We have a lot of rain on the way up here over the next few days. I’ve picked up almost 1 inch already from the first round of storms.
There’s also some model support for a period of snow this weekend. Though I would like to see more data before buying into the snow yet.
April 2025
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
don wrote: ↑Thu Apr 03, 2025 10:21 am We have a lot of rain on the way up here over the next few days. I’ve picked up almost 1 inch already from the first round of storms.
There’s also some model support for a period of snow this weekend. Though I would like to see more data before buying into the snow yet.
If you get snow, we need pictures Don!!
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Moderate southerly winds gusting to 20-30 knots continue this
afternoon with MVFR/VFR conditions expected. Areas further inland
will likely scatter to VFR FL like yesterday, whereas areas
near the coast may see only short breaks in cloud cover or
potentially none at all. Isolated showers may develop in the
afternoon, though confidence it too low to include in the current
TAF. MVFR conditions fill back in this evening. Intermittent IFR
CIGs may fill in at times tonight/Friday morning, though MVFR FLs
should dominate across the broader area. CIGs slowly lift
Friday morning with MVFR/VFR conditions likely through the
afternoon. Rain chances slowly increase through the afternoon as a
cold front approaches the area.
03
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Moderate southerly winds gusting to 20-30 knots continue this
afternoon with MVFR/VFR conditions expected. Areas further inland
will likely scatter to VFR FL like yesterday, whereas areas
near the coast may see only short breaks in cloud cover or
potentially none at all. Isolated showers may develop in the
afternoon, though confidence it too low to include in the current
TAF. MVFR conditions fill back in this evening. Intermittent IFR
CIGs may fill in at times tonight/Friday morning, though MVFR FLs
should dominate across the broader area. CIGs slowly lift
Friday morning with MVFR/VFR conditions likely through the
afternoon. Rain chances slowly increase through the afternoon as a
cold front approaches the area.
03
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
137
FXUS64 KHGX 031932
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
232 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Overall we`re still in a similar pattern to the previous day, with a
broader trough over the Desert Southwest tightening the pressure
gradient to keep a 40-60 kt LLJ overhead. Gusty winds continue this
afternoon, reaching 25 to 35 mph in spots. A Wind Advisory will be
in effect until 5 PM today for most areas along and south of the US-
59 corridor.
The parameter space for the severe weather threat today looks
similar to that of yesterday. The HREF still shows 30-60 knots of
bulk shear in place with SFC CAPE ranging from 2000-3700 J/KG in the
afternoon. SFC CIN is progged to reach -5 J/KG across the Brazos
Valley to -50 J/KG closer to the coast. Forecast soundings still
show drier midlevels with lapse rates from 7.0-8.25 degC/km. DCAPE
is over 1000 J/KG with TEI values of 25-32. Forcing is lacking
still, but with the stalled frontal boundary sagging south,
compressional heating ahead of it could enhance convection. We
already have a few showers developing over this area already as
conditions near convective temps. SPC mesoanalysis shows microburst
composite parameter values near 6-8 around this area of showers.
SPC has a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk of severe storms bordering our
northern counties this afternoon though this evening. While we`re
likely to see no more than a few showers this afternoon, it is
entirely feasible that some pulse-y storms could pop up this
afternoon. All severe hazards are on the table still, though
damaging winds and large hail will be the main concern to watch for
if any thunderstorms pull together.
On Friday the upper level trough trudges eastward. The presence of
the LLJ overhead will still bring winds gusts of 25 to 35 mph,
necessitating another Wind Advisory. The stalled frontal boundary is
expected to push southward towards the fringes of SE Texas Friday
evening, continuing southward into Saturday. Ahead of this line, the
last two HRRR runs have 25 m2s2 updraft helicity paint balls in
place over our northeastern counties near Crockett/Livingston.
Better clustering exists further northwest, though it`ll be an area
to watch Friday afternoon as we reach peak heating, especially with
a similar environment still in place. We`ll lose some instability
during the evening, potentially seeing lull in activity before
the cold front slowly makes is way into the area, mainly overnight
into early Saturday. SPC now has portions of the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods under a Slight (level 2/5) Risk of severe
weather on Friday. All severe hazards are on the table once again,
though rising SRH increases the risk of more organized storms and
or isolated tornadoes. This severe weather risk continues into
Saturday as the front continues through the area.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Main story this long term is the severe weather threat for Saturday.
A large upper level low swinging in from the Desert Southwest will
finally bring that stalled boundary that has been hanging around to
our northwest through the region on Saturday. FROPA is still looking
to occur during the morning hours (8-10am) through the Brazos
Valley, early to mid afternoon along the I-45 Corridor, and then off
to the east by the late afternoon or evening. After days of deep
southerly flow across SE Texas, PWATs will be surging to 1.6-1.9"
ahead of the front. Combine that with instability (LREF mean CAPE is
around 1500-2000+ J/kg ahead of the front) and high shear is a
recipe for strong to severe thunderstorms. Storms that develop ahead
of and along the cold front will be capable of producing damaging
wind gusts, hail, and tornadoes. So, Saturday is a day stay weather-
aware and to make sure you have ways to get warnings, if they are
issued. SPC has placed most of SE Texas in a Slight Risk (level 2 of
5) for Severe Weather with an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) to the
northeast across the TX/LA border. WPC also has a Marginal to Slight
Risk (level 1-2 of 4) across the area for Excessive Rainfall as the
isolated strong to severe storms may drop upwards of 1-2"+ of
rain which could lead to some minor flooding if they happen over
areas of poor drainage.
Once the front is through Saturday evening, the threat for severe
weather ends. And with high pressure building in behind the front we
will likely not see any additional precipitation through most of
next week.
The high temperature on Saturday will be highly dependent on the
quickness of the front. With current model guidance on FROPA timing,
have high temperatures in the low 80s along and south of I-10 and
mid to upper 70s to the north. However a slower FROPA, expect more
of the area getting into the 80s, but a quicker FROPA keeping most
of the region in the 70s. Low temperatures Saturday night will be in
the mid to upper 40s north and west of the Houston Metro and low to
mid 50s to the south and east. There will be a slow climb in
temperatures through the rest of the long term with highs on Sunday
in the upper 50s to mid 60s, then mid 60s to low 70s on Monday, mid
to upper 70s on Tuesday, and finally back to the low 80s by
Wednesday. Low temperatures will see a similar trend: generally low
to mid 40s on Sunday night and Monday night, low to mid 50s Tuesday
night, and mid to upper 50s on Wednesday night.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Moderate southerly winds gusting to 20-30 knots continue this
afternoon with MVFR/VFR conditions expected. Areas further inland
will likely scatter to VFR FL like yesterday, whereas areas
near the coast may see only short breaks in cloud cover or
potentially none at all. Isolated showers may develop in the
afternoon, though confidence it too low to include in the current
TAF. MVFR conditions fill back in this evening. Intermittent IFR
CIGs may fill in at times tonight/Friday morning, though MVFR FLs
should dominate across the broader area. CIGs slowly lift
Friday morning with MVFR/VFR conditions likely through the
afternoon. Rain chances slowly increase through the afternoon as a
cold front approaches the area.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Moderate to strong onshore winds will continue through Saturday with
speeds of 15-25kt and occasional gusts to 35kt. Those occasional
higher wind gusts will become more frequents Friday afternoon
through Saturday morning as a cold front approaches the region from
the west. This persistent strong onshore winds are also causing
increased seas to 6-10ft (and occasionally higher wave heights to
12ft). Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through Saturday
morning, but will likely need to extended into Sunday as moderate to
strong offshore winds develop behind the cold front and with
lingering high wave heights. There is also a Beach Hazards Statement
out through Saturday morning as the onshore winds lead to an
elevated risk of strong rip currents and abnormally high tides to
around 3.5ft above MLLW.
Mariners should remain weather-aware on Saturday as a cold front
moves through the area bringing with it a chance of strong to severe
thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and
tornadoes/waterspouts. The timing of this front in the coastal
waters will likely be during the afternoon and evening hours on
Saturday. High pressure builds in over the area Sunday with light
winds and low seas prevailing through next week.
Fowler
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
On Wednesday, April 2, four out of five climate sites (all except
Galveston) broke their records for daily high minimum temperature.
There is potential today for the double...both record high maximum
and record high minimum temperatures are in jeopardy for a few
locations. Here are today`s daily records:
Record High Maximum Temperatures:
- College Station: 90F (1939)
- Houston/Bush: 87F (2023)
- Houston/Hobby: 88F (2023)
- Palacios: 87F (1974)
- Galveston: 84F (1998)
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
- College Station: 72F (2014)
- Houston/Bush: 74F (2023)
- Houston/Hobby: 74F (2023)
- Palacios: 75F (2023)
- Galveston: 74F (2023)
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 89 65 76 / 20 50 80 90
Houston (IAH) 76 89 74 83 / 20 20 50 90
Galveston (GLS) 76 84 74 80 / 10 10 30 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ178-179-199-
200-213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ200-213-214-
226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
Beach Hazards Statement through late Friday night for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ330-335-350-
355-370-375.
&&
FXUS64 KHGX 031932
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
232 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Overall we`re still in a similar pattern to the previous day, with a
broader trough over the Desert Southwest tightening the pressure
gradient to keep a 40-60 kt LLJ overhead. Gusty winds continue this
afternoon, reaching 25 to 35 mph in spots. A Wind Advisory will be
in effect until 5 PM today for most areas along and south of the US-
59 corridor.
The parameter space for the severe weather threat today looks
similar to that of yesterday. The HREF still shows 30-60 knots of
bulk shear in place with SFC CAPE ranging from 2000-3700 J/KG in the
afternoon. SFC CIN is progged to reach -5 J/KG across the Brazos
Valley to -50 J/KG closer to the coast. Forecast soundings still
show drier midlevels with lapse rates from 7.0-8.25 degC/km. DCAPE
is over 1000 J/KG with TEI values of 25-32. Forcing is lacking
still, but with the stalled frontal boundary sagging south,
compressional heating ahead of it could enhance convection. We
already have a few showers developing over this area already as
conditions near convective temps. SPC mesoanalysis shows microburst
composite parameter values near 6-8 around this area of showers.
SPC has a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk of severe storms bordering our
northern counties this afternoon though this evening. While we`re
likely to see no more than a few showers this afternoon, it is
entirely feasible that some pulse-y storms could pop up this
afternoon. All severe hazards are on the table still, though
damaging winds and large hail will be the main concern to watch for
if any thunderstorms pull together.
On Friday the upper level trough trudges eastward. The presence of
the LLJ overhead will still bring winds gusts of 25 to 35 mph,
necessitating another Wind Advisory. The stalled frontal boundary is
expected to push southward towards the fringes of SE Texas Friday
evening, continuing southward into Saturday. Ahead of this line, the
last two HRRR runs have 25 m2s2 updraft helicity paint balls in
place over our northeastern counties near Crockett/Livingston.
Better clustering exists further northwest, though it`ll be an area
to watch Friday afternoon as we reach peak heating, especially with
a similar environment still in place. We`ll lose some instability
during the evening, potentially seeing lull in activity before
the cold front slowly makes is way into the area, mainly overnight
into early Saturday. SPC now has portions of the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods under a Slight (level 2/5) Risk of severe
weather on Friday. All severe hazards are on the table once again,
though rising SRH increases the risk of more organized storms and
or isolated tornadoes. This severe weather risk continues into
Saturday as the front continues through the area.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Main story this long term is the severe weather threat for Saturday.
A large upper level low swinging in from the Desert Southwest will
finally bring that stalled boundary that has been hanging around to
our northwest through the region on Saturday. FROPA is still looking
to occur during the morning hours (8-10am) through the Brazos
Valley, early to mid afternoon along the I-45 Corridor, and then off
to the east by the late afternoon or evening. After days of deep
southerly flow across SE Texas, PWATs will be surging to 1.6-1.9"
ahead of the front. Combine that with instability (LREF mean CAPE is
around 1500-2000+ J/kg ahead of the front) and high shear is a
recipe for strong to severe thunderstorms. Storms that develop ahead
of and along the cold front will be capable of producing damaging
wind gusts, hail, and tornadoes. So, Saturday is a day stay weather-
aware and to make sure you have ways to get warnings, if they are
issued. SPC has placed most of SE Texas in a Slight Risk (level 2 of
5) for Severe Weather with an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) to the
northeast across the TX/LA border. WPC also has a Marginal to Slight
Risk (level 1-2 of 4) across the area for Excessive Rainfall as the
isolated strong to severe storms may drop upwards of 1-2"+ of
rain which could lead to some minor flooding if they happen over
areas of poor drainage.
Once the front is through Saturday evening, the threat for severe
weather ends. And with high pressure building in behind the front we
will likely not see any additional precipitation through most of
next week.
The high temperature on Saturday will be highly dependent on the
quickness of the front. With current model guidance on FROPA timing,
have high temperatures in the low 80s along and south of I-10 and
mid to upper 70s to the north. However a slower FROPA, expect more
of the area getting into the 80s, but a quicker FROPA keeping most
of the region in the 70s. Low temperatures Saturday night will be in
the mid to upper 40s north and west of the Houston Metro and low to
mid 50s to the south and east. There will be a slow climb in
temperatures through the rest of the long term with highs on Sunday
in the upper 50s to mid 60s, then mid 60s to low 70s on Monday, mid
to upper 70s on Tuesday, and finally back to the low 80s by
Wednesday. Low temperatures will see a similar trend: generally low
to mid 40s on Sunday night and Monday night, low to mid 50s Tuesday
night, and mid to upper 50s on Wednesday night.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Moderate southerly winds gusting to 20-30 knots continue this
afternoon with MVFR/VFR conditions expected. Areas further inland
will likely scatter to VFR FL like yesterday, whereas areas
near the coast may see only short breaks in cloud cover or
potentially none at all. Isolated showers may develop in the
afternoon, though confidence it too low to include in the current
TAF. MVFR conditions fill back in this evening. Intermittent IFR
CIGs may fill in at times tonight/Friday morning, though MVFR FLs
should dominate across the broader area. CIGs slowly lift
Friday morning with MVFR/VFR conditions likely through the
afternoon. Rain chances slowly increase through the afternoon as a
cold front approaches the area.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Moderate to strong onshore winds will continue through Saturday with
speeds of 15-25kt and occasional gusts to 35kt. Those occasional
higher wind gusts will become more frequents Friday afternoon
through Saturday morning as a cold front approaches the region from
the west. This persistent strong onshore winds are also causing
increased seas to 6-10ft (and occasionally higher wave heights to
12ft). Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through Saturday
morning, but will likely need to extended into Sunday as moderate to
strong offshore winds develop behind the cold front and with
lingering high wave heights. There is also a Beach Hazards Statement
out through Saturday morning as the onshore winds lead to an
elevated risk of strong rip currents and abnormally high tides to
around 3.5ft above MLLW.
Mariners should remain weather-aware on Saturday as a cold front
moves through the area bringing with it a chance of strong to severe
thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and
tornadoes/waterspouts. The timing of this front in the coastal
waters will likely be during the afternoon and evening hours on
Saturday. High pressure builds in over the area Sunday with light
winds and low seas prevailing through next week.
Fowler
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
On Wednesday, April 2, four out of five climate sites (all except
Galveston) broke their records for daily high minimum temperature.
There is potential today for the double...both record high maximum
and record high minimum temperatures are in jeopardy for a few
locations. Here are today`s daily records:
Record High Maximum Temperatures:
- College Station: 90F (1939)
- Houston/Bush: 87F (2023)
- Houston/Hobby: 88F (2023)
- Palacios: 87F (1974)
- Galveston: 84F (1998)
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
- College Station: 72F (2014)
- Houston/Bush: 74F (2023)
- Houston/Hobby: 74F (2023)
- Palacios: 75F (2023)
- Galveston: 74F (2023)
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 89 65 76 / 20 50 80 90
Houston (IAH) 76 89 74 83 / 20 20 50 90
Galveston (GLS) 76 84 74 80 / 10 10 30 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ178-179-199-
200-213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ200-213-214-
226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
Beach Hazards Statement through late Friday night for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ330-335-350-
355-370-375.
&&
I am logged in, so not "guest viewing" but still see a f'ed up version of the posts
this site is not working correctly :(
from BlueSky:
"There's some knee jerk reactions here. And I get it. This is bad, believe me, and it's potentially only the tip of the iceberg.
But let's deconstruct this just a bit to temper some of the panic.
1. Louisville is short on staff. Fact. Many WFOs are, some more than others. [b](HGX is a mess.)
[/b]"
my heart goes out to all the professionals at HGX - appreciate y'all
this site is not working correctly :(
from BlueSky:
"There's some knee jerk reactions here. And I get it. This is bad, believe me, and it's potentially only the tip of the iceberg.
But let's deconstruct this just a bit to temper some of the panic.
1. Louisville is short on staff. Fact. Many WFOs are, some more than others. [b](HGX is a mess.)
[/b]"
my heart goes out to all the professionals at HGX - appreciate y'all
LOL i will post them if I'm lucky enough to get some snow.tireman4 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 03, 2025 10:36 amdon wrote: ↑Thu Apr 03, 2025 10:21 am We have a lot of rain on the way up here over the next few days. I’ve picked up almost 1 inch already from the first round of storms.
There’s also some model support for a period of snow this weekend. Though I would like to see more data before buying into the snow yet.
If you get snow, we need pictures Don!!
I’m thinking after this weekend we’ll get a good 10 day stretch of nice quiet weather, but towards the middle of the month the heat and humidity should be back along with the chance for severe weather in our area.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
177
FXUS64 KHGX 041126
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025
On Thursday, we set record high minimum temperatures at ALL of
our climate sites. Based on how temperatures are trending this
morning (still in the mid to upper 70s as of ~3am), we`re going
to break a few more of those records today as well. Temperatures
as you walk out the door this morning will again be in the mid 70s
and with PW values above the 90th percentile, we`ll continue to
see those misty conditions. Right in that area where it`s not
enough for an umbrella, but just enough to be an annoyance. You
should keep an umbrella with you though for later today. Latest
surface analysis shows the quasi-stationary frontal boundary right
along the northern edge of the Brazos Valley, but it will retreat
50+ miles northward later this morning before reapproaching again
going into the afternoon.
As the front reapproaches the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods this
afternoon, the 00Z/06Z CAM`s show a line of showers with a few
embedded thunderstorms developing along the boundary. While this
is going on, the maxima of a 45-55 kt LLJ will be passing through
the region from south to north. The HRRR and the NAM are
indicating that we could see some convection pop up along the I-10
corridor this afternoon as that area falls into the left entrance
region providing additional lift through UL divergence. The
capping inversion is stronger further to the south, so it will be
a matter of if there is enough lift to overcome it. Convection
along the front is a safer bet, and if a storm is able to reach
its maximum potential then it could become capable of producing
all severe hazards. The SPC has a slight risk of severe weather
(level 2 of 5) for areas generally north of a Brenham-Huntsville-
Onalaska line and a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) between the
previously mentioned line and a Columbus-Conroe-Livingston line.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary hazards in any
of the stronger storms, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out.
Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the mid to upper 80s
once again...and expect it to be another windy day as well. The
previously mentioned LLJ is expected to bring even windier
conditions later this morning into the afternoon, so another Wind
Advisory is in effect for the central and southern portions of
Southeast Texas from 7am-7pm. If winds overperform, I wouldn`t be
surprised to see the Wind Advisory expanded further northward. As
the front FINALLY begins to push into the region late tonight,
we`ll see rain chances climb along with a drop in temperatures in
the Brazos Valley. Low temperatures up there will be in the low to
mid 60s behind the front. Ahead of the front, another night of
near record high minimum temperatures as we bottom out in the low
to mid 70s...but there`s change on the horizon.
The cold front will continue pushing through Southeast Texas on
Saturday morning into the early afternoon. The latest CAM`s depict a
line of showers/storms right along the frontal boundary...and
some of the embedded thunderstorms have the potential to become
strong to severe as they move through. Once again, all hazard
types will be possible in any of the stronger storms but damaging
winds and large hail will be the primary hazards. For Saturday,
SPC has the majority of Southeast Texas in a slight risk of
severe weather but parts of Polk County are in an enhanced risk
(level 3 of 5). Just think of it as, the potential for storms to
become strong to severe increases the further east you are due to
a more favorable overlap of shear and instability. The front will
push offshore by the late afternoon/early evening hours, but we
could see some lingering showers into late Saturday night as an
upper level low tracks through the state. That takes us right
into Saturday night`s temperatures which look to be the coolest
we`ve had in about two weeks as we bottom out in the 40s/50s.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025
Cooler and drier conditions to start the new week. Strong cold air
advection will take place behind the departing front, leading to
cooler northwest winds by Sunday. In addition, the main upper trough
will be moving north of the region; therefore, some wraparound
clouds will be expected mainly in the morning. Lastly, windy
conditions will continue. Tight pressure gradient will persist
behind the FROPA, resulting in breezy to windy conditions. Breezy
northwest winds and mostly cloudy skies will result a cold Sunday
morning with wind chills in the 30s across the Brazos Valley.
Temperatures will only climb into the upper 50s across our northern
counties to mid 60s across the coastal counties during the day.
Skies should gradually clear, especially across our southern
counties as the main upper forcing moves to the east. Make sure to
keep your jacket handy as temperatures are expected to drop into the
upper 30s to upper 40s Sunday night into Monday.
Winds will be weaker by Monday as pressure gradient relaxes and
surface high pressure moves overhead. A gradual warming trend is
expected after Tuesday as high pressure shifts to our east and
southerly flow returns to the region. Highs will gradually warm into
low 80s by the end of the week. Overnight lows mainly in the 50s and
60s. Ridging aloft and PWs below 1.0 inch will result in a
relatively dry week.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025
MVFR conditions will prevail throughout most of the morning. As
winds begin to pick up, some sites could see intermittent periods
of VFR conditions later this morning into the early
afternoon. Southerly to southeasterly winds will be gusty again
today with sustained winds around 15-20 kt with 25-30+ kt gusts
through the afternoon. A line of showers with a few storms is
expected to develop just north of the area and drift into our
northern sites later this afternoon. For now this has been covered
in a PROB30 group as confidence on thunderstorm development is low
at the moment. This is especially the case for areas further south
where some 00Z high resolution model guidance is depicting some
potential convection. However, model guidance has backed off on
this solution during the 06Z run...but it`s worth mentioning that
there`s a non-zero chance for some convection to develop just east
of the Houston metro area this afternoon. Ceilings fill back in
overnight with widespread MVFR to IFR conditions prevailing.
Chances for showers/storms increase as a frontal boundary begins
to move in from the northwest on early Saturday morning.
Confidence in thunderstorms is much higher tomorrow along the
front, so be sure to keep an eye on future TAF updates for timing.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025
Difficult to hazardous marine and beach conditions continue this
week and will likely persist into the weekend. A long fetch of
moderate to strong winds across the western Gulf will continue to
develop seas around 6 to 10+ ft along the Upper TX coast. Seas will
occasionally reach 12+ft as a cold front moves through by late
Saturday afternoon/early evening. Small Craft Advisories remain in
effect for the Bays and all Gulf waters. Rain and storms will be on
the increase on Saturday along and ahead the cold front.
High water levels during times of high tide will potentially lead to
minor coastal flooding along Gulf-facing beaches. Areas more prone
to be impacted by minor flooding could be those near Highway 87/124
along the Bolivar Peninsula, Western Galveston Island, Bluewater
Highway and Surfside. In addition, there is a high rip current risk
along all Gulf-facing beaches. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in
effect.
JM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 66 75 45 / 40 70 90 10
Houston (IAH) 88 74 83 51 / 20 30 90 30
Galveston (GLS) 83 74 80 54 / 10 10 70 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
Beach Hazards Statement through late Saturday night for
TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ330-335-350-
355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...JM
FXUS64 KHGX 041126
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025
On Thursday, we set record high minimum temperatures at ALL of
our climate sites. Based on how temperatures are trending this
morning (still in the mid to upper 70s as of ~3am), we`re going
to break a few more of those records today as well. Temperatures
as you walk out the door this morning will again be in the mid 70s
and with PW values above the 90th percentile, we`ll continue to
see those misty conditions. Right in that area where it`s not
enough for an umbrella, but just enough to be an annoyance. You
should keep an umbrella with you though for later today. Latest
surface analysis shows the quasi-stationary frontal boundary right
along the northern edge of the Brazos Valley, but it will retreat
50+ miles northward later this morning before reapproaching again
going into the afternoon.
As the front reapproaches the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods this
afternoon, the 00Z/06Z CAM`s show a line of showers with a few
embedded thunderstorms developing along the boundary. While this
is going on, the maxima of a 45-55 kt LLJ will be passing through
the region from south to north. The HRRR and the NAM are
indicating that we could see some convection pop up along the I-10
corridor this afternoon as that area falls into the left entrance
region providing additional lift through UL divergence. The
capping inversion is stronger further to the south, so it will be
a matter of if there is enough lift to overcome it. Convection
along the front is a safer bet, and if a storm is able to reach
its maximum potential then it could become capable of producing
all severe hazards. The SPC has a slight risk of severe weather
(level 2 of 5) for areas generally north of a Brenham-Huntsville-
Onalaska line and a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) between the
previously mentioned line and a Columbus-Conroe-Livingston line.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary hazards in any
of the stronger storms, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out.
Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the mid to upper 80s
once again...and expect it to be another windy day as well. The
previously mentioned LLJ is expected to bring even windier
conditions later this morning into the afternoon, so another Wind
Advisory is in effect for the central and southern portions of
Southeast Texas from 7am-7pm. If winds overperform, I wouldn`t be
surprised to see the Wind Advisory expanded further northward. As
the front FINALLY begins to push into the region late tonight,
we`ll see rain chances climb along with a drop in temperatures in
the Brazos Valley. Low temperatures up there will be in the low to
mid 60s behind the front. Ahead of the front, another night of
near record high minimum temperatures as we bottom out in the low
to mid 70s...but there`s change on the horizon.
The cold front will continue pushing through Southeast Texas on
Saturday morning into the early afternoon. The latest CAM`s depict a
line of showers/storms right along the frontal boundary...and
some of the embedded thunderstorms have the potential to become
strong to severe as they move through. Once again, all hazard
types will be possible in any of the stronger storms but damaging
winds and large hail will be the primary hazards. For Saturday,
SPC has the majority of Southeast Texas in a slight risk of
severe weather but parts of Polk County are in an enhanced risk
(level 3 of 5). Just think of it as, the potential for storms to
become strong to severe increases the further east you are due to
a more favorable overlap of shear and instability. The front will
push offshore by the late afternoon/early evening hours, but we
could see some lingering showers into late Saturday night as an
upper level low tracks through the state. That takes us right
into Saturday night`s temperatures which look to be the coolest
we`ve had in about two weeks as we bottom out in the 40s/50s.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025
Cooler and drier conditions to start the new week. Strong cold air
advection will take place behind the departing front, leading to
cooler northwest winds by Sunday. In addition, the main upper trough
will be moving north of the region; therefore, some wraparound
clouds will be expected mainly in the morning. Lastly, windy
conditions will continue. Tight pressure gradient will persist
behind the FROPA, resulting in breezy to windy conditions. Breezy
northwest winds and mostly cloudy skies will result a cold Sunday
morning with wind chills in the 30s across the Brazos Valley.
Temperatures will only climb into the upper 50s across our northern
counties to mid 60s across the coastal counties during the day.
Skies should gradually clear, especially across our southern
counties as the main upper forcing moves to the east. Make sure to
keep your jacket handy as temperatures are expected to drop into the
upper 30s to upper 40s Sunday night into Monday.
Winds will be weaker by Monday as pressure gradient relaxes and
surface high pressure moves overhead. A gradual warming trend is
expected after Tuesday as high pressure shifts to our east and
southerly flow returns to the region. Highs will gradually warm into
low 80s by the end of the week. Overnight lows mainly in the 50s and
60s. Ridging aloft and PWs below 1.0 inch will result in a
relatively dry week.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025
MVFR conditions will prevail throughout most of the morning. As
winds begin to pick up, some sites could see intermittent periods
of VFR conditions later this morning into the early
afternoon. Southerly to southeasterly winds will be gusty again
today with sustained winds around 15-20 kt with 25-30+ kt gusts
through the afternoon. A line of showers with a few storms is
expected to develop just north of the area and drift into our
northern sites later this afternoon. For now this has been covered
in a PROB30 group as confidence on thunderstorm development is low
at the moment. This is especially the case for areas further south
where some 00Z high resolution model guidance is depicting some
potential convection. However, model guidance has backed off on
this solution during the 06Z run...but it`s worth mentioning that
there`s a non-zero chance for some convection to develop just east
of the Houston metro area this afternoon. Ceilings fill back in
overnight with widespread MVFR to IFR conditions prevailing.
Chances for showers/storms increase as a frontal boundary begins
to move in from the northwest on early Saturday morning.
Confidence in thunderstorms is much higher tomorrow along the
front, so be sure to keep an eye on future TAF updates for timing.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025
Difficult to hazardous marine and beach conditions continue this
week and will likely persist into the weekend. A long fetch of
moderate to strong winds across the western Gulf will continue to
develop seas around 6 to 10+ ft along the Upper TX coast. Seas will
occasionally reach 12+ft as a cold front moves through by late
Saturday afternoon/early evening. Small Craft Advisories remain in
effect for the Bays and all Gulf waters. Rain and storms will be on
the increase on Saturday along and ahead the cold front.
High water levels during times of high tide will potentially lead to
minor coastal flooding along Gulf-facing beaches. Areas more prone
to be impacted by minor flooding could be those near Highway 87/124
along the Bolivar Peninsula, Western Galveston Island, Bluewater
Highway and Surfside. In addition, there is a high rip current risk
along all Gulf-facing beaches. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in
effect.
JM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 66 75 45 / 40 70 90 10
Houston (IAH) 88 74 83 51 / 20 30 90 30
Galveston (GLS) 83 74 80 54 / 10 10 70 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
Beach Hazards Statement through late Saturday night for
TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ330-335-350-
355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...JM
Childress will see some snow. It's going to be close, Don.
Headed back from 58 degrees in Plano. This should be fun…
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
^Hook echo near Athens toward Palestine. East of I-45 heading toward Tyler. Could get a little rough south of Corsicana.
Hook echo near Richland moving across I-45.
Tornado Watch
4/4/2025 14:26 CDT through 4/4/2025 21:00 CDT
Tornado Watch issued April 4 at 2:26PM CDT until April 4 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Houston/Galveston TX
The National Weather Service has issued Tornado Watch 114 in
effect until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following areas
In Texas this watch includes 7 counties
In southeast Texas
Brazos Burleson Grimes
Houston Madison Trinity
Walker
This includes the cities of Bryan, Caldwell, College Station,
Crockett, Groveton, Huntsville, Madisonville, Navasota,
Somerville, and Trinity.
Sender NWS Houston/Galveston TX
Sent 4/4/2025 14:26 CDT
4/4/2025 14:26 CDT through 4/4/2025 21:00 CDT
Tornado Watch issued April 4 at 2:26PM CDT until April 4 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Houston/Galveston TX
The National Weather Service has issued Tornado Watch 114 in
effect until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following areas
In Texas this watch includes 7 counties
In southeast Texas
Brazos Burleson Grimes
Houston Madison Trinity
Walker
This includes the cities of Bryan, Caldwell, College Station,
Crockett, Groveton, Huntsville, Madisonville, Navasota,
Somerville, and Trinity.
Sender NWS Houston/Galveston TX
Sent 4/4/2025 14:26 CDT
A potent cell is forming near Huntsville. Although weakening is expected toward evening, keep an eye out just in case.
Made it home safely. South of Corsicana, the pitch black sky turned turquoise and white in front of my as Apple Maps flashed "Severe Thunderstorm Warning Ahead." I was pretty concerned...
White knuckled with flashers for awhile, but I punched through with no hail, thank God. Phew! I saw a low base and rotation on the backside. Pretty sure I saw a couple chasers on the frontage road, too.
White knuckled with flashers for awhile, but I punched through with no hail, thank God. Phew! I saw a low base and rotation on the backside. Pretty sure I saw a couple chasers on the frontage road, too.
Yeah, there was definitely spin between Corsicana and near Richland. Glad you made it unscathed.jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 5:36 pm Made it home safely. South of Corsicana, the pitch black sky turned turquoise and white in front of my as Apple Maps flashed "Severe Thunderstorm Warning Ahead." I was pretty concerned...
White knuckled with flashers for awhile, but I punched through with no hail, thank God. Phew! I saw a low base and rotation on the backside. Pretty sure I saw a couple chasers on the frontage road, too.
A line of cells from 5 miles NW of my front yard all the way to south of Chicago appear to be bypassing us. 0.05 in. of rain IMFY. I'd be disappointed, but it is going as expected. *Maybe* a broken line of showers tonight or tomorrow as the trough pushes the FROPA through.
While it's possible that the trough may come to the rescue re: rain, I'm not getting our hopes up.
However, our reward is cooler weather and NW flow aloft!! all week. Score.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
319 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025
...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025
Main Takeaways:
- There could be an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm in the
Brazos Valley through the Piney Woods region this afternoon and
evening. A Tornado Watch is in effect through 9pm for these
areas.
- Wind Advisory continues through this evening along and
south of I-10 due to wind gusts to 35mph.
- Increased risk of severe thunderstorms Saturday as a cold front
moves through the area. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and
tornadoes will be possible ahead of and along the cold front.
Severe weather potential increases from west to east with the
threat greatest east of I-45.
- Hazardous marine conditions are anticipated through the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025
That stationary boundary that`s been hanging around northwest of the
region will continue to meander there today, but a large upper-level
trough currently digging through the Desert Southwest will finally
be the push to move this front through the area tomorrow. Before we
get into the details for tomorrow, let`s look at today. A tight
pressure gradient across the region will lead to continued gusty
southerly winds to around 30-35mph - thus, the Wind Advisory
continues into the evening for areas along and south of I-10. Wind
gusts lower after sunset for most of the area, however will remain
elevated along the Barrier Islands. The Wind Advisory may need to
be extended through tonight for those areas.
There could be an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm developing
this afternoon/evening in the Brazos Valley into the Piney Woods
region as daytime heating triggers storms near that stalled boundary
to the north. If any strong to severe storms develop, then they could
produce damaging wind gusts, a brief tornado, or hail. A Tornado Watch
is in effect through 9pm for Burleson, Brazos, Grimes, Houston, Madison,
Trinity, and Walker counties. That stalled boundary finally begins its
progression through the region as a cold front on Saturday as that
upper level low moves through the region. There will be showers and
storms developing ahead of and along the cold front, and a few of
those storms could become strong to severe. The line of activity
along the front will be more broken as it comes in from the
northwest, but will increase as the front slides eastwards across
the area.
Areas east of I-45 will have a better chance for having high CAPE
and high shear overlapping each other (and thus a better chance for
severe thunderstorms), but cannot out-rule an isolated severe storm
to the west. All severe thunderstorm hazards (damaging wind gusts,
large hail, and tornadoes) will be possible if any severe storms
develop. Also cannot out-rule the possibility of locally heavy
rainfall (rain rates of 1-3" per hour in the stronger storms)
leading to minor flooding in areas of poor drainage. FROPA timing is
looking to occur between 8-10am in the Bryan-College Station area,
between Noon-3pm for the Houston Metro, and then exiting off the
coast/to the east between 5-8pm. Once the front is through the area,
the severe weather threat ends. SPC maintains the Slight Risk (level
2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms tomorrow for most areas west of I-45
and areas south of I-10, but does has expanded the Enhanced Risk
(level 3 of 5) to include areas east of I-45 and north of of I-10
(which is basically our northeastern quadrant of our CWA). WPC also
has the I-45 Corridor in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive
Rainfall, and the Piney Woods in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4).
The southerly flow today combined with southwesterly flow aloft will
lead to well above normal temperatures across the region. Highs this
afternoon will be in the upper 80s for most of the area with some
spots possibly hitting 90 degrees if there is enough breaks in the
clouds. The unseasonably warm (and near record warmth) will continue
tonight with low temperatures in the low to mid 70s across the
region (though the northern parts of Burleson County up through
northern Houston County may dip into the 60s if there is enough
shower activity to cool things down). Temperatures tomorrow will
largely be determined by where the cold front is by peak heating
hours (early/mid afternoon) and right now I have it positioned right
near the Houston Metro. High temperatures behind the front will be
in the 70s, but then rising into the low to mid 80s ahead of the
front. If the front is slower than expected, then more of the area
will rise into the 80s, but if it is faster than expected more highs
to stay in the 70s. Overnight lows tomorrow night will be MUCH
cooler than the past few, with lows in the 40s north and west of the
Houston Metro, and in the low to mid 50s in the Metro and along the
coast.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025
The front will be well off the coast by Sunday morning, but
some embedded disturbances in the southwesterly flow aloft may
generate some post frontal showers for the first part of the day
if there is any lingering moisture to work with. Have added some
20% placeholders for now...some guidance suggests more - and some
less. Otherwise, a drier airmass and much cooler wx is anticipated
to filter in Sun afternoon & Monday with lows 38-45 and highs 62-68.
A gradual warm-up, though still seasonable with very comfortable
conditions, is anticipated for much of next week with a prevailing dry
nw flow aloft. 47
&&
However, our reward is cooler weather and NW flow aloft!! all week. Score.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
319 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025
...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025
Main Takeaways:
- There could be an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm in the
Brazos Valley through the Piney Woods region this afternoon and
evening. A Tornado Watch is in effect through 9pm for these
areas.
- Wind Advisory continues through this evening along and
south of I-10 due to wind gusts to 35mph.
- Increased risk of severe thunderstorms Saturday as a cold front
moves through the area. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and
tornadoes will be possible ahead of and along the cold front.
Severe weather potential increases from west to east with the
threat greatest east of I-45.
- Hazardous marine conditions are anticipated through the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025
That stationary boundary that`s been hanging around northwest of the
region will continue to meander there today, but a large upper-level
trough currently digging through the Desert Southwest will finally
be the push to move this front through the area tomorrow. Before we
get into the details for tomorrow, let`s look at today. A tight
pressure gradient across the region will lead to continued gusty
southerly winds to around 30-35mph - thus, the Wind Advisory
continues into the evening for areas along and south of I-10. Wind
gusts lower after sunset for most of the area, however will remain
elevated along the Barrier Islands. The Wind Advisory may need to
be extended through tonight for those areas.
There could be an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm developing
this afternoon/evening in the Brazos Valley into the Piney Woods
region as daytime heating triggers storms near that stalled boundary
to the north. If any strong to severe storms develop, then they could
produce damaging wind gusts, a brief tornado, or hail. A Tornado Watch
is in effect through 9pm for Burleson, Brazos, Grimes, Houston, Madison,
Trinity, and Walker counties. That stalled boundary finally begins its
progression through the region as a cold front on Saturday as that
upper level low moves through the region. There will be showers and
storms developing ahead of and along the cold front, and a few of
those storms could become strong to severe. The line of activity
along the front will be more broken as it comes in from the
northwest, but will increase as the front slides eastwards across
the area.
Areas east of I-45 will have a better chance for having high CAPE
and high shear overlapping each other (and thus a better chance for
severe thunderstorms), but cannot out-rule an isolated severe storm
to the west. All severe thunderstorm hazards (damaging wind gusts,
large hail, and tornadoes) will be possible if any severe storms
develop. Also cannot out-rule the possibility of locally heavy
rainfall (rain rates of 1-3" per hour in the stronger storms)
leading to minor flooding in areas of poor drainage. FROPA timing is
looking to occur between 8-10am in the Bryan-College Station area,
between Noon-3pm for the Houston Metro, and then exiting off the
coast/to the east between 5-8pm. Once the front is through the area,
the severe weather threat ends. SPC maintains the Slight Risk (level
2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms tomorrow for most areas west of I-45
and areas south of I-10, but does has expanded the Enhanced Risk
(level 3 of 5) to include areas east of I-45 and north of of I-10
(which is basically our northeastern quadrant of our CWA). WPC also
has the I-45 Corridor in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive
Rainfall, and the Piney Woods in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4).
The southerly flow today combined with southwesterly flow aloft will
lead to well above normal temperatures across the region. Highs this
afternoon will be in the upper 80s for most of the area with some
spots possibly hitting 90 degrees if there is enough breaks in the
clouds. The unseasonably warm (and near record warmth) will continue
tonight with low temperatures in the low to mid 70s across the
region (though the northern parts of Burleson County up through
northern Houston County may dip into the 60s if there is enough
shower activity to cool things down). Temperatures tomorrow will
largely be determined by where the cold front is by peak heating
hours (early/mid afternoon) and right now I have it positioned right
near the Houston Metro. High temperatures behind the front will be
in the 70s, but then rising into the low to mid 80s ahead of the
front. If the front is slower than expected, then more of the area
will rise into the 80s, but if it is faster than expected more highs
to stay in the 70s. Overnight lows tomorrow night will be MUCH
cooler than the past few, with lows in the 40s north and west of the
Houston Metro, and in the low to mid 50s in the Metro and along the
coast.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025
The front will be well off the coast by Sunday morning, but
some embedded disturbances in the southwesterly flow aloft may
generate some post frontal showers for the first part of the day
if there is any lingering moisture to work with. Have added some
20% placeholders for now...some guidance suggests more - and some
less. Otherwise, a drier airmass and much cooler wx is anticipated
to filter in Sun afternoon & Monday with lows 38-45 and highs 62-68.
A gradual warm-up, though still seasonable with very comfortable
conditions, is anticipated for much of next week with a prevailing dry
nw flow aloft. 47
&&