just a brief passing of a front that only lasts for a
short period of time...but we`ll take anything we can get to delay
the extended streaks of hot temperatures. Unfortunately, looks like
ridging aloft builds back in after midweek setting us up on yet
another warming trend.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025
VFR for the next 30+ hours. Will probably see some 5000-6000ft
sct/bkn cloud cover move in ahead of a weak front that`ll be moving
through the area overnight & early Fri morning...then clear back out
after its passage. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025
Benign marine conditions persist with relatively light winds and low
seas prevailing into the weekend. Winds will be predominantly
onshore before becoming offshore on Friday as a frontal boundary
pushes off the coast. Onshore flow returns by Saturday and gradually
strengthens going into the latter half of the weekend. Seas will
gradually increase late in the weekend due to the strengthening
onshore flow.
Batiste
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025
No significant concerns, but just general awareness that we`ll be
looking at low RH`s Friday (generally falling into the 24-34% range
in the afternoon). Wind speeds should remain well below Red Flag
criteria. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 60 82 54 / 0 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 86 61 84 55 / 0 10 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 78 65 79 64 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
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