March 2025

[Cpv17]

Models backing off on rain chances around the 5th, cut off low gets too sheared out, been the trend towards that the last several days

Yep, it all stays N of here. Started noticing that yesterday on the models. Looks fairly dry here now.

[don]

Heads up, the HRRR is showing supercells in SE Texas later today. The SPC may need to extend the slight risk of severe weather further south...

refcmp.us_state_tx_se.png

refcmp.us_state_tx_se (1).png

refcmp.us_state_tx_se (2).png

[DoctorMu]

Nothing yesterday. A measly 0.56 inches altogether. Then we knew chances were iffy NW of Harris Co.

There is a sneak attack from a rogue cell to our west. We'll see if it reaches here.

[don]

Models backing off on rain chances around the 5th, cut off low gets too sheared out, been the trend towards that the last several days

Yep, it all stays N of here. Started noticing that yesterday on the models. Looks fairly dry here now.

It also looks like the strong southwest flow aloft may create capping issues for the southern half of the state.

[DoctorMu]

The vector and dark clouds look north of our yard.

[DoctorMu]

Capital B Capital U Capital S Capital T

[DoctorMu]

Looking at the 12z models. I'll save us all emotional trauma and call April 4/5 a BUST as well.

Cooler temps behind the April 4/5 FROPA...will take that.

[DoctorMu]

Models backing off on rain chances around the 5th, cut off low gets too sheared out, been the trend towards that the last several days

Yep, it all stays N of here. Started noticing that yesterday on the models. Looks fairly dry here now.

It also looks like the strong southwest flow aloft may create capping issues for the southern half of the state.

Yeah, probably not much rain south of Hearne.

[Stratton20]

first two weeks of april look to be below normal temperatures wise, could see some mid 60’s for highs, definitely will be nice to get a break from this awful warmth

[jasons2k]

Mesoscale Discussion 0309
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0608 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Areas affected...East Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 302308Z - 310145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat appears likely to develop across parts of east Texas early this evening. Isolated large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado threat will be possible. New weather watch issuance may eventually be needed.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving through north-central Texas, with a very moist airmass located ahead of the front over much of east Texas. Surface dewpoints within this moist airmass are in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. The RAP shows strong instability, with MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg. In addition, the latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving into central Texas. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent will increase across east Texas, aiding convective initiation. It appears that initiation will take place over the next hour. RAP forecast soundings early this evening in east Texas have 0-6 km shear of 45 to 50 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8 to 8.5 C/km, suggesting that large hail will be likely with supercell development. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Supercells may also produce severe gusts, and be accompanied by an isolated tornado threat.

..Broyles/Mosier.. 03/30/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

IMG_0014.png

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

[DoctorMu]

The DP has hit 71°F. It sucks.

The radar is a definite maybe with a hail-filled cell way east of I-45 headed north of Lufkin.

We'll see a bout anything here. Looks dubious outside to me.

[Cpv17]

It’s disgustingly sticky out there today. Haven’t felt it this humid since probably last fall.

[jasons2k]

I’m actually getting a decent little shower from this cell popping up right now. Could the shortwave I saw this morning on old-fashioned satellite loops be breaking the cap?

[tireman4]

930
FXUS64 KHGX 311107
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
607 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

A weak cold front will sag southward across the CWA today, gradually
pushing lower dew points into the region. Therefore, much of the
region will feel a little less humid by the afternoon. However,
may of us will still find ourselves south of the front this
morning. Those that do will experience areas of fog and perhaps
even some drizzle or a few rain showers. Our northern counties are
expected to be a little cooler than recent days, with highs in
the mid/upper 70s. However, I think much of the rest of the CWA
will hold on to highs in the 80s. Southern / interior coastal
counties may be in the upper 80s this afternoon. These
temperatures are dependent on the assumption that clouds will
break in the afternoon. If it takes longer for the clouds to
break, then my forecast afternoon temps could be a little too
warm.

The aforementioned front is expected to stall near the coast later
today, before pushing northward Monday night. Warm, humid, Gulf
air will push northward in its wake. Fog may occur along and ahead
of the front. By Tuesday, the front lifts well to our north while
a deepening low over the Central Plains enhances onshore flow.
This should set the stage for a warm, humid, and breezy Tuesday
with highs generally in the low 80s.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Temperatures continue to rise on Wednesday and remain high through
Friday with high temperatures getting into the upper 80s to low
90s for most of the region (the coast will be in the low to mid
80s). Heat indicies will be in the mid to possibly upper 90s as
southerly flow pumps dew points into the low to mid 70s across the
region. Overnight lows will be running around 20 degrees above
normal with temperatures only getting down into the low to mid
70s.

There will be a stalled boundary near the Red River Valley
through the second half of the week that will be triggering
showers and thunderstorms north of our region. However, there is a
chance that this boundary wobbles south enough to bring some
scattered storms down into the Piney Woods Thursday and Friday as
some weak shortwave trough move over head. A large upper-level
low moving through the Desert Southwest this week will move into
the Southern Plains this weekend. This will push that stalled
boundary thats been hanging around to our north into SE Texas
increasing rain chances for our region. The increased cloud cover
and rain chances will cool temperatures down slightly on Saturday
with cooler/drier air filtering in behind the front on Sunday.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Drier air will slowly filter southward behind a frontal boundary
today, resulting in a gradual trend from MVFR to VFR by late
morning and early afternoon. Conditions will improve from north to
south. Areas of IFR are occurring this morning, especially near
theh coast. Even those areas are expected to improve to VFR,
though it will take longer. Winds will increase somewhat from the
north today before becoming more variable overnight. The
aforementioned front is expected to retreat back to the north
overnight, bringing a chance of lower vis/cigs late overnignt.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Patchy, but dense at times, fog has developing in the near shore
waters and lower Bays and will persist through the mid morning
hours - so a Marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect. Expect
improvements this afternoon (similar to yesterday), but fog will
again be possible tonight into Tuesday morning as a weak, stalled
boundary nearby will cause light/variable winds increasing the
fog development potential. Southeasterly winds around 15kt will
begin on Tuesday, which combined with rising temperatures should
limit fog development Tuesday night - but, can`t out rule an
isolated patch of fog here or there. This onshore flow strengthens
to around 205kt by Wednesday and continue through Thursday. The
persistent moderate to strong onshore winds will also lead to
increasing wave heights midweek to around 4-7ft on Wednesday and
then 6-9ft by Thursday and continuing into Saturday.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 59 83 70 / 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 85 66 83 72 / 10 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 69 80 71 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335-
350-355.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Fowler

[DoctorMu]

FROPA has come through. Temps in the 60s with a light northerly breeze. DP in the 50s.

Enjoy it while it lasts - Tomorrow begins the Big Yuck for the rest of the week. No relief until Saturday. A big maybe on rain then.

[tireman4]

The Eyewall

The Eyewall
Near record rainfall possible, with flooding concerns growing in the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys this week
By Matt Lanza on March 31, 2025

Yesterday we jumped into the thought process behind the flooding concerns for this week. The update today is not much better. Over the last 30 days, rainfall has actually been manageable in the Ohio Valley and points south, with most areas seeing near normal or slightly below normal rains.


Percent of normal rainfall since March 1st. Red = drier than usual.
You can see that most of Kentucky has been slightly below average, with much drier conditions to the west into Arkansas and Missouri. Yesterday's rainfall is missing from here, but in general, the theme has been at or slightly below average since early March.

It's been another story in 2025 as a whole. We had terrible flooding in Kentucky earlier this year. Soils still haven't entirely recovered from the wet start to the year, and you can see it in soil moisture readings today.


Soil moisture anomalies before yesterday's thunderstorms were already higher than normal.
So, we look at the antecedent conditions ahead of a heavy rain event to get a sense of how much water can be absorbed initially. And the answer here is, "some but not that much." Unfortunately, it's not just one round of rain we're expecting in the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys but rather several rounds between Wednesday and Saturday. Yes, there is a notable severe weather risk. But the flooding risk needs to be stressed a lot.

Not only is it significant, but it's also potentially historic. Below is a table of the 5-day rainfall forecast from Monday morning's run of the NWS National Blend of Models (NBM) for some Mid-South and Ohio Valley cities, as compared to their 5-day record rainfall totals historically. Currently, both Paducah and Jonesboro are forecast to exceed their prior records, while Evansville and Dyersburg, TN are only an inch off records.

Location Forecast Wed-Sun Standing 5-day rain record
Little Rock, AR 9.5" 12.9" (1882)
Evansville, IN 9.8" 10.88" (1910)
Dyersburg, TN 9.9" 10.55" (2016)
Cape Girardeau, MO 10.4" 14.51" (2011)
Jonesboro, AR 10.8" 10.0" (1937)
Paducah, KY 11.0" 10.63" (1983)
So this is not just me saying it's going to rain a lot.

The culprit is a cold front that is going to drop into the Midwest and Mid-South on Wednesday afternoon. As this happens, it's going to run smack into a building ridge of high pressure over the Southeast that will be approaching all-time April records.


Near-record 500 mb heights for April are likely in the Southeast and off the East Coast. This will force the cold front over the Midwest and Mid-South to stall. (PolarWx.com)
This will slow or halt the progression of the cold front, forcing it to stall out over the middle of the country, extending from roughly northeast Texas, across Arkansas and into the Ohio Valley. With a stalled front, and atmospheric moisture running very much above normal in this area, you have a recipe for a multi-round heavy rain event. The exact timing and specifics of each round are tough to pin down, but we know this much: There is a strong model signal for copious amounts of rain in the area between about Arkansas and Ohio. And the flooding risk is high enough to warrant three straight days of moderate excessive rainfall outlooks (level 3/4 Wednesday and 3/3 Thursday and Friday) from the WPC. I would expect at least one or two high risks to be issued when we approach later this week.


Wednesday's excessive rainfall outlook includes a moderate risk (level 3 of 4) from northeast Arkansas through southwest Indiana. This area expands farther and wider on Thursday.
The day 4 and 5 moderate risks indicate pretty high confidence in significant flooding potential. The current NWS Weather Prediction Center outlook for total rainfall shows a massive area of 8 to 10 inches of rain through the weekend.


Rain totals of 6 to 12 inches with higher amounts possible cover a huge swath from northeast Texas through southwest Ohio.
This is going to be a high impact, wide ranging, significant regional flood event. So how can this go wrong? Well, for one, you could see focused areas of rainfall embedded within the broader area, so we see some places forecast with 6 to 12 inches to see more like 2 to 4 inches with bullseyes of 10 inches or more. Much of this will depend on the strength of the Southeast ridge and where exactly the front stalls. For example, if the front ends up stalling farther north than anticipated, places like Dayton or Indianapolis or even St. Louis could see much higher rain totals, whereas if the front stalls farther south, Memphis, Nashville, or central Kentucky end up in the bullseye. That's a shift that's entirely within reason. So at this point while the general shape of the rainfall forecast should go unchanged, the exact placement of those bullseyes may waver some between now and Sunday.

And yes, in addition to the flooding, there is a significant severe weather risk, especially on Wednesday.


The Storm Prediction Center forecast for Wednesday shows an enhanced risk (level 3/5) for the area from northeast Texas into the Great Lakes.
This risk is covered pretty heavily elsewhere. I'll point you in particular to my friend Alan Gerard's Substack, which will go in depth on all these threats in the days ahead.

[tireman4]

669
FXUS64 KHGX 312000
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
300 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Temperatures thus far today have sat a few degrees under what was
initially expected, with most of Greater Houston in the low 80s and
the northern zones in the 70s (Palacios being the outlier at 87).
This is thanks in large part to the slightly further southward
progression of what is now a stalled frontal boundary along the
immediate coast, which has allowed for some modest "cold" advection
in its wake. The frontal boundary is expected to push northward
overnight and into tomorrow, returning the synoptic pattern to a
typical onshore flow regime that will bring us a warm and humid
remainder of the week. Still, moisture transport will take some time
to being up surface dew points and as such it should feel ever so
slightly less sticky heading out the door tomorrow with dew points
still in the 60s. Overnight lows will dip into the upper 50s to near
60 for locations north of the Houston Metro and the mid to upper 60s
along and south of the I-10 corridor. Some patchy fog is possible
again overnight and into tomorrow morning, especially at the coast,
but most fog development this evening should be confined to the
coastal waters/bays.

Warm and humid conditions prevail into tomorrow with highs in the
lower 80s and dew points again breaking the 70 degree mark.
Increasing low-level cloud cover as a result of the shift back to
onshore flow will work to inhibit afternoon heating somewhat. As lee
cyclogenesis deepens the pressure gradient over the South Central
CONUS, winds could get a bit breezy by the afternoon with gusts
possibly reaching as high as 20 mph or so. Overnight lows tomorrow
night are unlikely to drop below 70 for most locations.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

By midweek, a large upper level trough over the west central U.S.
will be amplifying with embedded mid/upper shortwaves moving
across Texas in the downstream SW flow aloft. This flow pattern
will support a chance of storms across NW areas on Wed/Thu. By
Friday, the deep upper tough will begin edging closer to SE Texas
and rain chances will begin to increase, especially across
western areas with deep moisture in place. The best chance for
showers and storms areawide will be on Saturday ahead of a strong
cold front that is expected to push through the region during the
aft and evening hours. We may see some strong storms along and
ahead of the boundary on Saturday, stay tuned for more on that as
we get closer to the weekend.

We will see quite the change in temperatures behind the cold front.
Ahead of the front we will see max temps 85 to 90 Wed-Fri, then
only reaching the 60s on Sun. Min temps will fall well below
normal into the 40s to begin next week. Will also see the chance
for rain continue on Sunday behind the cold front with the
mid/upper trough axis hanging back to the west of the area.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Light north winds remain in place across much of the area as a
very weak cold front lingers near the coast. Cloud decks will
continue to scatter out into the late afternoon and early evening,
with variable winds developing overnight before transitioning to a
persistent southeast wind by early morning. MVFR cigs, along with
some patchy fog, will develop heading into tomorrow morning.
Onshore flow will increase into tomorrow afternoon, with some
gusty conditions possible.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Expecting to see areas of sea fog redevelop tonight and into
Tuesday morning as a weak, stalled boundary nearby will cause
light/variable winds increasing the fog development potential.
Southeasterly winds around 15kt will begin on Tuesday, which
combined with rising temperatures should limit fog development
Tuesday night - but, a few patches of fog are still a possibility.
Onshore flow will strengthen further to around 20kt by Wednesday
and continue through Thursday. The persistent moderate to strong
onshore winds will also lead to increasing wave heights midweek to
around 4-8ft on Wednesday and then 6-10ft by Thursday and
continuing into the weekend. A cold front will bring strong
offshore flow on Saturday night and Sunday.

Wood

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 57 82 70 85 / 0 0 10 20
Houston (IAH) 64 81 71 86 / 0 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 69 78 70 79 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Wood
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Wood